Skip to comments.LA-04 Open Thread (Fleming (R) v Carmouche (D))
Posted on 12/06/2008 7:12:05 PM PST by St. Louis Conservative
Live results here.
Not encouraging so far... though Cao is starting off nicely.
Though looking at the breakdown that includes a lot of the Jefferson area.
Looks like a loss. Fleming is down 3% with only about 100 precincts to come in. Unless there are a lot of GOP votes outstanding. Fleming is going down and going down very hard. Caddo parish is only half in and it’s 2-1 for Carmouche.
Carmouche has about a 2,000 vote lead, but strongly Republican Bossier Parish has only 10 out of 75 precincts in, and Caddo Parish has only 27 precincts left out. But in this low-turnout environment, it’s tough to say whether Bossier can close this gap.
I believe Louisiana is like Georgia, you have to get 50% plus one to avoid a runoff, don’t think Carmouche is going to make that.
|Parish||William J. Jefferson||Malik Rahim||Gregory W. Kahn||Anh "Joseph" Cao|
|Jefferson, 59 of 100
Click here for Results by Precinct
|Orleans, 80 of 392
Click here for Results by Precinct
A plurality is enough to win outright here.
I stand corrected.
|7,764||38.73%||William J. Jefferson, D||-|
|444||2.22%||Malik Rahim, G||-|
|178||.89%||Gregory W. Kahn, L||-|
|11,658||58.16%||Anh "Joseph" Cao, R||-|
U. S. Representative, 4th Congressional District
557 of 640 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
|38,219||49.22%||Paul J. Carmouche, D||-|
|36,249||46.68%||John Fleming, R||-|
|583||.75%||Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., O||-|
|2,598||3.35%||Chester T. "Catfish" Kelley, N||-|
Remember though Carmouche is very socially conservative, even if he wins, it’s not as bad as it might first seem.
Looks like Catfish cost them the majority. don’t know who his supporters are but he could end up being the “Perot” in this one.
Unfortunately, Bossier is highly unlikely to have enough votes to erase the Rat’s lead.
Take a look at the some of the individual precincts in Caddo Parish (Shreveport). There are plenty where the votes are about 200-0 (yes, literally ZERO for the Republican) in favor of the Rat.
Those sure are some well-trained monkeys....
Yeah, this one’s done. I knew it’d go this way. Divided Republican base, bad candidate, etc. Four for Four: LA-05 in 02, LA-03 in 04, LA-06 and LA-04 both this year. (We did get two of those back, though)
Dang, “Frozen Assets” Jefferson is sure getting a scare. He’s even behind in Orleans Parish by around 200 votes.
How do liberal Democrats win races like these? McCery won by 20 pts every time. Now we have a left-winger who SAYS he’s conservative on abortion and guns and wins?
That's pretty much the only way that the Dems have been able to pick off GOP seats in any but the most left-leaning districts - by running to the Right of the Republican on social issues.
Which - one would think - should be instructive to the "dump the social conservatives" crowd of liberaltarians that helped cost us elections this year.
603 of 640 precincts reporting:
Carmouche 41,794 49%
Fleming 39,936 46.82%
All remaining precincts are in Bossier Parish. Fleming currently has 4,750-2,954 lead in that parish.
Not trying for false optimism here, but this MAY not be over yet:
100% of Caddo is now in and Carmouche is up by 1,800 votes overall.
50% of Bossier is in, and Fleming won the first 50% by: 1,800 votes.
All other Parishes are in.
278 of 492 precincts reporting:
Cao (R) 20,203 53.90%
Jefferson (D) 15,898 42.42%
14 precints left in Jefferson Parish. Cao has 4,100+ vote lead in that parish.
200 precincts left in Orleans Parish. Cao has 227 vote lead in Orleans Parish.