Skip to comments.Jim Rogers/Asian Financial Forum (World Commodities fundamenals enhanced)
Posted on 01/24/2009 7:38:14 PM PST by sickoflibs
If you go back in history whenever we have had periods of forced liquidation like we are having now, periods that only have happened nine or ten times every 100 or 150 years, people have had to sell everything without regards to the fundamentals. The way you make money historically in times like this is you find the fundamentals that are unimpaired and thats what you buy.
The fundamentals of General Motors are impaired. The fundamentals of City Bank are impaired by what is happening. The fundamentals of most industries of the world are very impaired. The only thing I know where the fundamentals are not impaired, but are enhanced, are commodities, coming out of this. Things are so bad that some farmers cant get loans for fertilizer. No one can a loan to get a new mine. Mines are closing, farmers are suffering. So the fundamentals of commodities are actually getting better because the supply is under terrible pressure when the world is going to continue to eat and everything else. The best place to be invested now is commodities, China, the Yen and commodities. Commodities have been in a bull market since 1998, 1999. The bull market was caused by supply and demand being terribly out of balance In the 80s and 90s there was very little money invested in productive capacity for any commodities; Think about all the great oil field in the world. They were discovered more than 40 years ago. The UK has been exporting oil for 26 years, within the decade the UK will be importing oil. The US is in serious trouble; the UK is in worse trouble. The UK has nothing to sell. Once the North Sea Oil dries up the UK will be in much, much worse shape.
The international energy agency has come out with a report showing that the worlds oil reserves are declining at a rate of 6.7 % per year even after discoveries. You can do the arithmetic, in 15 years there will not be any oil at any price unless something dramatic changes.
the facts are all the world oil reserves are in serious decline. This is true of all commodities you are going to see huge supply problems, the worlds inventories of food are the lowest they have been in 50 years. We have a shortage of fertilizer, we have a shortage of tractors, and we have a shortage of farmers
. Full video at Jim Rogers on the Asian Financial Forum pt 1/2 Jan 21 2009 and Jim Rogers on the Asian Financial Forum pt 2/2 Jan 21 2009
RE “The specific prediction about oil running out in 15 years is wrong.”
He is saying that it’s a great investment, that use will go up and supply will go down, even with increased exploration. We will never see a 1990s cheap energy climate again. So far I dont read any arguments to the contrary. I know that financials will not make a good investment. Will they?
Wasn't he saying the same when it was over $140? And he did say it would all be gone in 15 years. Do the math. LOL!
But you arent predicting anything yourself indictating you think he is right.
Are we here, maybe, on 'The Rule Of 72?' Jimmy may be correct...Compounding works backward as well as forward with numbers?
No, we're on the Jimmy can't multiply rule.
Jimmy may be correct...
Take 0.933 and raise it to the 15th power. Feel free to post your result.
You are so right! And that is why I wouldn't spit on the best part of him, or his creepy so called advice!!!
RE :”I’m predicting his claim of zero oil in 15 years is wrong. “
He actually said “.. in 15 years there is not going to be any oil at any price unless something dramatic happens” So your prediction matches his even though you are trying to play got-ya and not really claim anything about future prices(so no one can play got-ya with you.)
He refused to move to China because of the pollution. Still, China paid for most of GWB/Pelosi stimulus and bailout packages, and WOT. America loves their cheap products and their loans even though they build weapons to threaten us. I heard a theory that China can’t fight us because we owe them too much money. America is still up for another Chinese funded democrat give-away so called stimulus package, being in love with Obama. In fact I even read some of the bailout went to Chinese investors. I guess Rogers is following the money.
Back to investments. I just as assume survive and not have my life savings printed or taxed away , if possible.
One day we’ll have to have a contest to find out who loathes Jim Rodgers more. Plus his bow tie shtick is dated and lame. I hope he eats a bad fugu fish and keels over
Jim Rodgers has pledged allegiance to a foreign nation that is our rival. This would be China. He is making sure his little girl learns Mandarin. All this based on China being a nation of the future which loves to proclaim all the time.
Jim Rodgers should drop dead
For years he's been touting commodities and emerging nations such as China. Hopefully he got burned real bad
His bad math still makes me laugh.
So your prediction matches his even though you are trying to play got-ya
No. I said that even if his prediction comes true, reserves down 6.7% a year, there will not be zero oil. You realize that 0.933^15 is much much larger than zero?
YES!!! A prime example of Pragmatism which is nothing but expediency to the 15th degree!!!
He's on his own in an "every man for himself" world and will die alone and broke of a diseased mind!!!
A man without a country, so to speak...
>>The specific prediction about oil running out in 15 years is wrong.<<
For once, I agree with you.
RE :A man without a country, so to speak...
8 years ago I might understand you but today I sort of know how he feels. Especially when I see polls. I guess that’s why I only care if he is giving good advice.
Anyone who turns their back on this nation, regardless of one's bitterness over superficial polls, is exercising terrible judgement and is not fit to give Americans advice of any kind.
When you throw in the towell on America and actually vote with your resources in directions that dismiss your homeland, or even your adopted nation, then you should also surrender your citizenship with all it's protections, including the right to vote in a secret ballot election, IMHO!!!
Don't get me wrong. I agree with Ayn Rand and "The Virtues of Selfishness," but I deeply resent American citizens who stop acting (and investing) like one!!!
No oil available at any price means no oil. It's much worse than no oil for export.
There's nothing wrong with Roger's math.
LOL! You're funny.