Posted on 01/02/2009 8:12:18 AM PST by maquiladora
More on the Yellowstone earthquake swarm at the supervolcano caldera. First, this piece of database analysis from an IT guy at Splunk puts the swarm into scary perspective:
I'm sending you this email with some information I've gleaned from the USGS archives. I'm analyzing the ANSS data (http://www.ncedc.org/cnss/) in an install of Splunk, which is a timeline based search and reporting engine. I have 30 years of data in the system, with about 2M quakes total. It makes doing graphs and adhoc investigations faster than dealing with the USGS limited search forms. Disclaimer: I work for Splunk as their evangelist, and spend a lot of time studying various timeline based textual data and writing interesting apps for the software. I am not an earthquake expert by any means.
Using the ANSS data, I discovered the number of 2.5 or higher quakes in the *general* Yellowstone area for the decade of the 1980s was 128. The number of 2.5 or higher quakes for the region directly around the lake in the *last 4 days* was 30.
Again, for 2.5 mag or greater quakes: Entire region of Yellowstone for 10 years = 128 quakes Area just around Yellowstone Lake last 4 Days = 30 quakes
The entire 1980s of 2.5 or higher quakes in the vicinity of the lake was a paltry 4 quakes. Doing a quick back of the envelope calculation using the number of quakes and the intesities, the activity over the last 4 days has released roughly 100x the amount of energy released in the entire 1980s for the same general region. In the last week alone there have been 10 quakes of magnitude 3.0 or greater around the lake, with one as high as 3.8.
Also here is a pretty good summary of events from the Yellowstone Volcano Obervatory:
December 2008 Yellowstone Earthquake And Ground Deformation Summary
Earthquake Summary:
Yellowstone seismicity increased significantly in December 2008 due to an energetic earthquake swarm that commenced on December 26. This swarm, a sequence of earthquakes clustered in space and time, is occurring beneath the northern part of Yellowstone Lake in Yellowstone National Park. As of this writing, the largest of these earthquakes was a magnitude 3.9 at 10:15 pm MST on Dec. 27. Through 5:00 pm MST on Dec. 31, the sequence had included 12 events of magnitude 3.0 to 3.9 and approximately 20 of magnitude 2.5 to 2.9, with a total of at least 400 events large enough to be located (magnitude ~1 or larger). National Park Service (NPS) employees and visitors have reported feeling the largest of these earthquakes in the area around Yellowstone Lake and at Old Faithful and Grant Village.
The hypocenters of the swarm events cluster along a north-south-trending zone that is about 7 km long. The vast majority of the focal depths are shallower than 5 km. It is not possible to identify a causative fault of other feature without further analysis.
Analysts are currently processing the backlog of seismic data from these events. The current analyst-processed catalog is believed to include all events of magnitude 2.5 and greater through Dec 31 at 5 pm MST, but hundreds of earthquakes remain to be processed. The total of more than 400 locatable events is based on automatically-determined locations and magnitudes for the swarm events.
The December 2008 earthquake sequence is the most intense in this area for some years. No damage has been reported within Yellowstone National Park, nor would any be expected from earthquakes of this size. The swarm is in a region of historical earthquake activity and is close to areas of Yellowstone famous hydrothermal activity. Similar earthquake swarms have occurred in the past in Yellowstone without triggering steam explosions or volcanic activity. Nevertheless, there is some potential for hydrothermal explosions and earthquakes may continue or increase in magnitude. There is a much lower potential for related volcanic activity.
The National Park Service in Yellowstone has been kept fully informed of the ongoing seismic activity via electronic means and by phone contacts with the University of Utah and the U.S. Geological Survey USGS). The Wyoming Office of Homeland Security is reviewing Earthquake Response Plans and monitoring seismic activity.
30, 2.5 mag or larger quakes in 4 days is worrisome.............
She’s gonna blow!
“Mark my words...”
Women and minorities will be hardest hit.
Next we’ll need to bail out the earthwquake.
After all we need to run up the tax bill as high as possible. It doesn’t matter if it doesn’t make sense.
I hear liberal papers now want a “bail out”.
BTW, as of right now I am out of the "danger zone" in mid Wisconsin.
That is probably correct,
I’d like to know what the condition/temp of the lake is right now but IIRC it is essentially frozen over.
From here I can’t get the webcams (grrr, grrrr)
I know it is wishfull thinking but I’m hoping that this is just a steam event but from the depth of the quakes (.4km to 3.5km) something appears to be moving, most likey magama, and it’s moving up where the lake is.
this bears watching.
r
I hope you're joking (about worrying.)
Only about your money................
Good point. I can’t imagine Zero handling this well at all.
Well, we are due...
Ok, not an expert on this at all, maybe someone with more knowledge on this can answer this, just looking at the chart for today so far ( http://www.quake.utah.edu/helicorder/yml_webi.htm ) and it seems very ‘noisy’ compared to the previous days. Does that looks strange or is it because of something artifical in the background?
Bump for later. If you have a ping list, please add me. All kidding aside...this is very serious.
"When the geiser activity changes they will really start to worry."
I would, too..........
I hope Yogi and Bubu are OK.
No we're not.
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/about/faq/faqactivity.php#notoverdue
Is it true that the next caldera-forming eruption of Yellowstone is overdue?
No. First of all, one cannot present recurrence intervals based on only two values. It would be statistically meaningless. But for those who insist... let's do the arithmetic. The three eruptions occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million and 0.64 million years ago. The two intervals are thus 0.8 and 0.66 million years, averaging to a 0.73 million-year interval. Again, the last eruption was 0.64 million years ago, implying that we are still about 90,000 years away from the time when we might consider calling Yellowstone overdue for another caldera-forming eruption. Nevertheless, we cannot discount the possibility of another such eruption occurring some time in the future, given Yellowstone's volcanic history and the continued presence of magma beneath the Yellowstone caldera.
If a lava channel opens up, it would be better that it NOT open up under the lake, resulting in the lake contents meeting with lava resulting in a steam explosion.
Actually, you're not. The ash/debris will head generally in your direction and bury you deep.
Is that taking into consideration Global Warming?
Have no fear! Ranger Woodlore and Humphrey are monitoring the lake!
huh?
I can. For the first time in the five years I’ve been stuck here, I am happy to be in Upstate NY. Although, if some FReeper predictions are true, I’d rather be fishing on Yellowstone Lake when she blows.
Thanks Stratergerist for the voice of reason on this subject matter.
Here are the last 3 ash falls from Yellowstone,
got shovels? ;-)
It’s in the public side of TB2K
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=316369
post #13
I’m not sure why I can’t attact it here.
r
(Posting from USNews site)
Thank you for reporting on this issue. I was reading an older article (2007?) in which a volcanologist was interviewed about the likelihood of an eruption at Yellowstone.
He said there would be a number of precursors to an event that size, the very first being EARTHQUAKE SWARMS. Then after weeks or months of those, gas expulsion would increase and the ground in the area would change shape rapidly.
So I don’t know why this is not a bigger story. It seems like an issue everyone should be covering, and you are the only one I can find that has been keeping up with the situation. Thanks, and keep up the good work.
Vince of IL
Jan 02, 2009 11:16:31 AM [permalink] [report comment]
Hey there! I own a farm near the Marathon/Clark/Taylor county “intersection”, where are you located?
Scroll down a ways and there is a rendering of the ash deposits from the super eruptions in the US. The two largest were Yellowstone, the third largest was from California, near the Nevada border just south of the Reno area (Long Valley Caldera).
You’ll get far better information off the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory website than TB2K.
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/
Amusing a website named after a hilarious disaster prediction failure like TB2K is still around.
Just for arguments sake...and to stir the pot a little...because thats what I do.
Between the first known and second eruption is .8 million, between the second and third .66 mill. Following that the time between the third and fourth should be .52 million, which means we are overdue by 120,000 years.
This is hugh and series.
We're all going to DIE!!!!!!!!
Women and minorities hurt the most.
Its all BUSH'S FAULT.
Bad things will happen somewhere at some time. Bet on it. [I’m not a prognosticator, but I did sleep in a hotel last night.]
I have to admit, this is kind of worriesome.
What is the source for this chart?
Thank you, for posting it.
We stopped by New Madrid, Missouri the other day and saw a US map showing a major earthquake around Yellowstone, 3 in Nevada, and several in California/Alaska. IIRC, the Yellowstone earthquake was centered to the northwest of the park and formed a new lake in the canyons there.
The earquake swarms are certainly newsworthy but they don't necessarily mean an impending eruption. We have had previous episodes of earthquake swarms at Yellowstone the last being, I think, in 1985. See Strategerists link to the the USGS analysis of these swarms.
However, making too big an issue about this will only unnecessarily scare people. The fact is, there isn't a damn thing we can do to prevent the horrific destruction should yellowstone erupt superstyle. However, creating a public panic over this, and the ensuring destruction that might cause, can be prevented by a sensible approach.
Maybe Texas should be more worried than Wisconsin.
The last nine quakes have all been over 2.0, with two of them being over 3.0
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/US2/43.45.-112.-110_eqs.php
Thank you, for posting it.
You're quite welcome. I got it here:
http://www.tetonwyo.org/em/nav/201723.asp?date=7/9/2008
Lots of interesting data on that site.
And just FYI, experts predict that along with women and minorities, White Lions may be hardest hit...
First, Texas doesn't worry about anything.
Second, Texas has one fewer Feingold representing it in the Senate than Wisconsin does.
We'll take our chances with a mega-volcano over a Democrat in Congress any day.
That looks like a Pokemon...
You can not count on the ash to fall in the pattern that is illustrated on that MSM illustration. It does not take into account how wind and weather patterns have changed over the last 600,000 years nor the motion of the continent.
If Yellowstone blew it’s top today look at where the jet stream would take the ash off to.
You won’t have to pay your mortgage if Yellowstone erupts...Your mortgage company will be toast and so will their records, most of which are stored in “safe” vaults in the Rockie Mountains...............
From what I’ve studied about this volcano, none of Wisconsin is out of the danger zone? The ash fall out would be up to 1 meter as far away as western Indianna. Even here in SE Ohio we’d get up to 5 mm of ash which if it gets wet becomes virtually cement.
thank you for the response.
“Fare thee well”
Nifty - the picture updates when you hit F5 - it went from 296 at 10:05 to 297 at 11:00:03.
And there’s been a 3.4 within the past hour, biggest since Wednesday.
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