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Exit polls: Livni's Kadima winner in 2009 elections
haaretz.com ^ | Feb. 10, 2009 | Haaretz Staff

Posted on 02/10/2009 12:20:41 PM PST by Free ThinkerNY

Exit polls by Israel's three main television stations on Tuesday night showed Kadima as the clear winner in the 2009 general elections, with Likud coming a narrow second.

Channel 1, Channel 2 and Channel 10 polling of voters as they left the ballot box all showed victory for Kadima, headed by Tzipi Livni.

(Excerpt) Read more at haaretz.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bibi; israel; kadima; likud; livni

1 posted on 02/10/2009 12:20:41 PM PST by Free ThinkerNY
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To: Free ThinkerNY

and exit polls are always reliable /sarc


2 posted on 02/10/2009 12:21:47 PM PST by GeronL (please stand by...)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Exit polls also had kerry as the next President


3 posted on 02/10/2009 12:22:10 PM PST by italianquaker
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To: Free ThinkerNY

My guess is that she will prevail. She will be welcomed with open arms by Hillary and Bambi. Together they will sell out the nation Israel.


4 posted on 02/10/2009 12:23:23 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t follow this election closely, but thought Bibi would win it handily.


5 posted on 02/10/2009 12:23:30 PM PST by Badeye (There are no 'great moments' in Moderate Political History. Only losses.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Kadima CLEAR winner, but Likud CLOSE second? That doesn’t make sense. I hope the Israelis haven’t turned to suicide by voting like most Jewish Americans.


6 posted on 02/10/2009 12:23:57 PM PST by SolidWood ("NO on the stimulus package" Governor Palin said.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Let’s wait and see. I hope this is not true, but it could be.


7 posted on 02/10/2009 12:25:32 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: SolidWood

Likud may end up forming the government if it is only narrowly behind Kadima and Labor Party crashed.


8 posted on 02/10/2009 12:26:23 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Kadima might have won, but Likud will form the next Israeli government.


9 posted on 02/10/2009 12:27:20 PM PST by AdvisorB (Obamatude could be defined by Blago as something tangible, but not quite as tangible as JJJ's offer.)
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To: SolidWood

You mean, like most Americans?

It looks like Likud may come in second, but the right wing and religious parties will hold the majority. Livni may have the first try at setting up a government, but if the right and religious parties hold steadfast she will fail and Netanyahu will be able to form a majority government.

Not a bad result. Netanyahu lost a lot of support from the right when he tried to delegitimize Moshe Feiglin as a Likud member, moving his place on the ballot from approximately 20th to approximately 37th.


10 posted on 02/10/2009 12:27:52 PM PST by Piranha
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To: SolidWood

“voting like most Jewish Americans”

Most vote “D”.

The Republican Jewish political action committee actually meets every other Thursday in the phone booth in Times Square.


11 posted on 02/10/2009 12:27:56 PM PST by edcoil (Hey, I found my round-tuit, guess I'll go to work now.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Shouldn’t that read that Kadima is LEADING the election?


12 posted on 02/10/2009 12:28:12 PM PST by FTJM
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To: SolidWood
Kadima needs 66 votes for majority.Let's wait and see:-))
13 posted on 02/10/2009 12:28:17 PM PST by QQQQ
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I hope this isn’t true...if it is then Israel is signing it’s own death warrant.


14 posted on 02/10/2009 12:28:51 PM PST by pgkdan
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To: Free ThinkerNY

Bye Bye Israel!!! The guess here it will cease to exist in 25 years.


15 posted on 02/10/2009 12:31:49 PM PST by kenmcg (cOMMBYAH)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

The chart here makes things a little more clear. Left leaning parties did not do so well overall. If Livni is to form a ruling coalition she may choose a “unity” approach and that will mean bringing Bibi or Lieberman into the Govt. Also, remember that these are still exit poll results and things may change.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_gnm2C1B8vbI/SZHijkj4r1I/AAAAAAAADO4/Dr4JdOGU01w/s400/log_exit_polls_2.JPG


16 posted on 02/10/2009 12:37:17 PM PST by Uriah_lost (Is there no balm in Gilead?....)
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Channel 1 sees 30 seats for Kadima, but the right-wing block has an advantage over the center-left.
Globes correspondent10 Feb 09 22:06

Voting in Israel's close-fought general election ended at 10pm this evening. Among the major parties, the Channel 1 exit poll gives 30 of the Knesset's 120 seats to Kadima, led by Tzipi Livni, 28 seats to Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, 14 to Israel Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, 13 to Labor, led by Ehud Barak, and 9 to Shas, led by Eli Yishai.

The Ynet-Smith poll gives 28 to Kadima, 26 to Likud, 16 to Israel Beiteinu, 14 to Labor, and 10 to Shas.

The exit poll results are something of an upset, since in pre-election polls Likud led all the way, albeit with a steadily reducing lead.

Although it looks as though Kadima will be the largest single party, as things stand it is nevertheless expected that it will be Benjamin Netanyahu who will be asked to try to form a government, since the right-wing block has a clear lead over the center-left block to which Kadima belongs. The result could however lead to a constitutional crisis, since as the largest party Kadima will claim that Tzipi Livni has the right to form a government.

The projected result is a catastrophe for Labor, the worst in the party's history. Israel Beiteinu too has gained far fewer seats than the pre-election polls indicated that it would.

--------

Livni may not be able to form gov't due to large right-wing bloc

By JPOST.COM STAFF
With voting stations officially closed, exit polls at 10 p.m. suggested that Kadima would win the general elections on Tuesday.

However, due to the dramatic rise in support of the Likud and Israel Beiteinu, it seemed that Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu would have a better chance than Kadima head Tzipi Livni of forming the next coalition.

The Channel 1 poll showed Kadima winning 30 mandates, and Likud trailing closely behind with 28 seat. Israel Beiteinu was predicted to earn 14 mandates, and Labor was slated to get 13 seats.

The Channel 2 poll narrowed the gap between first and second place, showing Kadima with 29 mandates, and Likud with 27 seats. Israel Beiteinu was predicted to earn 15 mandates, and 13 seats.

Channel 10 followed the same pattern, predicting Kadima with 30 mandates, Kadima with 28 seats, Israel Beiteinu with 15 mandates, and Labor with 13 seats.

Once the final results of the election are known, President Shimon Peres will begin a round of consultations with party leaders, to hear who they are recommending for prime minister. In the past, the task of forming a coalition has been given to the head of the largest party. But election legislation gives Peres wide leeway, and he can grant the first opportunity to the party leader who he judges has the best chance in forming a government, even if that party did not earn the most mandates in the election.

17 posted on 02/10/2009 12:43:09 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: kenmcg

G-d says differently.

But America on the other hand...


18 posted on 02/10/2009 12:43:13 PM PST by Jeb21 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaE98w1KZ-c)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you'd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

19 posted on 02/10/2009 12:43:44 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: QQQQ
Kadima needs 66 votes for majority.Let's wait and see:-))

61 of 120 seats.

20 posted on 02/10/2009 12:46:59 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: Jeb21

Let my People Go!

21 posted on 02/10/2009 12:50:30 PM PST by Texas Fossil
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To: Badeye; anniegetyourgun; SolidWood

Israel is a coalition government. I have read that it is likely that Kadima will not be able to form a coalition and Bibi will likely be asked to form one from Likud and one of the far-right parties.

All is not lost unless Likud gets a clear majority of seats in the Kenesset....which is 66 I think.

I want to watch Obama/Mitchell/Clinton try to mussle around Benjamin Netanyahu.

If skillfully handled, the Republicans could turn this into a fight between Obama and Clinton as to what happens visa-vie
US foreign policy toward Israel.


22 posted on 02/10/2009 12:51:12 PM PST by HardStarboard ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule - Mencken knew Obama)
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To: anniegetyourgun

to be fair, American Jews sold out Israel first...


23 posted on 02/10/2009 12:53:11 PM PST by steel_resolve (We are living in the post-rational world where being a moron is an asset)
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To: SolidWood

Nothing odd about it. Netanyahu is much more popular in USA and FReepdom than he is in Israel. He’s very Clinton-like and just not trusted. Bibi may end up with a winning coalition, however, as Livni and Labour might have to rely on Arab parties non-opposition to them and on Jewish “religious” parties extracting a very high price.


24 posted on 02/10/2009 12:56:39 PM PST by hlmencken3 (Originalist on the the 'general welfare' clause? No? NOT an originalist!)
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Smaller party and coalition results.

According to Channel 1, the right-wing bloc won 63 Knesset seats and the left wing 57; Channel 2 predicted 64 for the right and 56 for the left; and Channel 10, like Channel 1, predicted 63 and 57.

The three exit polls, on average, found Shas to be the fifth largest party with 9-10 seats, followed by United Torah Judaism with 5, Meretz 4-5, Chadash 4, Jewish Home 3-4, National Union 3, Balad 2-3 and Ra'am Ta'al with 2-4 mandates.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1233304741384&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

25 posted on 02/10/2009 1:07:35 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: HardStarboard

Wheil things are bad here economically, what Israel is facing is simply staggering as it relates to survival.

The Obama Administration is no friend of Tel Aviv, no matter which party is in power there.


26 posted on 02/10/2009 1:13:37 PM PST by Badeye (There are no 'great moments' in Moderate Political History. Only losses.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

27 posted on 02/10/2009 1:16:47 PM PST by Bobalu (McCain has been proven to be the rino flop I always thought he was.)
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To: Badeye

I thought Israeli Prime Ministers were directly elected.


28 posted on 02/10/2009 1:20:31 PM PST by Perdogg (Only the hypnotized never lie)
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To: SJackson

Couldn’t Likud form a coalition with Yisraeli and Labor?


29 posted on 02/10/2009 1:23:07 PM PST by Perdogg (Only the hypnotized never lie)
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To: Perdogg

So did I.


30 posted on 02/10/2009 1:27:36 PM PST by Badeye (There are no 'great moments' in Moderate Political History. Only losses.)
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To: Perdogg
Couldn’t Likud form a coalition with Yisraeli and Labor?

It's a parliamentary system, the Prime Minister isn't directly elected, rather the head of the political party able to form a coalition, usually the party winning the largest number of seats. Labor is to the left of Kadima, unlikely to get along with Likud, but any sort of a coalition could be put together. Yisrael Beiteinu (16), Shas (9-10), United Torah (5), National Union (3), Jewish Home (3-4) would be the logical right wing candidates, which gets Likud to 62-64. To put together a government Livni would need to sweep all other parties, including the Arab parties, and get one or two of the right wing parties to break ranks. Always possible, they negotiate these things by offering cabinet posts and government benefits.

31 posted on 02/10/2009 1:40:45 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: Badeye; Perdogg

The President (Peres) is directly elected, and will be the one to decide who gets the first shot at forming a government, Livni or Bibi. The heads of each of the parties are elected in a separate election, a few months ago. In todays election, voters vote for a party, though obviously the campaign revolves about individuals.


32 posted on 02/10/2009 1:44:16 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: SJackson

Thanks SJ, didn’t know how it worked.


33 posted on 02/10/2009 1:48:15 PM PST by Badeye (There are no 'great moments' in Moderate Political History. Only losses.)
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A scorecard for anyone who needs one, more info at Israel Votes 2009

 Political Parties & Platforms for 2009

Use this cool Electoral Compass to see who you should pick for Prime Minister given your stance on the issues.

Download the Party Platforms | View Current Political Posters (with Translation)

 

Left

Left of Center

Centrist

Right of Center

Right

Major Parties

 

Labor

Kadima

Likud

 

Small Parties
(Running for
Re-election)

·  Meretz

·  National Democratic (Balad)

·  Hadash

·  United Arab List

·  Gil

·  Shas

·  Torah & Shabat
Judaism

·  The Jewish Home

·  Yisrael Beitenu

·  National Union

New Parties


(Currently not
in the Knesset).

The small parties are listed in alphabetical order according to their Hebrew name and the translation appears in parentheses.

  • Acharayut (Responsibility)
  • Aleh Yarok (Green Leaf)
  • Brit Olam Lemaan Yeladeinu (Lasting Promise to Our Children)
  • Da'am (Workers Party)
  • HaTnuah HaYeroka/Meimad (The Green Movement/Meimad)
  • HaYerokim (The Greens)
  • HaYisraelim (The Israelis)
  • Koach HaKesef (The Power of Money)
  • Koach Lehaspiah (Power to Influence)
  • Lazuz
  • Leader
  • Lev (Heart)
  • Lochamei Hevrah Meuchadim (United Fighters for Society)
  • Mahapach BeHinuch (Revolution in Education)
  • Nitzoley Shoah Im Bogrey Aleh Yarok (Holocaust Survivors w/Green Leaf Alumni)
  • Or (Light)
  • Ra'ash (Men's Rights Party)
  • Tzomet-HaTnuah LeZionut Mithadeshet (Junction - Movement for Renewed Zionism)
  • Yisrael Hamithadeshet (Renewed Israel)
  • Yisrael Hazaka (Strong Israel)
  • Zabar (Youth of Israel)

 

The 17th Knesset [current government]- Seats Per Party

Political Party

# Knesset Seats

Kadima

29

Labor-Meimad

19

Likud

12

Shas

12

Yisrael Beitenu

11

Ichud Leumi - Mafdal

9

Gil Pensioners Party

7

Torah and Shabbat Judaism

6

Meretz

5

United Arab List - Arab Renewal

4

Hadash

3

National Democratic Assembly

3

Total

120

 


34 posted on 02/10/2009 1:52:10 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

FoxNews is reporting that Livni’s party Kadima, eked out a very slim victory against, Likud, Netanyahu’s party.

With other right-wing parties making very strong showings, and Labor, with Barak, going down the toilet, it is likely that it will be Bibi who will form the new government.

IMO, the right wing parties will not coalesce around Livni. She is no Golda Meir, and a leftist, feminist lesbian to boot.


35 posted on 02/10/2009 2:08:24 PM PST by Cincinna (TIME TO REBUILD * JINDAL* PALIN * CANTOR 2012)
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To: AdvisorB

Hope you are right. Israel has a Parliamentary system, and the winner will have to bring along a coalition to reach 61 votes.

This will likely be Netanyahu. The right wing block has increased in size tom 62-64.

Michael Medved is reporting that Israeli president Shimon Peres, will likely ask Netanyahu to form the next government.


36 posted on 02/10/2009 2:12:14 PM PST by Cincinna (TIME TO REBUILD * JINDAL* PALIN * CANTOR 2012)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

We see Israeli Jews share the desire with American Jews, The PLO, HAMAS and Hezbollah to see the end of Israel.


37 posted on 02/10/2009 2:25:07 PM PST by NoLibZone ( Obama looks dark because he is 100% full of shit. He's 6% Black.50% White the rest Arab.)
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To: edcoil; ExTexasRedhead; MeanWestTexan; Shellybenoit; ncfool; montag813; goldstategop; LucyT; ...
The Republican Jewish political action committee actually meets every other Thursday in the phone booth in Times Square.

I hate to tell you this, but that's a bad joke. There is actually a strong, influential national Jewish Republican organization named the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC), with steadily increasing membership, a national office in DC within a short walk from the Capitol, four regional offices and local chapters in about 50 cities/metro areas around the country. The web site is rjchq.org .

Several FReepers are members and all Jewish Republicans are invited to join and participate.

38 posted on 02/10/2009 2:58:08 PM PST by justiceseeker93
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To: Cincinna; SJackson

Livni a lesbian? Never heard of that before. She’s not all that attractive, but she doesn’t look like one offhand. I would think that her opponents might have figured that out by now if such were the case.


39 posted on 02/10/2009 3:03:37 PM PST by justiceseeker93
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To: Cincinna; SJackson
FoxNews is reporting that Livni's party Kadima, eked out a slim victory against Likud, Netanyahu's party.

How the heck would they know? I'm sure, since the race is close, the exit poll results are within the margin of error. Plus, as I understand it, the voting is done with paper ballots. It will undoubtedly take more than a few hours to count up 5 million or so paper ballots.

40 posted on 02/10/2009 3:08:33 PM PST by justiceseeker93
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To: justiceseeker93

google it.


41 posted on 02/10/2009 3:16:23 PM PST by Cincinna (TIME TO REBUILD * JINDAL* PALIN * CANTOR 2012)
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To: justiceseeker93
I like this report better!

Netanyahu declares victory in Israeli election

ML/NJ

42 posted on 02/10/2009 3:47:55 PM PST by ml/nj
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To: justiceseeker93

I was listening to a “republican jew on the radio call in and he was in the organization and used the term phone booth.

Might be a bad joke but I know many jews and not a single one is conservative.


43 posted on 02/10/2009 3:54:49 PM PST by edcoil (Hey, I found my round-tuit, guess I'll go to work now.)
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To: justiceseeker93

They don’t know. Exit polls are inaccurate, and military votes aren’t counted, and tend right. I’ve never heard the lesbian thing either. I think Bibi won this one.


44 posted on 02/10/2009 3:59:27 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: justiceseeker93

Not to mention Freedoms Watch, a multi-religious group formed at the RJC winter meeting a couple years ago. Along with Rudy Giuliani, the only ones who ran a ad slamming the Paetreus-Betrayus slander.


45 posted on 02/10/2009 4:01:16 PM PST by SJackson (most merciful thing that a large family does to one of its infant members is to kill it, M Sanger)
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To: Cincinna

I hope that Medved is right. I would think that the right-wing Lieberman Yisreal Beiteninu Party (14-15 seats) would want to partner with Likud and the religious parties. I just can’t see them forming a coalition with Kadima and Labor.


46 posted on 02/10/2009 4:09:28 PM PST by AdvisorB (Obamatude could be defined by Blago as something tangible, but not quite as tangible as JJJ's offer.)
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To: edcoil
...I know many [J]ews and not a single one is conservative.

Really? There are somewhere between 50 and 100 conservative (politically) Jews here on FR that I'm aware of, so there have to be even more than that on FR alone. You probably have met some of them here and didn't know they were Jewish.

BTW, the RJC has attracted some very big Republican names to its events over the years, including Pres. G. W. Bush, who spoke at RJC events several times during his term. The RJC has also hosted a GOP presidential candidates forum during the last presidential primary season.

47 posted on 02/10/2009 9:09:59 PM PST by justiceseeker93
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