Global Warming: On Hold? (Ooops)

The Discovery Channel ("Global Warming's" premier television cheerleader) ^ | March 2, 2009 | Michael Reilly

[presidio9]

For those who have endured this winter's frigid temperatures and today's heavy snowstorm in the Northeast, the concept of global warming may seem, well, almost wishful.

But climate is known to be variable -- a cold winter, or a few strung together doesn't mean the planet is cooling. Still, according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.

Earth's climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.

"This is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950," Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. "Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn't have one."

Instead, Swanson and colleague Anastasios Tsonis think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate. In 1997 and 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed rapidly in what Swanson called a "super El Nino event." It sent a shock wave through the oceans and atmosphere, jarring their circulation patterns into unison.

How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record? When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.

The discrepancy gets to the heart of one of the toughest problems in climate science -- identifying the difference between natural variability (like the occasional March snowstorm) from human-induced change.

But just what's causing the cooling is a mystery. Sinking water currents in the north Atlantic Ocean could be sucking heat down into the depths. Or an overabundance of tropical clouds may be reflecting more of the sun's energy than usual back out into space.

"It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970s was due to a free variation in climate," Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey wrote in an email to Discovery News. "Suggesting that the warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again."

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it's just a hiccup, and that humans' penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.

"When the climate kicks back out of this state, we'll have explosive warming," Swanson said. "Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive."

[xcamel]

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---

Amusement ping.

[dirtboy]

But just what's causing the cooling is a mystery.

Gee, you think this bad boy might have something to do with it?

[jiggyboy]

global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades

I see. It's still global warming. It's just hiding. For decades.

[wolfcreek]

So we don’t need no stinkin Cap and trade crap. Right?

[boomop1]

The kool aide drinkers haven't expired yet.

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[NorCoGOP]

climate is known to be variable -- a cold winter, or a few strung together doesn't mean the planet is cooling

Unless you drink the Algore koolaid...two warm days in a row = global warming! Catastrophe! Dogs and cats living together! Total chaos!

Two cold winters in a row = aberration.

[ari-freedom]

a theory that predicts both “A” and “not A” is not a theory. It is an unfalsifiable conjecture.

[jimmyray]

So we don’t need no stinkin Cap and trade crap. Right?

If they were not such great opportunities for confiscatory tax policies...

[AntiKev]

Earth's climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.

That's because most people...including this "journalist" have confused weather for climate.

[kingu]

Earth's climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.

Nope, scientists understand quite clearly what bogus data is, and looking for the most likely culprit. It's that wacked out liberal arts major bunch who style themselves as climatologists who are starting to figure out that the nearly 100 billion we've tossed at them over the last 7 years has resulted in absolutely no verifiable model of the most basic environment.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive."

Wow... these guys are amazing! THIRTY YEARS of cooling... all the while, still believing that CO2 is the culprit behind potential warming. Is THAT what they expect us to believe??

[torchthemummy]

But climate is known to be variable -- a (warm summer), or a few strung together doesn't mean the planet is (warming). Fixed it.

[benjibrowder]

For Global Warming alarmists, that had to hurt.

[freedumb2003]

It is an unfalsifiable conjecture.

Do I finally have a good definition of a "tautology?" For some reason, that one always eludes me.

[Ditter]

OMG! The climate warms and cools all by its self! Who knew?

[electricallady]

If people would read the farmers almanac they would have read that every 30 years there is a climate change. We are now entering a cooling stage according to this years Almanac.

[torchthemummy]

Wow... these guys are amazing! THIRTY YEARS of cooling... all the while, still believing that CO2 is the culprit behind potential warming. Is THAT what they expect us to believe??

Exactly. If CO2 has been and is going to be released in higher quantitities (even with "reductions") and yet there is actual cooling for three decades then the only rationale to claim that the "build-up of greenhouse gasses" will continue and then "Bang!" major warming was delayed is due to the fact that the Sun and, to a lesser degree, other cylindrical factors are at play. It's truly insulting.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

They're abandoning the term Global Warming. It's now called Climate Change so all bases are covered. If you ever encounter one of these “people” in the future ask them when doesn't the climate change? The results will either be hilarious or violent actions on the part of the zealot.

[ari-freedom]

“A tautology is a tautology”...is a tautology. :)
4 = 4 is a tautology and so is 2 + 2 = 4.
Sometimes they are trivial and sometimes it takes a little work to realize that the 2 expressions are indeed the same, the definition of a tautology.

[dila813]

stupid sun nut, you “sun is the center of the solar system freaks” are so nuts.

Everyone knows the earth warms due to the exhalation of politicians.

[Magic Fingers]

“Wow... these guys are amazing! THIRTY YEARS of cooling... all the while, still believing that CO2 is the culprit behind potential warming.”

They have faith in the Great Pumpkin’s return.

[theymakemesick]

Or an overabundance of tropical clouds may be reflecting more of the sun's energy than usual back out into space

The sun only gets one mention in the entire article, nust not have been written by an objective writer or scientist. Imagine that.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Still, according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.

Apparently global warming is far more tricky than previously believed. It's capable of hiding for decades to escape suspicion. Never fear, the intrepid environmentalists who are sworn to defeat global warming will never relent, not even if global warming tries to hide behind the next Ice Age.

[reformedliberal]

“Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive.”

---

Where does the radiative forcing hide out during the 30 years of cooling? I want to go there, now.

This is like saying that if I put hot food directly into the freezer, once it has totally frozen, it’s former heat is still lurking somewhere. I hope it isn’t adjacent to the ice cream.

[CedarDave]

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it's just a hiccup, and that humans' penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.

"When the climate kicks back out of this state, we'll have explosive warming," Swanson said. "Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive."

It's obvious that no matter the evidence that CO2 is not the culprit, they will not back off their man-caused global warming mantra. Like all politically driven scientists, they won't let new facts change their environmentally driven and biased conclusions.

[runfree]

“global temperatures have flatlined since 2001”

Flatlined? Try DECLINED.

[torchthemummy]

4 = 4 is a tautology and so is 2 + 2 = 4.

I know this is on a tangent but I've always like the simple fact that just because B followed A does not necessarily mean that A caused B. In modern liberal politics it is an oft used, convenient assumption/claim that proves false when examined in detail.

[SomeCallMeTim]

My wife will be pleased if it’s next to the Pralines & Cream.... then, it’ll be easier for her to pick out all the pecans and candy!

These guys are grasping at straws... because, they can see that the WORLD is not believing them anymore.

[colorado tanker]

Obviously, you aren't a scientist. A sophisticated, nuanced understanding of complex computer models reveals beyond doubt that climate has nothing to do with the source of almost all energy in the Solar System, no our climate is driven by a secondary greenhouse gas of which humans generate a very small amount. Care for some Kool-Aid, it makes all clear?

[torchthemummy]

Instead, Swanson and colleague Anastasios Tsonis think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate.

"Conspiring" to screw up our socialist political agenda is more like it.

[Allegra]

"I'm a scientist. I do science."

[humblegunner]

Hold on, Betty. Do you mean this has to do with.. science?

[expatpat]

"When the climate kicks back out of this state, we'll have explosive warming," Swanson said.

Sure, Swanson, sure. Why should we believe your wild-assed guesses? You don't have the slightest idea what the temperature is going to be next Sunday, never mind about 30 years from now.

[Gene Eric]

>> "identifying the difference between natural variability (like the occasional March snowstorm) from human-induced change."

>> "and that humans' penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us."

Michael Reilly, you're a funny spewin' human kinda' guy. Next time you decide to insult the species to which you belong, back it up with hard data and not your feelings.

[Gene Eric]

>> Michael Reilly, you’re a funny spewin’ human kinda’ guy.

Sorry Michael Reilly, it was Kyle Swanson who was to be pasted from the clipboard.

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

I notice that the Discovery Channel REFUSED (then) and REFUSES (even now) to even talk to a person not entirely committed to the global warming religion (er, hypocrazy.)

[torchthemummy]

You don't have the slightest idea what the temperature is going to be next Sunday, never mind about 30 years from now.

Yup. When a politician (including many scientists nowadays) claims nice even numbers like "three decades" or "5 million new jobs" or "will cost 3 billion dollars" you can rest assure that there were no real calculations made. It's the same BS from both parties.

[torchthemummy]

Where does the radiative forcing hide out during the 30 years of cooling? I want to go there, now.

This is like saying that if I put hot food directly into the freezer, once it has totally frozen, it’s former heat is still lurking somewhere. I hope it isn’t adjacent to the ice cream.

Great analogy!

[musicman]

"Global Warming: On Hold? (Ooops)"

[ConservativeMind]

But climate is known to be variable -- a cold winter, or a few strung together doesn't mean the planet is cooling. Still, according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.

How can they possibly say those two sentences in the same paragraph and have ANY credibility?

[ConservativeMind]

But just what's causing the cooling is a mystery.

Uh, the sun hasn't spotted on time the past two years and it will continue to worsen as the sun stays dormant?

[westmichman]

Until they admit that God is in control, they will continue to be stumped.

[Kenny Bunk]

Can you members of the VRWC not see that this Global Cooling is merely Mother Gaia's response to anthropogenic Global Warming?

Duh!

[NDpapajoe]

Translation of the UW-Milwaukee students comments: We are sticking with out conclusions AND our recommendations, with NO second thoughts, no matter what the facts turn out to be.

These people might be Scient-ologists. Or they could be scientist-like.

It’s an embarrassment to the University of Wisconsin system.

[NDpapajoe]

Oh, I guess they aren’t students after all, not clear in the article.

Hmmm, anyone wanna bet, that these 2 guys, or the department they work for, are already applying for future “grants for global climate change research”.

They might have undercut themselves, since they already know that Global Warming is “HIDING FOR 30 YEARS” (?!?!), how can they come to a different conclusion until approx 2040?

Un-freakin-real.

[colorado tanker]

LOL!

I give up - what's that picture from?

[KosmicKitty]

There ain’t no global warming in Connecticut today, that’s for sure! Off to shovel the 9” of snow off my front steps!

[w1andsodidwe]

"This is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950," Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. "Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn't have one."

My erudite theory is that all the hot air about CO2 in the atmosphere has caused less CO2 to be put into the atmosphere thus this global cooling is man made. We shall never know if my theory is correct, since the satellite that was to measure CO2 around the globe dropped into the ocean near Antarctica. But when did facts ever matter in this debate.