Posted on 01/03/2009 7:15:36 AM PST by stylin_geek
Whew. Now that 2008 is in the history books, $8.5 trillion in federal bailout money is in the pipeline, and bold leadership is set to take command, Americans can all breathe a little easier, right?
Uh, no. The unhappy fact is that 2009 is almost certain to feature more economic hardship than the year that preceded it. President-elect Barack Obama may think he has steeled himself and his administration for this outcome, but three major factors argue against Obama truly being prepared for what's to come.
Insane expectations. It was no mistake that Vice President-elect Joe Biden was dispatched to try to dampen surging overseas expectations that the Obama presidency will quickly reverse American actions around the globe. But a similar threat lurks domestically, where the federal government under Obama will be expected to correct every dislocation from the confused Bush years—all while providing free health care and full employment.
(Excerpt) Read more at reason.com ...
I look for martial law sometime in the next four years at some level of government.
Yeah wait and see what change and hope really mean when it comes to actually having to run things.
Obambi to the ruin!
He does end on a high note though.
"In 2009, market forces will punish the human hubris that peaked in 2008, setting the stage for a brighter tomorrow.
Invest in Lead.
The economic enema is on the horizon. We just have constipation right now.
1) Consider the possibility of scrapping our current income tax system in favor of a low-percentage no-deductions flat tax or a true consumption tax on new-production goods like FairTax. This would save Americans hundreds of billions of dollars per year in compliance costs and if we implement something like FairTax the savings rate will rocket through the roof because there will be NO tax consequences to saving and investing your assets.
2) The implementation of various forms of excise taxation to discourage the consumption of certain goods. For example, buying a new car could have excise tax rates anywhere from 0% (if you buy an all-electric car) to as high as 25% (if you buy a high-end gas-guzzling luxury car). I mean, would you buy a new Rolls-Royce Phantom limousine costing US$400,000 if you have to pay an excise tax of US$100,000 in addition to the sticker price? The lobbyists will be fighting over excise taxation instead of over income tax breaks.
3) Considering the idea to eventually tie the US dollar back to a mix of precious metals again, given the problems with fiat money.
4) We may see the merger of the US dollar, Canadian dollar and Mexican peso by 2020 in an organized fashion to create a stronger, more stable currency that can compete against the Euro. I would not be surprised that Asian countries may be considering something similar, too.
5) There will be MASSIVE reforms to stabilize the financial markets. Expect minimum margin requirements to start at 20% and be as high as 35% for trading in strategic materials and financial companies. Much of the onerous Sarbanes-Oxley Act will be repealed in favor of the higher requirements I mentioned earlier. We may see a return to many provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act, which means brokerage companies can't have holdings in banks and vice versa (but there will be provisions for fast money transfers between banks and brokerage companies).
And enforced by the Obamafuehrer’s “Civilian Defense Force.”
Obama cannot begin to live up to the hype about his election. The people were sold on his fuzzy promises of change and every special interest group expects him to deliver on the promises he made. With the economy already tanking Obama’s spend your way out with massive bailouts and government make work jobs will only extend the misery. He also cannot live up to bugging out of Iraq or begging the UN for help. The MSM will of course blame Bush for creating this mess, but that won’ t hold up long when Obama fails to deliver.
The unrealistic and frankly bizarre and irrational claims by Obama during the campaign, and the kool-aid drinkers that are giving thumbs up for 2009 are just frankly, way out of touch.
Yes, 2009 will be more of the same. And then some.
I wish it weren’t true.
Only the Antichrist could fix the world’s economic problems and “solve” for Middle East peace, prior to the Return of Christ.
So if this is just some community organizer who rode unhappiness on an irrational magic carpet ride, we’re in for some tough times. And that about sums it up.
Very possible.
Agree, I look for same. I look for a setup and excuse to remove guns from honest citizens, then martial law to enforce the compliance of millions turned into criminals by mangling the 2nd amendment and whatever else is convenient for the tyrants now in power.
And be quick before it is “outlawed.” Shortages of such a commodity are now common.
AMMUNITION......the new Gold
Not to mention Hollywood finally being even more entrenched in the White House beyond their wildest dreams. I saw in a tabloid mag (yes I am pathetic) that people like Jamie Foxx and various others have invested heavily into the Inaguration Balls and bought dozens of tickets.
As of late I’ve been in a state of solid shock over this whole thing. I didn’t think something this hideous would happen.
I didn’t think I would see the day when Hollywood would be so increasingly entrenched in our political life. I thought McCain would win and we would have a dignified, gracious President and First Lady like Cindy McCain. Continue the tradition of class and decency.
I remember how sensibly the country voted for Bush over Kerry and I felt the country would do the same with McCain, choose someone substantial.
This whole thing is like Alice in Wonderland.
There are several effective ways to fix the economy but all will result in government cutting back just like the serfs. Cut capital gains to zero, tax on dividends to 5%, and cut income tax rates by 3% at all levels and make those who pay no tax, pay a very marginal low rate or else, institute a 15% flat income tax across the board for all citizens with a job—everybody pays a share, including the freeloaders (aka, Hussein voters).
Yeah, I’ve long thought the same about Obama. He’s never had to take a stand or take responsibility. Although, I’ve said that I thought he’d be found in a corner, curled up in the fetal position, sucking his thumb.
You’re a bit more circumspect than I am.
Yes. I had a very odd premonition around September, 2007. Were it not for previous experiences, I would dismiss it as indigestion. Frankly it’s preposterous; such that I *won’t* discuss it privately or publicly because it’s frankly too far-fetched. Yes it’s “out there”. I must be wrong.
But I will tell you this; over and over around May, 2001 something kept coming to me “Life will not be the same after September”. I absolutely am not making this up. But it also was kooky so I told virtually no one. I had no idea what it meant, just that it kept coming to me rather strongly multiple times. I had a new job contract scheduled to start in September so I assumed that was what it was. It wasn’t. As you know.
If somebody told me this, I wouldn’t believe them. I can assure you I’m not exaggerating or making it up. Yes it sounds kooky, very kooky, so I’ve only mentioned it on FR one other time. No point in anybody emailing me; I won’t say, unless it comes true. Close personal friends have been told as well as family.
I might only say be prepared for anything and perhaps sooner rather than later. I can’t tell you why because I absolutely do *not* know. In Sept, 2007, I figured Hillary was probably going to be our next Vice-President (that would have been my educated guess).
But I do know one thing; nobody is going to fix this economy because the revenue isn’t there. And they’re spending like drunken sailors to try and keep it alive. The U.S. will have to default on loans abroad. I see no other way.
For this reason, since about May this year, I’ve been telling people to stock up on pre-cooked food, like soup, bottled water, soda, a can opener, plastic utentils, etc. I felt it prudent. Don’t go nuts but I’ve already amassed about 90 days of granola bars, soup, water, soda pop, crackers, chips.
I may be totally wrong but taking some precautions seems right. And May was before the Russia-Georgia war, AIG, Lehman Bros, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Odumbo winning (good grief), GM/Ford/Chrysler, etc. etc. etc.
I predicted the bankruptcies of home lenders in Jan, 2008 on another forum. Found my post. However, I thought it would be September, 2009. I missed by a year.
And now we have a new Middle East war and Iran hasn’t been addressed yet.
FWIW
in my opinion i think all this doom and gloom was hyped to get the annointed one elected and the media has made it worse and i think they will switch gears once bo gets in. most of the market is way oversold and it will get better. i hope
Ray, you are right on all this. Only problem is, I’m pretty convinced that these people don’t really want to ‘fix’ this country. There are so many anti-American elements in the ‘American left’ that will keep them from ever doing what’s actually good for the country. They’re still working on bringing it down.
well, just maybe we can pull off the not natural born obama and prevent him or throw him out of office.
It would be better if you were right. Believe me, for many reasons, I would prefer your optimism.
However, I’ll say right now that home foreclosures will at least double by Fall, 2009 over 2008 rates; perhaps at least triple. Lending will be harder, it will be harder to qualify and prices will further depress, creating a new wave.
Barring war in Iran or expanding in the Middle East, gasoline will stay relatively low because inventories will back up. Yes they can cut production but the whole beast necessitates that it keep flowing so they’ll sell for less (near current prices) and be happy to get the cash.
The dollar will weaken and the EU Euro probably will continue to gain. China is going to hurt a lot because of lost business, except what they sell to Wal-Mart. McDonald’s with their $1 menu will do well. Starbucks is going to wind up closing a lot of stores around the country; hundreds I predict. No I won’t buy $4 coffee in a good economy.
These new modern strip-malls, built near the suburbs, even with big names, like Best-Buy, etc. will look like ghost towns by March, 2010. They will not generate sufficient revenue to warrant keeping the lights on and staffing. I’m already seeing quite a bit of that around me while new commercial property structures collect dust (Midwest).
More than 1,000 new car dealers will go out of business in 2009. Homes that won’t sell will have to be rented to gain some revenue.
Bookmark this thread and let’s pray I’m totally wrong. But I don’t think I am.
“and bold leadership is set to take command”
The skinny little Kenyan kid is far from “bold”. He will pee his diapers when he finds out what the job the President actually has.
The depression started in 2000. We have been trying every artificial means to stave off the effects of it every since. Printing money will not solve the problem because it is not a currency issue, but a credit issue. For the next year, credit card debt will shoot to the front as the major crisis. If anyone is in debt, I fear for their financial survival, and wish them success in getting out of debt.
Why 2009 will be worse than 2008? Obama and congress!
Just implementing FairTax to replace the totally broken Federal income tax system would do HUGE wonders for both the manufacturing and finance sectors of the country. Because of NO income taxes on earning money, that means American companies can base their economic decisions on what is best for the company, NOT what is best in terms of lowering their income tax burden. This means it would actually be cheaper to keep corporate headquarter and manufacturing operations here in the USA, because the worry now is keeping communications and transportation costs down. All those idled and abandoned manufacturing facilities will suddenly come back to life just from the lower transportation cost factor now that the income tax factor is gone. As for personal finance, with no more worries on the income tax impact on savings and investment accounts, people will end up being far more likely to save and invest, breaking the debt treadmill cycle as consumers discover it's better to save up to purchase goods either in cash or with a far smaller loan because the consumer can now afford vastly bigger down payments (we could see most loans with at minimum 30% down payments). Since consumer loan sizes are smaller, that benefits finance companies because they now stand a far better chance to getting their money back because the loan repayment amounts will be way less burdensome for the consumer.
Your age (or lack of) is showing.
As someone who barely surivived that Last Great Ice Age of the 70’s I can assure you that the cartoon is a bit off.
I’ll gladly change ages with you though! The next 40 years look pretty exciting.
Fed is forced to do rapid rate increases, Zero will raise taxes on the top 5%,causing a huge downturn as the private sector refuses to invest, waiting for the next Congressional elections. The blue states will be facing bankruptcy, and be forced to layoff 20% of the employees, unemployment will skyrocket, they'll successfully pass a huge gov. health care bill and within 3 months people will be screaming at what a nightmare it is. Media will start daily hospital service denial misery stories, huge anger and unrest will set in as all the layoffs will be democrat state employees, and the whiners looking for free health are angry lib minorities.
2010 will be the explosion of a great depression, with the Bush tax cuts expiring, Dollar crashing, trillion dollar deficits every quarter. Zero will accelerate his attempts at a Marxist agenda, and people will begin to see what a worthless, angry racist communist he is, and that his agenda has done nothing for the economy.
Acorn will steal the congressional elections, sealing the depression. A few years later, SS goes negative, and the US will start defaulting on its obligations. Medicare goes bust shortly thereafter, leaving seniors without SS or healthcare. The deficit is unrecoverable at that point. Game over.
I'm actually an eternal optimist in life, but this story was written 15 years ago, it just takes time to play out.
Bush 41 never spent much time explaining fiscal responsibility to his son.
I know people who would think you're an optimist.
Pray indeed.
“Then 9/11 hit and that caused more damage but that could have been managed but no, we have to spend more money. Then, we have to go fight a war in Iraq that turned out to cost a bunch of money that was never budgeted for and now we have to bail out sectors of the economy.” You prove my point—the beginning was 2000. The patient died and the Doctors have been applying CPR ever since. You can blame Bush, but he had a lot of company, particularly those that are trying to push us into socialism...Now the dangerous thing is that we have a new messiah, and he will grease us up for new lows.
Absolutely.
Good for you. A small LP grill plus a couple spare tanks would be good. I’m not able to buy one right now but I would if I could. I prefer wood but living in the suburbs the LP is less mess and less bulk. Won’t taste as good, IMHO, but I’d like to be able to cook if the power went out for a few days.
Huge government deficits, low interest rates and rapidly growing money supply all add to the likelihood of renewed inflation - and a rising gold price. How high? Very.
By Martin Hutchinson, breakingviews.com
Last Updated: 1:44PM GMT 02 Jan 2009
First, consider the risks of inflation. US money supply grew slowly for a while in early autumn, but in the two months to December 1 the St Louis Fed's measure of Money of Zero Maturity increased at an 11.7pc annual rate. That's a return to the trend that lasted from 1995 to 2008, when MZM grew 3.6 percentage points faster than nominal GDP.
The US is not alone. Around the world, governments have implemented large stimulus packages. If the corresponding borrowing is not to crowd out the private sector, it must be financed by money supply creation.
This monetary expansion is not supposed to be inflationary, since the governments promise to take any money away before it can push up prices.
[snip]
Am I the only one on here who believes that as things get worse, people, cities and states will start taking things into their own hands?
I agree and will go against conventional wisdom here.
The “problems” will go away as quickly and as mysteriously as they arose.
Good idea. Some extra of everything needed would be good. If only I had about $20K extra plus the room to store it all!
Perhaps we need to start of list of items and prioritize them. But I’ll bet the survivalist forums have already done this. I just stick to FR these days and maybe look at a silver/gold forum every few months.
Well, though I do support being prepared, I’m more referring to people forming their own communities, like what happens in EFAD: The Reconquista and in William Johnstone’s Ashes series.
I imagine that’ll be the inevitable next step. I’m just sorry I’m in Mexifornia and surrounded by libs. Some communities will fare better than others.
I’m fortunatly near Texas (I live in Arkansas), which I believe will be one of the states that rebels.
No, you’re not.
I also expect BATF to become out of control when it comes to firearms.
“Obama cannot begin to live up to the hype about his election. The people were sold on his fuzzy promises of change”
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Hold it right there, I say hold it right there, boy! Obama’s promises were not all that fuzzy, I watched his acceptance speech and he very clearly promised that he would defeat poverty, disease and climate change. Nothin’ fuzzy about that, no sir! So if we see a kid with sniffles, a family looking poor or a strange quirk in the weather, we should all start screaming about the, “failed policies” of the Obama administration. He should be able to deliver on his UNfuzzy promises.
Al Gore can find another line of work now, the messiah says ain’t gon’ be no mo’ climate change.
“This whole thing is like Alice in Wonderland.”
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I understand the thought, I have said the same myself a number of times but now I am thinking it is far worse. I can draw some lessons from Alice in Wonderland but I can not make heads or tails of the current situation, it really seems to be national madness. Alice in Wonderland is a sane man’s concept of a mad world, this is a mad world that no sane person could ever have imagined. If someone thirty years ago or even thirty months ago had prophesied exactly what is going on now he would have been met with howls of laughter. Nobody would have believed it possible.
Yet, in the face of all this we (myself included) make predictions of what will happen next. Are we all mad?
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