U.S. stock futures tumble on Citi deal, GDP data

Market Watch ^ | February 27, 2009 | Steve Goldstein

[Wyatt's Torch]

My guesstimate at the timeline:

We stay in a trading range of roughly 7,000 to 7,500 through April earnings season. Earnings will be far worse than expected. That will kick us into a trading range of between 6,250 and 6,750 through July. The July earnings season will also be abysmal and worse than expected and that will ignite the bottom of around 5,500 to 5,750. Things won’t get better until around Q2 of 2010...

Hope I am wrong.

[brownsfan]

“Maybe even today...waiting for the opening bell.”

I guessed this would happen in a thread a week ago.
I just wish I was smart enough to take advantage of my correct guess.

[Osage Orange]

6500 is a good target...........

[9YearLurker]

I actually hope you’re right: if we’re on the upswing 5 quarters from now, I’ll be happy with that. We were due and primed for a painful recession anyway.

[brownsfan]

“The bottom will have a “5” leading number...”

I was hoping it wouldn’t go that low. My guess was 6500, but with the “stealth” nationalization of Citi, and the strong push for cap and trade, bad things are going to happen to the market.

[spectre]

Wonder what would happen to CITI if ALL us stupid remaining shareholders sold their now almost worthless stocks today?

Where would they get the money to pay us all off?

[John W]

Well, you’d probably end up paying yourself with tax dollars.

[Grammy]

My broker said he lost clients several years ago because he was so negative. They are calling him now. He talks with people who think it could hit 3.

[Bon mots]

Wall Street just loves Marxists!
They're a real scream!

[Wyatt's Torch]

I think “3” would be massively oversold. That would be a 71.6% decline from the high of 14,066 (assuming it hit 3,999). Not sure anything justifies that.

That being said, the Crash from 1929 high of 343 to the 1932 low of 43 was an 87% decline...using that as a guide, the bottom would be 1,828.....

Gulp...

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Yep. Dropping like a rock...

http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/aspx/majorindices.aspx

(Link may be slow...lots of hits this morning, I’m sure.)

[John W]

The PP Team might have to put in a full days work today.

[Oatka]

Below this, nothing but air.

Same with the DJI. Check out this long-term chart. I keep trying to find solid levels of support but see nothing until 1000 (1965-82), as outrageous as that seems - for now anyway.

[St. Louis Conservative]

I wonder how all these hedge fund managers, investment bankers, CEOs, and Wall Street traders that overwhelmingly supported Obama feel now?

The market is in the tank and now Zero wants a trillion dollar income AND a carbon tax to boot.

[taildragger]

See my post 13....

Watch the Video.....

[perfect_rovian_storm]

That guys a big ‘expert’ and I’m just a keyboard jockey, but I saw him on Beck’s TV show, as well as hearing him on the radio yesterday.

What he’s saying makes a lot of sense except for one thing:

He’s behaving as though the markets are happening in a vacuum and I disagree with that. He’s not taking massive government overreaching into account. IMHO, in doing that, he’s glossing over the fact that as soon as we’re done with this deflationary period, we’re going to jump right into a period of massive and crippling inflation due to the incredible amount of money printing that the fed has been doing. (Check this out... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNS8IY_Td14 )

Therefore, IMHO, his recommendations make a lot of sense for the short term, and he’s absolutely right, prices are too high (housing prices are still inflated...here’s another eye opener from Beck: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca_aOvZPh-g ), but I’m leery of following his advice for long term strategies.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Can’t see You tube behind the firewall. Anything else other than Dow 3,000?

[Broker]

everybody is wrong and a clueless US Govt. Oligarchy could care. Folks, they are fanning the fires.

[Wyatt's Torch]

The printing of money is not, in and of itself, inflationary. It becomes inflationary only if the supply outstrips the demand which is currently very high. You are assuming the fed maintains the money supply at its current levels. The current levels are sufficient for the levels of demand currently seen.

Here is M1, or the "money supply":

And here is the "demand" for money of "velocity". You can see that the two are fairly well timed.

I think they only one doing anything right is Bernanke and the fed. They are doing what was not done in the 1930's. that being said, Bernanke has to get the timing right. If he leaves the faucet on too long while velocity is declineing, it will then be inflationary.

[Broker]

Money market is a bubble, no? expect renewed and heavy soveriegn borrowing. Once Treasury bill/note/bond issues start to flood the market; rates will ratchet up. Inflation, no?