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Will Recession Make Cities Dangerous Again?
ABC news ^ | Dec. 4, 2008 | Geraldine Sealey

Posted on 03/02/2009 4:32:03 PM PST by Jet Jaguar

As if we needed any reminder that times in America have changed, there is further evidence that the nearly decade-long rally of prosperity and reduced crime has ended.

We are officially in a recession, a panel of experts told us last week, after months of speculation and hundreds of thousands of layoffs. At the same time, many big cities, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Boston and Pittsburgh are reporting an increase in homicides this year, potentially signaling an end to the slide in violent crime.

In Chicago as of last week, police had recorded 612 murders so far in 2001 compared to 584 in the same period last year. And in New York City in a recent four-week period, shootings were up 36.7 percent compared with the same period a year ago and murders were up 25 percent — although crime is still down about 13 percent for the year.

Even urban undesirables such as squeegee cleaners, panhandlers and illegal street vendors are appearing in greater numbers in New York these days, after dwindling during police crackdowns in recent years.

With developments like these, it would be reasonable for Americans to grow concerned that the recession is bringing a return to the urban grime and violence more common in the '70s and '80s.

But criminologists disagree about the connection between a sour economy and spikes in crime and whether aggressive policing strategies introduced in the last decade can prevent a sustained rise in crime.

"There's no iron law linking [the economy and crime]," said UCLA criminal justice professor Eric Monkkonen. "This recession could see a crime wave or could not see a crime wave. It could promote crime, but it could be 15 years from now."

Will Desperate People Turn to Crime?

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Government
KEYWORDS: acorn; bho44; bluezone; cities; urban; yes
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1 posted on 03/02/2009 4:32:03 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
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To: Jet Jaguar

Again ????


2 posted on 03/02/2009 4:32:58 PM PST by clamper1797 (FUBO ... The Kenyan Lincoln)
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To: clamper1797

LOL


3 posted on 03/02/2009 4:33:28 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (Atlas Shrugged Mode: ON)
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To: Jet Jaguar
We're all Detroiters now.
4 posted on 03/02/2009 4:35:11 PM PST by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bail out)
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To: Jet Jaguar

At which point did they become safe ?


5 posted on 03/02/2009 4:35:34 PM PST by lucias_clay
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To: Jet Jaguar

Yes, it’s already started.


6 posted on 03/02/2009 4:36:12 PM PST by Tarpon (It's a common fact, one can't be liberal and rational at the same time.)
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To: Jet Jaguar
..."There's no iron law linking [the economy and crime]," said UCLA criminal justice professor Eric Monkkonen. "This recession could see a crime wave or could not see a crime wave. It could promote crime, but it could be 15 years from now."

Oh, this guy nails it...

7 posted on 03/02/2009 4:36:14 PM PST by SGCOS
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To: Jet Jaguar
BHO will make them just Mugabe did the cities in Zimbabwe
8 posted on 03/02/2009 4:36:19 PM PST by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Waddya mean “again”?


9 posted on 03/02/2009 4:36:29 PM PST by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

YES.


10 posted on 03/02/2009 4:37:07 PM PST by Republic of Texas (Socialism Always Fails)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Even urban undesirables such as squeegee cleaners, panhandlers and illegal street vendors are appearing in greater numbers in New York these days, after dwindling during police crackdowns in recent years.

thanks to bloomberg. well at least we’re cracking down on salt and plastic bags.


11 posted on 03/02/2009 4:37:29 PM PST by ari-freedom (Hail to the Dork!)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Are they gonna cut off the Katrina gravy train?


12 posted on 03/02/2009 4:37:29 PM PST by umgud (I'm really happy I wasn't aborted)
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To: Jet Jaguar; wtc911
Maybe the re-emergent goblins will cause the annoying hipster douches from Middle America (red states, STOP sending NYC your obnoxiously smug/dysfunctional children!) who are pouring into my soon to be neighborhood. It was better off as a Greek/Latino/Italian/South Asian backwater. Now, the skinny jeans and Che t-shirt wearing Nilla wafers with the Whole Foods bags (can't shop locally, can you, friggin hippy-crates), will finally have to grow some balls or go crying back to mommy and daddy.

WTC, I believe you had some excellent commentary on a similar thread a few weeks back.

13 posted on 03/02/2009 4:39:31 PM PST by Clemenza (Remember our Korean War Veterans)
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To: clamper1797
Again ????

what Geraldine Sealey means...is this crime stuff going to affect her cocktail parties?

14 posted on 03/02/2009 4:41:23 PM PST by BookmanTheJanitor
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To: VRWC For Truth

On a positive note, Detroit’s homicide rate dropped 14 percent last year. That prompted mayoral candidate Stanley Christmas to tell the Detroit News recently, “I don’t mean to be sarcastic, but there just isn’t anyone left to kill.”

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-detroit-housingjan29,0,5435392.story


15 posted on 03/02/2009 4:41:33 PM PST by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Yes, and because lawlessness will increase throughout the land, people’s love/empathy will grow cold. And that, is a vicious cycle.


16 posted on 03/02/2009 4:41:40 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: Jet Jaguar

No, the economy has almost nothing to do with crime. During the Great Depression, the country did not see massive crime like the inner-cities do today, because they had a moral foundation based on Biblical teachings. Poverty doesn’t cause crime; crime causes poverty.


17 posted on 03/02/2009 4:42:41 PM PST by Longhair_and_Leather (The new presidential mantra--"Obama let babies die")
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To: Jet Jaguar

There was quite a large spike in violent crime and robbery during the 1930s. J. Edgar and WWII put a stop to much of that.


18 posted on 03/02/2009 4:44:08 PM PST by Clemenza (Remember our Korean War Veterans)
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To: Jet Jaguar
In Chicago as of last week, police had recorded 612 murders so far in 2001 compared to 584 in the same period last year.

Seems that the big, liberal cities never stopped being dangerous. I realize that Chicago is huge, but 584 murders is pretty enormous as well.

19 posted on 03/02/2009 4:46:01 PM PST by meyer (The left is flooding the ship - let's quit bailing water. We are all John Galt.)
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To: BookmanTheJanitor

Let Them Eat Shrimp!


20 posted on 03/02/2009 4:46:04 PM PST by blackminorca
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To: Longhair_and_Leather
I think you have been reading some bad history books. Statistically, violent crime AND robberies increased significantly in the 1930s. Hell, it got to the point where guys like Dillinger and Nelson were HEROES to the poor in the US.

BTW: Remember the ethnic group in this country that has the highest rate of church attendance. Look at their crime statistics relative to others. You won't like what you see.

21 posted on 03/02/2009 4:46:29 PM PST by Clemenza (Remember our Korean War Veterans)
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To: lucias_clay
Check the FBI uniform crime statistics. Crime has declined considerably in most cities. New York in the late 70's and mid 80's for example.

The most interesting part is "there is further evidence that the nearly decade-long rally of prosperity and reduced crime has ended."

Hold on? A "decade-long rally of prosperity" under Bush? No I never heard that from the MSM.

22 posted on 03/02/2009 4:53:13 PM PST by Smogger (It's the WOT Stupid)
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To: Longhair_and_Leather

Uh there was massive crime organized and otherwise during “the Great Depression.”

In fact the homicide rate peaked at 9.1 per 100,000 between 1931-35.

http://books.google.com/books?id=M7jNtwZs9VEC&pg=PA22&lpg=PA22&dq=fbi+uniform+crim+rates+during+the+great+depression&source=bl&ots=hW2VkVlD-Y&sig=xGaV1fGWnGMuUP-P-fkSo_y6ay4&hl=en&ei=1H-sSZzZBYKEsAPpz8HKBA&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=2&ct=result#PPA23,M1


23 posted on 03/02/2009 4:57:53 PM PST by Smogger (It's the WOT Stupid)
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To: Smogger

Thanks. My grandfather witnessed “the bad old days” first hand. Amazing to many on this site, but there was more open prostitution and illegal gambling back in the 1930s than there is today, and not just in Jersey City (where Nonno grew up).


24 posted on 03/02/2009 4:58:59 PM PST by Clemenza (Remember our Korean War Veterans)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Crime will increase dramatically. It will be much worse than the Depression. People now have no problem with taking what isn’t theirs, and they admire thugs and criminals.


25 posted on 03/02/2009 5:10:01 PM PST by tvdog12345
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To: Jet Jaguar
At the same time, many big cities, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Boston and Pittsburgh are reporting an increase in homicides this year

This came out today

The crime rate in Los Angeles is the lowest it has been since 1956 and last year the total number of homicides dropped to a 38-year low. The city expects to have more than 10,000 police officers by the end of the year.

http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/local/los_angeles&id=6686573

Los Angeles has less violent crime per capita than Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston, and less crime than most all other major cities in other states.

26 posted on 03/02/2009 5:15:12 PM PST by dragnet2
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To: Jet Jaguar

It will be worse now that 0 is president. We are experiencing 0’s economic collapse, and soon we will experience 0’s social collapse.


27 posted on 03/02/2009 5:27:44 PM PST by pallis
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To: Jet Jaguar
I hope so.... let's see... consequences of liberal judges, spending money on bullsh#t and not on jails, raising an entire generation of feral children now adults... a huge dependent class that can only think of the governments next check as their payday....

as an example... go to Detroit, Chicago, New York and New Orleans...go to a public housing area and see how many are "disabled" with SSI and just getting their checks to "get some from the man"...

Pathetic. If Detroit was on the gulf coast, you'd of seen the same thing that happened to new Orleans... bunch of idiots just standing around for the government to tell them what to do, cause they are incapable of even thinking an independent thought to save themselves.

We will never see another black president as long as my kids and grandkids live. Obama is the the democrats biggest joke on their african-american base.

28 posted on 03/02/2009 5:35:37 PM PST by erman (Outside of a dog, a book is man's best companion. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.)
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To: Jet Jaguar
I hope so.... let's see... consequences of liberal judges, spending money on bullsh#t and not on jails, raising an entire generation of feral children now adults... a huge dependent class that can only think of the governments next check as their payday....

as an example... go to Detroit, Chicago, New York and New Orleans...go to a public housing area and see how many are "disabled" with SSI and just getting their checks to "get some from the man"...

Pathetic. If Detroit was on the gulf coast, you'd of seen the same thing that happened to new Orleans... bunch of idiots just standing around for the government to tell them what to do, cause they are incapable of even thinking an independent thought to save themselves.

We will never see another black president as long as my kids and grandkids live. Obama is the the democrats biggest joke on their african-american base.

29 posted on 03/02/2009 5:35:37 PM PST by erman (Outside of a dog, a book is man's best companion. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.)
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To: dragnet2

The LAPD is a pretty good LE organization now.

However, the LA riots did source there. Some have speculated that we may be headed into another era of social unrest.


30 posted on 03/02/2009 5:41:56 PM PST by Wiseghy ("You want to break this army? Then break your word to it.")
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To: dragnet2

Could the “demographic shift in population” in South Central over the past few years had an effect on decreasing violent crime (immigration status notwithstanding). I do hear that crime has been increasing in the Smogland Empire, however.


31 posted on 03/02/2009 5:44:33 PM PST by Clemenza (Remember our Korean War Veterans)
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To: jiggyboy

I laughed out loud when I read that quote - Detroit sure has nailed the trifecta, unions, Dem leadership and affordable housing — $7,500 median home sale value.

Go Detroit!


32 posted on 03/02/2009 5:45:16 PM PST by sbMKE
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To: Wiseghy

I read this weekend that the Rodney King riots were in reality a massive coverup of a zombie outbreak in LA.


33 posted on 03/02/2009 5:47:54 PM PST by Old Sarge ("Remember, remember, the Fourth of November, the Socialist treason and plot...")
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To: Clemenza
Hispanics have out numbered Blacks for many years in LA. Many blacks no only moved to the inland empire, but completely out of state, many headed back to the south.

Article from way back in 2004:

____________________________________________________________ Sun Reporter, The 05-27-2004

For years, Blacks from the South were coming out West to build their futures and dreams, fleeing a region known for its harsh racism.

Now, however, more Blacks in California are going back South or to the fastest growing city in America: Las Vegas, according to a new report.

34 posted on 03/02/2009 5:57:27 PM PST by dragnet2
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To: dragnet2
Los Angeles has less violent crime per capita than Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston, and less crime than most all other major cities in other states.

I will let you in on a not so little secret about "crime data". It's hard to get real data. You ever try to report a property crime in Los Angeles or New York? I mean puhleeze.... it's a joke even in Houston. Now as far as strong armed robbery, mugging, disorderly conduct, rape.... lots of under reporting. I know that even in the little city I live in, that people show up in the ER and don't report who or what hit them cause they don't want the cops involved.

So if you really think LA is safer than other cities, I would not want to be driving around in your car as you amble north on the Harbor Freeway from the Harbor Gateway to visit the locals up near Lynwood or Compton..., or take the Pamona Freeway and visit some of my relatives near Pomona or Chino... or even upscale Rosemead... ... yeah crime is WAY down. Especially if you're inside locked down.

I had to be near the Naval Hospital in the area and my parents never let me do anything without them being around for the 13 months we were there. Same for Carlsbad, but it was a lot safer than LA.

Visited some friends living in Huntington Beach and I don't really miss it at all. It's a big blank for me now. Just remember traffic and going to the beach once in awhile.

I'm glad I have the option of living in Texas and flying anywhere I really want to visit.

35 posted on 03/02/2009 5:59:00 PM PST by erman (Outside of a dog, a book is man's best companion. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.)
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To: erman
I will let you in on a not so little secret about "crime data". It's hard to get real data.

LOL...

lots of under reporting. I know that even in the little city I live in, that people show up in the ER and don't report who or what hit them cause they don't want the cops involved.

That's BS.

Don't know what city you live in, but when someone shows up with a knife wound or gunshot wound, the ER in Los Angeles, or anywhere in California, the ER automatically calls the police. ((Immediately)) They are required to.

You seem to be suggesting they report crimes in Dallas for instance, but not in Los Angeles?

Get real.

Here is that "hard to get data."

Dallas and Los Angeles Comparative Crime Ratios per 100,000 People

Latest 2006 Crimes per 100,000 People:

Dallas, TX Los Angeles, CA National
Murder: 15 12.4 7
Forcible Rape: 53.28 27.3 32.2
Robbery: 553.9 370 205.8
Aggravated Assault: 584.2 377.2 336.5
Burglary: 1734.7 524.8 813.2
Larceny Theft: 4006.4 1539.2 2601.7
Vehicle Theft: 1116 654.4 501.5

36 posted on 03/02/2009 6:11:38 PM PST by dragnet2
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To: erman
So if you really think LA is safer than other cities

It is safer than most other major cities, and it's not what "I" think, and they are not "my" statistics, but they are real.

You'll just have to deal with it, and don't give me the BS that when brutally beat up rape victims and gunshot victims show up at the ER, it goes unreported and are not investigated.

NO SALE

37 posted on 03/02/2009 6:40:46 PM PST by dragnet2
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To: dragnet2
not shot or stabbed but strong armed with a beating... please I know that gets under reported. You are correct, by law all gsw, sexual assaults and "life threatening" injuries have to be reported. But burglaries, property crimes in cars, purse snatching, pushing somebody down and running away with their money, and some other "petty" crime gets under reported.

I've seen women that have been beaten, say they will NOT file charges once the cops show up and they walk away. If the woman has to be admitted and the DA is aggressive, he takes it out of her hands and charges him/assailant with assault.

That's why gangs exist in some neighborhoods. They are the law. They make you pay "protection" and are punks but they are "law" in the neighborhood.

That's all I meant. I'm sure that Los Angeles is actually very safe. It just seemed when I lived near there, it wasn't. I wasn't allowed to wear my khakis home with my shirt tail out or my mom would kick my a##, then my dad would.

I just don't think it's as "safe" as say..... San Marcos, New Braunfels, College Station, or San Angelo. Maybe Los Angeles is safer than those cities but you're right, I don't know that for a fact.

I like visiting Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, but wouldn't/couldn't live there.

Seriously, talk to a police officer and ask him if all crimes get reported. If the ones you talk to in Los Angeles say they do.... well I guess they do.

I just must know some officers in Dallas and Houston that are not statistically perfect in their reporting.

38 posted on 03/02/2009 8:30:08 PM PST by erman (Outside of a dog, a book is man's best companion. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.)
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To: clamper1797

You beat me to it. I wonder how many people have been to South Central Los Angeles? Chicago, Detroit...........all ghettos.


39 posted on 03/02/2009 8:34:33 PM PST by RC2
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To: Jet Jaguar

The weakening of welfare reform will bring crime back to 70’s and early 80’s levels.


40 posted on 03/02/2009 8:36:47 PM PST by GOPJ (People who can't use the new WH phone system are trying to redesign half the US economy - Brooks)
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To: tvdog12345

I think it might start to go sky high, then level off and drop.

How many houses can the average thug break into until somebody gets his number? Three? Five? Ten?

I’m betting the low end of the scale.

And just like alot of other phenomena, 90% of the activity is done by 5% of the participants.

As the squeeze gets tighter on normal, J6P Americans, their tolerance for some of the stuff is gonna decrease.
Dramatically.

Sadly, it also probably means kids who cut through somebodies lawn to go to the swimmin hole and really aren;t up to no good might get some lessons they don’t deserve...


41 posted on 03/02/2009 8:41:16 PM PST by djf (I saw a werewolf drinking a Pina Colada at Trader Vic's... and his hair was PERFECT!!)
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To: erman
not shot or stabbed but strong armed with a beating... please I know that gets under reported. You are correct, by law all gsw, sexual assaults and "life threatening" injuries have to be reported.

You don't know what the hell your talking about. No offense.

Look at the damn statistics man. We're basically talking *major* crimes here, like murder, rape, robbery, assault, vehicle theft etc.... You don't think people are going to report these crime?

Get real...Stop wasting my time here.

42 posted on 03/02/2009 9:48:12 PM PST by dragnet2
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To: Clemenza
"WILL" the recession make cities dangerous again? "WILL"?

Where has this guy been? That horse fled the barn a year ago.

And, you're right, all the fly-over immigrants are in for a rude awakening. Especially those who thought it was hip to homestead the frontiers.

43 posted on 03/03/2009 4:07:02 AM PST by wtc911 ("How you gonna get back down that hill?")
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To: dragnet2
You don't know what the hell your talking about. No offense.

Look at the damn statistics man. We're basically talking *major* crimes here, like murder, rape, robbery, assault, vehicle theft etc.... You don't think people are going to report these crime?

Get real...Stop wasting my time here.

oh, righty... maybe it was just in this time..click here

maybe it was just in this time,also.....click here

maybe it was just schools don't count.....click here

maybe it was just it doesn't count if it's in Philly.....click here

maybe it was just it doesn't count if it's in San Fran.....click here

maybe it was just it doesn't count if it's in a National Crime Survey....click here

I'm sorry to waste your time with facts.... cause I don't know what I'm talking about and you do. Thanks for enlightening me. It's not like I've lived in neighborhoods that don't like snitches and the police just LOVE to fill out paperwork for stuff that NOBODY cares about.

I'm sure there are cops that cross every T and dot every I.... but just maybe there are some that aren't as motivated to "take a bite out of crime" cause they might have to put in 28 hours in a day just to keep their heads above water with all the paper work and bullsh#t they have to deal with, day in and day out.

44 posted on 03/03/2009 8:47:42 AM PST by erman (Outside of a dog, a book is man's best companion. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

not Republican cities....

but I’d stay away from Detroit, San Fran, LA, Miami and anything in NJ.


45 posted on 03/03/2009 6:19:36 PM PST by bpjam (Tell your Rep/Senator to Google: Marjorie Mezvinsky. Yes, it IS a threat.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Curiously, New Orleans didn’t get any more wealthy but murders went down.

Hmmmm.....anything to do with the 300,000 people who left and didn’t come back. Did the murder rates in Dallas and Houston go up instead?


46 posted on 03/03/2009 6:28:59 PM PST by bpjam (Tell your Rep/Senator to Google: Marjorie Mezvinsky. Yes, it IS a threat.)
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To: Smogger; Clemenza
Something I found at flynnfiles.com:

If crime is caused by poverty, how does one explain the strange case of Michael Pickens? Cornwall, Connecticut police arrested Michael Pickens, son of billionaire T. Boone Pickens, for burglary after finding him hiding inside a fishing store and a cache of store items outside the shop. People are poorer in New Dehli than New York and were poorer during the Great Depression than during the 1970s. The crime rate is higher in New York than New Dehli and the crime rate was higher during the 1970s than during the Great Depression. Poverty is not the cause of crime, though crime can be the cause of poverty.

Your thoughts?

47 posted on 03/04/2009 3:02:22 PM PST by Longhair_and_Leather (The new presidential mantra--"Obama let babies die")
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To: Longhair_and_Leather

I think that young men (inevitably the source of most crime, especially violent crime, but also property crime) need to be gainfully employed and/or in school full time.

Idle hands are the devil’s tools.


48 posted on 03/04/2009 4:21:31 PM PST by Smogger (It's the WOT Stupid)
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To: Longhair_and_Leather
It's a downward spiral. Pickens was convicted of securities fraud.

Then it's robbery. Alcohol or drugs may have been involved.

My thoughts?

Next time you catch a burglar coming in through the window, don't be surprised if it's a partner in Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, or AIG.

49 posted on 03/04/2009 4:32:12 PM PST by x
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To: Longhair_and_Leather

Your argument would hold water were it not for the fact that murder and armed robbery were higher during the 1930s.


50 posted on 03/04/2009 4:38:30 PM PST by Clemenza (Remember our Korean War Veterans)
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