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Posted on 12/20/2008 10:31:53 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Remember that scene in the sci-fi movie “TimeCop”?
When the villain (played by Ron Silver) sends one of his minions back to 1929 to buy up stock in companies dirt cheap that will be worth zillions in the future?
Nope, I think this is a coming depression. A deflationary credit contraction followed in about eight months by hyperinflation. The problem is that the Fed is pumping enormous amounts of money out there, plus Obama’s bailout and No-Energy policies will also monkey wrench the system. M2 is apparently growing at 12% right now. I just see no silver lining for five years.
I wouldn’t call it excessive pessimism, but the end of excessive optimism.
When others lose their jobs, it’s a recession. When you lose your job, it’s a depression.
My financial investor thinks this talk of depression is overstated and 4Q09 we’re growing again if not sooner. This is like the Dotcom bust and will just take some time to recover.
Fortunately, our president-elect seems to realize that. Barack Obama campaigned on the promise to repeal the 2003 tax cuts rather than just let them expire naturally in 2011. Now he's let it be known that he won't be repealing them, so taxes are going to stay low -- on incomes, dividends and capital gains. I never thought I'd be so glad to see a politician break a campaign promise.
America 1930 is the wrong analogy. See Germany in the 1920's.
“My financial investor thinks this talk of depression is overstated and 4Q09 we’re growing again if not sooner.”
Is his on commission? LOL!!
yeah, sure.
And this from the people who gave me all that great financial advice that has my retirement tanking. LOL!
Buy a little gold as an inflation hedge, both paper and physical. Worse case scenario is you lose a little money down the road. Otherwise, buy lots of canned goods.
8+ trillion in bailout promises, just to keep this economy afloat? This is far more serious then a recession.
Right now, we are in a deflationary cycle — the first since The Great Depression.
Just wait till February, this downturn is far from over...
Yep, the Germans inflated to get out of war reparations. The US will inflate to get out of the enormous treasury debt.
Of course your investment advisor has nothing to gain by making you believe this??
This, from the guy who claimed that the “bottom was in” on the stock market on (ready for this) November 30th, 2007.
This, from the guy who said in July of 2007, that the “bears are in for a disappointment.”
This, from the guy who said in August of 2007 that Bernanke “hasn’t cut the Fed funds rate and why he isn’t going to...”
Luskin is a fool and an idiot. He is one of the two types of people on Wall Street who can and will cost you EVERYTHING: The “perma-bull.” The other type who can and will cost you everything is the “perma-bear.”
Both of these types of idiots just refuse to observe facts. They cannot accept that there a) is a business cycle, b) there is a real estate cycle, c) there is a commodity cycle, and that there is a time to be bullish and a time to be bearish.
Right now is a really good time to be bearish.
And yes, we’re increasingly looking at the possibility of a depression, where “depression” is variously defined in a number of ways, but one of the ways is that unemployment goes over 10% for four quarters. I think that is increasingly probable - the world simply has too much production capacity and much of it has been financed by the US consumer going ever deeper into debt.
Well, the US consumer has finally broken his back, carrying the weight of the US and Chinese economies.
America 1873 is a better analogy yet.
What will you IA lose if he is wrong? As much as you will?
No. We’ll see what happens. With all the hedge fund slugs pouring gasoline on the fire these downturns become more and exaggerated. How one views this depends on their investment horizon. Those people starting out and getting their first home now and starting to invest have a great buying opportunity over the next year. On the other hand those getting ready to retire and still fully invested are in a difficult pinch.
No. I should have made that more clear - its an investment newsletter and use him as an advisor. I manage my own money.
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