Skip to comments.S&P 500's close eyed as index near November lows
Posted on 02/27/2009 1:15:06 PM PST by 6SJ7
Dow Jones Industrial Average headed to worst February point drop in history
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- As stocks on Friday meandered to another month of losses, investors were especially focused on the S&P 500 Index and whether the broad market gauge would close above or below its November lows, with a finish above 740 to 750 seen as a victory of sorts.
"Only on a two-day close below 740 will I run for the hills. A close over 740 today would be considered a successful test of the November 2008 low," said Elliot Spar, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus.
The S&P closed at 752.44 on Nov. 20, though the benchmark on Monday undercut that prior bear-market low.
"Hopefully we can get back to 800 on the S&P, but first we have to get past resistance at 752. If we can close above that one resistance level I think it would be a mild positive," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners LLC.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
A pattern is developing.
We closed at 735.09.
These guys who have been holding out hope, continually changing their parameters for a violation of the November lows — they have no more excuses. If we don’t go up BIG on Monday, you’re going to see some serious selling action as people lay on the mother of all shorts from here on out.
I went to google to check the DJIA and this ad was beside the final numbers
“Bear Market got you down?
Invest in your customers! Send them
elegant Greeting Cards as thanks.”
I hope he’s slipping on the Nikes ‘cause it closed today at 735.09.
Spar better start pulling his “Iron Maiden “ routine and “ Run To The Hills”
after bell s&p was at 737.
DJIA down 26.6% since 0bama was elected.
He hasn't had the time to prove that yet.
He won't surpass Jimma' Carter until at least next month....
“Meandering” is a pretty funny and understated way of putting the free-fall the good old United Socialist States of America is now undergoing.
Wasn't that conveyed strongly enough by "the one" that it's "Bush's" fault?
I always get a kick out of technical traders and all their arcane plots and graphs. And any serious trader should pay attention to those charts and graphs, so as to be able to take advantage of the technical trader who might take a predictive action of buying soon after a double mountain that transcends the projected uptick of the 300 day moving average...
Worst President (usurper)
Ya know, Perdogg, I’m starting to believe the “run for the hills” talk on the market & economy. I keep hearing that the GE mess (dividend cut but will still lose their AAA rating)is going to just be the first of many major companies. It’s going to get worse...how much worse is the question.
Thank God I'm in the S&P then. /sarc
My “moving average is about twice a day; the market is in the crapper.
I simply don't see how individuals will return to mutual funds over the next several years.
Once home values stabilize, the next shoe will drop...commercial real estate. There's a lot of vacant office buildings and mall space out there, and the debt service has to be paid.
The indications are that commercial is going to drop in the next several months....houses aren’t going to stabilize ‘til late 2010, if then.
I always get a kick out of technical traders and all their arcane plots and graphs.
Technical indicators are worthless if the world changes under your feet as we have seen ,, without this march to Socialism and the degradation of our currency technical indicators are very useful in determining buying pressures on even a simple price chart with volume.
This isn’t an arcane plot or graph. This isn’t some rohrschach test by looking at a picture or graph.
This is the market selling off to a level below the “panic low” of November, when every day we woke up, there was some new Big Event that broke a lot of assumptions about how the world of finance would move forward. Those lows in November were set with some very, very high volume, which marks them as important bottoms - the turning point in an index or in a stock usually happens when the selling becomes frenzied and panic’ed. And that certainly was the case on 11/20 and 11/21.
Today, we had elevated volume, 2:1 on the downside, but not a panic. The volume on the SPY’s was double average on 11/20. Today it was barely above the 20-day average.
This was calm, deliberate selling into the close - this indicates that people are calmly making an assessment of the future of the market, and the future is lower from here.
There have been far too many optimists claiming that the low was set in November - some of them here on FR - who are still not taking into account that this is no mere recession. It is a debt deflation. We haven’t had a debt deflation since the 1930’s, and before that, since 1873. Debt deflations do not act like recessions, and all this happy-talk about how we’re going to turn this around so by the end of 2009 is increasingly unrealistic when we examine the history of debt deflations as our guide, and the possibility becomes even more remote as the business sector sees the Obama administration’s plans for business. Obama is repeating some of the same mistakes that FDR made.
The optimists have only Monday to convince anyone that this is a “failed penetration” of the November low - ie, Monday would have to be a pretty big up day, needing to push the SP500 above 742 or so into the close. If we were really going to be convinced that the November lows were going to hold, we’d need to see it pop back over 752.44 really quickly, and on heavy volume.
Otherwise, the optimists will lose their optimism and conviction and they’re going to start selling, and those on the short side are going to press their shorts and down we’re going to go, hard and fast.