They Called It Right (These eight experts tried to warn Wall Street about the storm.)

Kiplinger ^ | December 22, 2008 | Elizabeth Ody

[CalifScreaming]

Who saw the financial meltdown of 2008 coming? Why the bears, of course. Kiplinger's Personal Finance went back to see which investors, analysts and academics made the right predictions about the market and economy in 2008 and asked each for their 2009 outlook. Although some, like Jeremy Grantham, see hope for 2009, these Cassandras remain a dour bunch. As for us, we expect that the recession will end in mid-2009 and that stocks could gain 5% to 8% for the year (see Outlook 2009).

[Aquinasfan]

As for us, we expect that the recession will end in mid-2009 and that stocks could gain 5% to 8% for the year (see Outlook 2009).

I see Jimmy Carter II. The economy will be flat for four years.

Gold will do well though, just as it did in 1979.

[editor-surveyor]

"Gold will do well though, just as it did in 1979."

This isn't 1979. Nothing like it. Gold will do ok for a few weeks, until the Euro caves to the return to the Dollar as the undisputed world currency during the deflationary adjustment we are undeniably in for the next two or three years. Gold will have to adjust; then it will resume its rise when inflation is restored (restoration of inflation is the chief purpose of the 'bailouts.')

[HamiltonJay]

we expect that the recession will end in mid-2009 and that stocks could gain 5% to 8% for the year

Wishful thinking.

[Larry Lucido]

When the earth ends, there will be eight experts who stood around carrying signs saying “The End is Near” who were right, too.

Now I’m not saying these guys didn’t have insight, but for just about EVERY major event, someone predicted it in the last 20 years or so.

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

“Gold will do well though, just as it did in 1979.”
***This isn't 1979. Nothing like it. ***

Gold went up because of the Iranian hostage crisis. When Reagan came in gold took a dive.

[editor-surveyor]

And your point is?????

[ottbmare]

A friend who has some connections with the smart international money warned me in 2004 about the housing collapse and the resultant recession.

He is now warning me that things are going to get far worse. I’m sorry to say that his track record is very good.

[editor-surveyor]

"but for just about EVERY major event, someone predicted it in the last 20 years or so"

Our current situation is not an 'event,' but a series of linked domino-like events, that were accurately predicted by one, and only one person: Larry Bates.

[Aquinasfan]

Gold will have to adjust; then it will resume its rise when inflation is restored (restoration of inflation is the chief purpose of the 'bailouts.')

I don't see congress cutting taxes or spending at any time over the next four years. What's left, besides inflating the money supply?

[ikka]

My understanding was that gold went up because there was speculation that Reagan was going to restore the Dollar to using lawful money (gold and silver) instead of the un-Constitutional Federal Reserve Notes that we have now.

[Aquinasfan]

Gold went up because of the Iranian hostage crisis.

Gold was a refuge from inflation, which was running at 13%.

When Reagan came in gold took a dive.

Yes, but not because of the hostage crisis. Investors expected an end to inflation because of Reagan's expected fiscal policies.

[Clioman]

Sorta reminds me of a cynic’s definition of an economist: someone who predicted nine of the last four recessions.

[Uncle Miltie]

In Re: Bears

"They called three of the last fifteen recessions correctly."

[depressed in 06]

My advice is to find something to invest in that does not have the government involved. Cocaine will be the last capitalist market in the world. Go out and find the drug dealers and invest with them, since, the dOpey-One is going to provide their customers with tremendous amounts of cash.

[Jack Black]

I don’t know about Larry Bates but Peter Schiff got it right in many particulars. So did the guys at Daily Reckoning in their book Financial Reckoning Day.

[jveritas]

If the recession ends by Mid-2009 then this would have been a mild recession. I hope that this is right for the sake of everyone but I am afraid that it may take us a lot longer than that to recover.

Also I expect that Obama, his media and their economic experts to change the definition of a recession in 2009 and all the way during Obama presidency. If the stocks go up slightly then there would be no recession even if the GDP growth is negative.

[VaBthang4]

Nouriel Roubini is the man.

[VaBthang4]

"...accurately predicted by one, and only one person: Larry Bates."

???

Did you read Nouriel Roubini's statement?

[Fee]

I see depression for atleast ten years, Argentinian style government policy. The borrow and spend expansion economy of the US based on consuming and not producing is over and left the US broke but supported by printing of dollars. Deflation is first as huge inventory of products must be liquidated at low prices followed by hyper inflation as the excess printing of US dollars will catch up. The world fiancial system is collapsing (government and international bankers cannot control the process) and a new one will form in its place (nature of it is unknown). It is going to be very rough for those who have debt (mortgages, equity loans, credit card balances). Organize your family, street and town for the coming storm, that is the only way we will survive the coming crime wave, riots, and service disruptions.