Well I backed Johnnie Byrd in that Senate race, citing concerns about McCollum's electablity (check my FL Senate posts in 2004), so I can't eat crow on that one. I did react angrily to the freepers who called McCollum "RINO" and said McCollum is more conservative than the lying trial lawyer Martinez will ever be, so I'm serving crow on that one.
>> He won AG in a relatively low-profile race, but he got swept in on the ticket. He would’ve had to run alone in ‘04, and he did that in ‘00 and still lost. <
I think the jury is out on whether McCollum could have pulled off a "win" in 2004. First off, you keep acting like the Dems had a big name candidate when in reality they were stuck with the third tier candidacy of Betty Castro. Second, McCollum is no Oberweis who loses statewide over and over again. He seems to have learned from his bumbling 2002 campaign and ran a much better race in 2006, but he still does come across with a nerdy persona and is certainly not the FL GOP's star player. In short he's not my first choice by any means but if it was a two man race of him or a RINO I'd take my chances with McCollum.
In short I don't either Martinez or McCollum had any better chance of "winning" in 2004 (in hindsight, my guess is they both would have squeezed by with 51%), but given the events of 2002 it's certainly understandable that freepers were hestitant to back McCollum again. He hadn't established himself as A.G. yet. Where they erred was backing Martinez when there were six other highly competant conservatives in that primary.
What you seem to be ignoring,Field, is that not only did McCollum win by a higher percentage statewide than Martinez, but he won bigger in the HUGE Democrat turnout year of 2006, which as you no doubt reminded us was truly unprecedented because no sitting RAT was even defeated that year. Martinez, on the other hand, squeezed by in the GOP friendly 2004 election, mainly on Bush's coattails. Bush polled FAR ahead of Martinez in Florida that year -- the exact OPPOSITE of what Mel's fans predicted would happen (they said we needed to run Martinez because his pull in the Cuban community would "carry" Bush to victory)
So the "having a guy with a Cuban last name magically makes him more electable" crowd needs to eat crow as well, as the anglo name "Bush" was more endearing to FL voters. Guess they care more about a candidate's credentials than their ethnicty (though sadly, GOP primary voters cared more about the latter)
>> Martinez did appear to be better, and did score (amazingly) a 100 from the ACU, but he literally lost his mind on immigration. <<
I don't think Jeb Bush would be much better than Martinez on immigration, though I'd prefer Bush for the simple reason that he'd be a competant Senator who would actually get things done and not embarrass the hell out of the FL GOP (which Martinez began doing on day one when he "accidentially" handed the Terri Schaivo talking points memo to the Dems and gave the nation's first speech "en espanol" on the floor of the U.S. Senate in a shameful attempt to pander to TV cameras). In other words, the problem isn't so much that Martinez is a RINO (he's pretty good on issues besides immigration), it's that he is a empty suit loser who got his job because of affirmation action. And let this be a lesson to the GOP to back the most qualified person next time.
>> A Cuban Republican was worthy of getting a Senate seat here, just not THIS Cuban. <<
I agree. Which is why you are eating crow for backing this embarrassing doofus in the primary. It's not different than rooting for America will elect a black man president one day to prove race is not a barrier to presidency, but refusing to back THIS black candidate in 2008 because he will do more harm than good to race relations.
America would have eventually gotten an Cuban Senator and I would have welcomed it. But 2004 was not the time and Martinez was not the right candidate. And I resent being called "racist" by some of Martinez's more ardent RINO supporters because I wouldn't back THEIR Cuban.
I personally wish Daniel Webster had entered the race, though.
My biggest concern was electibility as well, and also seeing an opportunity as well to place a Hispanic in the Senate at a time when this party has had a terrible (sometimes willfully so) problem of lacking for non-Caucasians in elective office. McCollum simply, to me, was a no-go. It didn't have to with complaints about his record, it was just that I believed completely he couldn't win the general. And I still don't believe he would've.
"I think the jury is out on whether McCollum could have pulled off a "win" in 2004. First off, you keep acting like the Dems had a big name candidate when in reality they were stuck with the third tier candidacy of Betty Castro."
Third-rate maybe, but she was second-tier. Third would've been a nuisance candidate with no chance of winning. But Dems have done well with Senate races in FL, that has to be acknowledged. McCollum, had he gotten closer to 49% would've had perhaps a better argument for running, but 46% was a bit too low, running behind the Bush ticket. Nelson would've beaten him by 7% were it not for a Black Democrat Independent, and still a fairly decisive victory, all things considered. McCollum also was suffering from a condition I cited about long-term Congressmembers making the jump from the House to the Senate (in his case, 20 years), and hadn't really had to run any strong races. Nelson, conversely had already won statewide. He was clearly a stronger candidate. At best, Castor and McCollum were potentially evenly-matched, but McCollum's race in 2000 was simply so subpar, Martinez looked like a more exciting and electable candidate. Of course, we should be grateful Katherine Harris didn't muscle her way onto the ticket, that would've ended up almost exactly the same as '06.
"Second, McCollum is no Oberweis who loses statewide over and over again. He seems to have learned from his bumbling 2002 campaign and ran a much better race in 2006, but he still does come across with a nerdy persona and is certainly not the FL GOP's star player. In short he's not my first choice by any means but if it was a two man race of him or a RINO I'd take my chances with McCollum."
You meant 2000, and this is still all hindsight. It would've been interesting to see how McCollum would've fared just as a theory, but I still have a nagging suspicion that Castor would've edged him by a very narrow margin, perhaps under 1%. I'll say, too, a lot of Cubans might've also been outraged had Martinez been beaten by McCollum, too, and sat it out, or voted for Castor in protest (her name notwithstanding).
"In short I don't either Martinez or McCollum had any better chance of "winning" in 2004 (in hindsight, my guess is they both would have squeezed by with 51%), but given the events of 2002 it's certainly understandable that freepers were hestitant to back McCollum again. He hadn't established himself as A.G. yet. Where they erred was backing Martinez when there were six other highly competant conservatives in that primary."
Billy, I think you're confused here. McCollum was out of office for 6 years. He didn't win AG until 2006. He didn't run for any office in '02. Martinez won with 49% to Castor's 48%. Martinez won a fairly decisive plurality in a multi-candidate field in '04 as well, winning 45-31% over McCollum. That was a pretty clear indication that the primary voters believed McCollum an unimpressive retread. Johnnie Byrd only got a paltry 6%, coming in 4th behind a businessman named Doug Gallagher (who got 14%).
"What you seem to be ignoring,Field, is that not only did McCollum win by a higher percentage statewide than Martinez, but he won bigger in the HUGE Democrat turnout year of 2006, which as you no doubt reminded us was truly unprecedented because no sitting RAT was even defeated that year."
You're talking about federal races, though. The GOP picked a few downballot statewide races here and there (SC & NE were two that came to mind). But this was an open race, and the GOP was pretty much in good shape in FL with the goodwill from a popular outgoing Governor and we already dominated the statewide offices. McCollum won on the popularity of Jeb and with Crist, whose office for whom McCollum was pursuing. The Dems put up a respectable candidate, but probably just on the line between first and second-tier.
"Martinez, on the other hand, squeezed by in the GOP friendly 2004 election, mainly on Bush's coattails. Bush polled FAR ahead of Martinez in Florida that year -- the exact OPPOSITE of what Mel's fans predicted would happen (they said we needed to run Martinez because his pull in the Cuban community would "carry" Bush to victory)"
Well, I certainly hope Dubya would've done better than Martinez as an incumbent. Polling data indicated it was going to be a close Senate race, and it was. Castor, too, had also already won statewide before, twice, in 1986 and 1990, and by fairly impressive margins (in her last race for Education Commissioner, she beat none other than ex-Gov. Claude Kirk). This was Martinez's first run statewide.
"So the "having a guy with a Cuban last name magically makes him more electable" crowd needs to eat crow as well, as the anglo name "Bush" was more endearing to FL voters. Guess they care more about a candidate's credentials than their ethnicty (though sadly, GOP primary voters cared more about the latter)"
Well, as I cited above, Martinez struck me as a very promising individual, and I supported him. Did his ethnicity play a role ? Yes, it did. Had he just been another Caucasian, he likely wouldn't have had the kind of rise that he did (surely wouldn't have been plucked away to a Cabinet post).
"I don't think Jeb Bush would be much better than Martinez on immigration, though I'd prefer Bush for the simple reason that he'd be a competant Senator who would actually get things done and not embarrass the hell out of the FL GOP (which Martinez began doing on day one when he "accidentially" handed the Terri Schaivo talking points memo to the Dems and gave the nation's first speech "en espanol" on the floor of the U.S. Senate in a shameful attempt to pander to TV cameras). In other words, the problem isn't so much that Martinez is a RINO (he's pretty good on issues besides immigration), it's that he is a empty suit loser who got his job because of affirmation action. And let this be a lesson to the GOP to back the most qualified person next time."
Then again, he might've turned into a giant. We don't know until we see them in action. Unless there is something glaring in their background and public record that would indicate disqualification, I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. If I make an error in my assessment, it tends to be because I didn't necessarily know enough about their background. I feel more embarrassed my endorsement for Crist over Tom Gallagher, for example. But Gallagher's supporters were the die-hard KHers, and nevermind their disgusting treatment of me for merely telling the truth, I worried Gallagher's close connection would see us lose the Governorship since her unpopularity would rub off on him. In hindsight, and as I believe I said at the time, I'd have preferred different Gubernatorial candidates, such as Frank Brogan or Toni Jennings. Crist has turned out to be, aside from his picks for the FL Supremes, a fiasco.
"I agree. Which is why you are eating crow for backing this embarrassing doofus in the primary. It's not different than rooting for America will elect a black man president one day to prove race is not a barrier to presidency, but refusing to back THIS black candidate in 2008 because he will do more harm than good to race relations."
"America would have eventually gotten an Cuban Senator and I would have welcomed it. But 2004 was not the time and Martinez was not the right candidate. And I resent being called "racist" by some of Martinez's more ardent RINO supporters because I wouldn't back THEIR Cuban."
Again, we had to go on the information we had at the time, and he looked like the most promising of what was running. Absent Martinez, the first Cuban Senator would've been the leftist asshat Bob Menendez of NJ. Of course, Martinez does illustrate my disillusionment with a lot of our Republican pols, that we shouldn't pour our hopes and dreams into them, because they are quite likely to let us down. Even Tom Coburn did on the bailout.
"I personally wish Daniel Webster had entered the race, though."
Hey, I wish Connie Mack hadn't retired in 2000. He could've retired after a year and allowed Jeb to appoint someone that would've won the '02 special, and we might've ended up with both seats now (and still would've had the Senate, at least until January).