No comment.
Posted on 01/22/2009 12:32:51 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
We’re all (quite possibly) doomed
David Cox on the social consequences of recession
Wary of sparking panic, politicians are neglecting to acknowledge the true scale of the catastrophe that may await us, says David Cox
By David Cox
FIRST POSTED JANUARY 15, 2009
There is something oddly muted about current discussion of our economic difficulties. The Government fears we may have to wait until the second half of the year for an upturn. The Opposition warns that counter-recessionary measures may mean higher taxes in future. We should be so lucky.
Doubtless those in charge of our destiny are wary of sparking panic. Hence their reassurances that whatever we face, it won't be anything like the 1930s. On this, at least, they're right. Things could be far worse.
Today, a frozen credit market and impending deflationary spiral are combined with unprecedented global imbalances. The predicament this creates will not be dissolved by fiscal stimuli, debt guarantees and quantitative easing. Such measures may however make things worse.
The US cannot run a deficit big enough to keep its people in work. Attempting to do this will doubtless prompt increasingly impoverished but ever more indebted Americans to demand protectionism. This seems likely to prompt competitive devaluation and the disintegration of the global economic system.
In a worst-case scenario, strikes, riots and looting could all occur – forcing the Government to impose martial law
In such a world, Britain's debt will leave our country particularly disadvantaged, as sterling's slide is already indicating. UK bonds are likely to become unsaleable long before their American equivalents. If our public finances collapse, the IMF is unlikely to be in any position to rescue us.
The Government may find itself obliged to default on pensions and benefits, ravage public services and resort to hyperinflation to dissipate its liabilities. This could make the middle classes as disaffected as the workless.
Our society is no longer cohesive enough to accept whatever share-out of pain authority dictates. Strikes, riots and looting could all occur. Martial law may be required, as Britain loses, perhaps for ever, its standing as a serious world player.
It might never happen. However, any serious approach to our present difficulties must acknowledge that it might.
Ping!
Well, politicians may not be willing to acknowledge the situation,; but the media is always willing to blow everything completely out of proportion.
“These days it is prudent to assume that the reality is worse than what opinion leaders and experts say in public, because many of them are really slow catching up to the reality(they are still in denial,) and the rest know it but are afraid to spell it out for fear of sparking panic or wrath of public.”
The most troubling part, I think, is that some are looking forward to it with absolute glee.
a free for all.
they will look the other way with many crimes....somebody steals your bag of groceries?....so what...they're hungry...
we'll have to stay home, stay on guard, constantly, to protect our private property.....
First, move to a defensible location.
Decades of centralized monetary planning and stifling of free market capitalism are COMING HOME TO ROOOOOST!
It...Can't....Happen.....Here.
When most Americans-the opiated ones at least--get out of their mental, centrific bubble and objectively, even coldly start viewing their country as a foreign company from a distance, and realize that nothing is guaranteed in life (peace, harmony, being "Number 1"), my guess is they will get sober (and prepared) and realistic, but quick! Especially under this new fool-of-a-President and his moronic, motor-mouthed Vice President.
The irony is the great weapons buying spree is to protect onself against Obama and his excesses, and it might well end up being a Perfect Storm contributor to the real fireworks in the street when massive chunks of the population go without salaries, and the only ones truly safe will be in gated communities, the rest of us in flyover country will have to fend for ourselves. Man I hope I am waaaay off and wrong in this prediction, but something in my marrow tells me something big very conceivably could be likely to "go down" if things get much worse, telegenic, reassuring and uplifting President nothwithstanding.
My trouble is I don’t believe the govt. or the press, so I find myself between a rock and a hard place. My gut tells me things may get pretty bad.
The Islamists know this and are salivating, because their moment to strike the final blow to Britain (and probably the rest of the EU) is almost at hand.
I hope you are way off as well, but your marrow and my gut have the same feelings.
They failed.
Wall Street (and greedy people all across the fruited plain) tried it themselves.
They succeeded.
We are the laughing stock of the Middle East and in every stinking, dank den of inquity that harbors an al-Qaeda and his cache of weapons or germ cultures.
One already knows from history that ‘1930s Americans’ did the former (turn to each other).
Will you elaborate? That isn’t my understanding of what happened during the 1930s.
“telegenic, reassuring and uplifting President”
Let’s hope this “magic” keeps working. It was interesting that with around 2 million people at the Inauguration and Parade, there were no arrests for violence or misbehavior at all.
Not unlike a lot of places those days in America.
Don't take it from me.
Go talk to somebody in their 90s. Ask them if Americans or America has changed, and how they think this will go down if we are visited with the same or even worse.
Confidence is completely wiped out right now and deservedly so. This is way worse than what occured during the dot com bust. Millions of people have lost their jobs and retirement savings and this is just getting started.
Senators like Dodd and Frank should be in jail along with thier partners in crime like Angelo Mozilo and Franklin Raines. Instead, they keep all the money they fleeced and the rest of the country is left holding the bag. All branches of the government and regulatory agencies betrayed this country. Its going to take years to even slightly recover from this. By then, this country’s economy will be fashioned after French socialism thanks to Obama being handed the keys to the kingdom and a public too shellshocked to object.
You see it, too.
Forget unrest. The Great Depression was a (the?) major cause of WWII. News throughout the world is starting to remind me of the 20’s more and more every day, which is not a good sign.
“It was interesting that with around 2 million people at the Inauguration and Parade, there were no arrests for violence or misbehavior at all.”
That’s because the 2 million were mind-numbed BHO acolytes. Anybody with any sense stayed away.
Interesting thread ....the UK is on the precipice, if you believe their press. Last time I checked the pound sterling was WAAAAY off, down to about $1.37. I know people over there who have been out of work for a couple of years and subsist on a dole of about $75 (equivalent) every other week. And we elected a feel-good moron ....if the western civilized world goes down the toilet, we brought it on ourselves. Me, I’m expanding my garden this spring - my two main hobbies will become gardening and reloading ammo.
Dodd, Raines et. al. - I was thinking more along the lines of a Texas necktie party.
Regarding the dotcom bust. Not sure if I have all the crisis in order, but some “expert” was saying how the savings and loan bust was “fixed” by the dotcom boom. The dotcom bust was “fixed” by the housing boom. The housing bust (along with the banks, etc.) will be “fixed” by the dollar boom. But ..... that is the last call folks. After the dollar busts - there is no other “fix”.
I not only see it. I’m living it right now.
Well, I believe that they just nationalized their banking industry, so this could very well be the moment when they are sliding off the edge, grasping for that last chance to hold on.
just kidding...sort of
bttt
I don’t see how it fixes anything. It’s just one ponzi scheme after another with the only ones profiting are the ones who got in early and got out before the music stops.
I was predicting last year that the next bubble was going to be “green” technologies and industries. But given what occured in the past 6 months, I think you are correct. Dollar boom/bust will be the last act before full blown socialism occurs in the US. The end of all things that made this country the greatest on the planet will be no more. We will be average at best. The government will control everything. Exactly what the liberals want.
No comment.
He kept the trains running on time
Invest in precious metals, lead, brass, blue steel...
(Too bad our British friends don’t have this option.)
Right on the money.
Fortunately, flyover country can grow its own vegetables and somehow survive. It would be a good idea to familiarize yourself with some gardening principles and perhaps stock up on some non-spoilable grains - wheat, oats, etc.
The real problems are going to be in blue states and cities where the Obama People live. We know how they behave when things get tough.
Case in Point: Katrina.
How will they behave when food is handed out?
Black Friday.
LOL
Give us your wood and vegetables and we will let you live!
The biggest Ponzi Scheme the world has ever seen is about to unravel as the baby-boomers begin to retire.
Social Security
The biggest fraud perpetrated on the American people by the worst President in our nation's history. FDR.
” just what WILL that long line of hundreds of thousands of bored and increasinly desperate illegal aliens w/bambinos at home, standing out in front of so many Home Depots anyone of us can see on any day, do when the “s” really hits the economic fan? ) “
The sad truth is that these people will probably survive - and even thrive - in bad economic times....
The people I’m scared of is the four generations (or so) of Americans - of all economic strata (up-to-and-including Wall Street Bankers) - that we’ve raised, educated, and indoctrinated to be ‘Entitled Victims’, completely dependent on Gummint action for their well-being....
What happens when the teat is removed, and they find that they’ve got very few skills to fall back on??
Nobody in their right mind would/should pick any of these people up on a street corner and contract them for labor, and otherwise have them come into their homes to case the joint. In fact, (w/rising unemployment and more free time), "Dad" and "Junior" should be the ones out there mowing the lawns, blowing the leaves, painting the house IMHO (but that's another tangent).
Also, heard a report the other day, dig this: In America, SHOPLIFTING is now up 80% from a year ago.
Its coming folks.
Interesting. But I have to point out that the looting has already happened.
“My trouble is I don’t believe the govt. or the press, so I find myself between a rock and a hard place.”
I here ya Bro...!
The writing is on the wall, for those who can read.
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
-~~Ludwig Von Mises
Good point. Most of the illegals are capable of “living hard,” that is, sleeping outdoors, moving with little or no money, in short, surviving hard times.
Most American kids and even adults can’t even imagine life without central heat, a/c, cable TV, cell phones, ipods, ATMs, cars, microwaves and full refrigerators.
Many of them will literally have psychotic breakdowns or commit suicide if the plug is pulled on their 21st century lifestyle.
Yep — this ain’t your Grandfather’s Depression....
The difference between 1930 and 2009 is more psychic/spiritual than it is economic......
(Ravening hordes of yuppie computer nerds — now there’s a truly frightening mental image.... ;~))
At what point does debt become unrecoverable? ~300% of GDP still isn’t all that bad; many people get by just fine with that (house mortgage, car loan, moderate credit cards). At some point, of course, the debt simply becomes untenable - do economists roughly agree on what that point is?
“If I owe you a million dollars, I have a problem. If I owe you 100 million dollars, YOU have a problem.” - Donald Trump (attributed)
Now that's scary.
Goodbye freedom, forever, as the president assumes “emergency powers” with the encouragement of the media and the sheeple. Already, we're chucking out capitalism and the market economy, and the hard times are only in their infancy.
It’s hard to extend the “you have a problem” microcosm to govts, because even people and banks cannot print unlimited quantities of money. Only the Federal Reserve and the US Govt can do that in the USA, and they will, so they can stretch the debt pyramid much further than any billionaire ever could. Madoff is a case in point, as long as the bulls ran, he could continue his giant ponzi scheme.
The US Govt has many more tools to use, but in the end, they can only extend the unsafe structure further and further out over the edge of the cliff, so that when it collapses, it us much more calamitous. For example, when social security and federal pensions cannot be paid, or are paid in worthless “confederate” money that won’t by a loaf of bread, there will be blood in the streets, literally. Martial law will be seen as a better alternative to Mad Max.
This has happened every single time in history, going back at least to the Roman Empire. In that case, their “depression” was called The Dark Ages, and no individual lived to see it both begin and end.
” ~300% of GDP still isn’t all that bad; many people get by just fine with that (house mortgage, car loan, moderate credit cards). At some point, of course, the debt simply becomes untenable - do economists roughly agree on what that point is? “
I’m not an economist, but it would seem that the situation becomes untenable when one starts borrowing on the credit cards to make the mortgage and car payments.....
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