Will Recession Make Cities Dangerous Again?

ABC news ^ | Dec. 4, 2008 | Geraldine Sealey

[Jet Jaguar]

As if we needed any reminder that times in America have changed, there is further evidence that the nearly decade-long rally of prosperity and reduced crime has ended.

We are officially in a recession, a panel of experts told us last week, after months of speculation and hundreds of thousands of layoffs. At the same time, many big cities, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Boston and Pittsburgh are reporting an increase in homicides this year, potentially signaling an end to the slide in violent crime.

In Chicago as of last week, police had recorded 612 murders so far in 2001 compared to 584 in the same period last year. And in New York City in a recent four-week period, shootings were up 36.7 percent compared with the same period a year ago and murders were up 25 percent — although crime is still down about 13 percent for the year.

Even urban undesirables such as squeegee cleaners, panhandlers and illegal street vendors are appearing in greater numbers in New York these days, after dwindling during police crackdowns in recent years.

With developments like these, it would be reasonable for Americans to grow concerned that the recession is bringing a return to the urban grime and violence more common in the '70s and '80s.

But criminologists disagree about the connection between a sour economy and spikes in crime and whether aggressive policing strategies introduced in the last decade can prevent a sustained rise in crime.

"There's no iron law linking [the economy and crime]," said UCLA criminal justice professor Eric Monkkonen. "This recession could see a crime wave or could not see a crime wave. It could promote crime, but it could be 15 years from now."

Will Desperate People Turn to Crime?

[Clemenza]

I think you have been reading some bad history books. Statistically, violent crime AND robberies increased significantly in the 1930s. Hell, it got to the point where guys like Dillinger and Nelson were HEROES to the poor in the US.

BTW: Remember the ethnic group in this country that has the highest rate of church attendance. Look at their crime statistics relative to others. You won't like what you see.

[Smogger]

Check the FBI uniform crime statistics. Crime has declined considerably in most cities. New York in the late 70's and mid 80's for example.

The most interesting part is "there is further evidence that the nearly decade-long rally of prosperity and reduced crime has ended."

Hold on? A "decade-long rally of prosperity" under Bush? No I never heard that from the MSM.

[Smogger]

Uh there was massive crime organized and otherwise during “the Great Depression.”

In fact the homicide rate peaked at 9.1 per 100,000 between 1931-35.

http://books.google.com/books?id=M7jNtwZs9VEC&pg=PA22&lpg=PA22&dq=fbi+uniform+crim+rates+during+the+great+depression&source=bl&ots=hW2VkVlD-Y&sig=xGaV1fGWnGMuUP-P-fkSo_y6ay4&hl=en&ei=1H-sSZzZBYKEsAPpz8HKBA&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=2&ct=result#PPA23,M1

[Clemenza]

Thanks. My grandfather witnessed “the bad old days” first hand. Amazing to many on this site, but there was more open prostitution and illegal gambling back in the 1930s than there is today, and not just in Jersey City (where Nonno grew up).

[tvdog12345]

Crime will increase dramatically. It will be much worse than the Depression. People now have no problem with taking what isn’t theirs, and they admire thugs and criminals.

[dragnet2]

At the same time, many big cities, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Boston and Pittsburgh are reporting an increase in homicides this year

This came out today

The crime rate in Los Angeles is the lowest it has been since 1956 and last year the total number of homicides dropped to a 38-year low. The city expects to have more than 10,000 police officers by the end of the year.

http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/local/los_angeles&id=6686573

Los Angeles has less violent crime per capita than Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston, and less crime than most all other major cities in other states.

[pallis]

It will be worse now that 0 is president. We are experiencing 0’s economic collapse, and soon we will experience 0’s social collapse.

[erman]

I hope so.... let's see... consequences of liberal judges, spending money on bullsh#t and not on jails, raising an entire generation of feral children now adults... a huge dependent class that can only think of the governments next check as their payday....

as an example... go to Detroit, Chicago, New York and New Orleans...go to a public housing area and see how many are "disabled" with SSI and just getting their checks to "get some from the man"...

Pathetic. If Detroit was on the gulf coast, you'd of seen the same thing that happened to new Orleans... bunch of idiots just standing around for the government to tell them what to do, cause they are incapable of even thinking an independent thought to save themselves.

We will never see another black president as long as my kids and grandkids live. Obama is the the democrats biggest joke on their african-american base.

[erman]

I hope so.... let's see... consequences of liberal judges, spending money on bullsh#t and not on jails, raising an entire generation of feral children now adults... a huge dependent class that can only think of the governments next check as their payday....

as an example... go to Detroit, Chicago, New York and New Orleans...go to a public housing area and see how many are "disabled" with SSI and just getting their checks to "get some from the man"...

Pathetic. If Detroit was on the gulf coast, you'd of seen the same thing that happened to new Orleans... bunch of idiots just standing around for the government to tell them what to do, cause they are incapable of even thinking an independent thought to save themselves.

We will never see another black president as long as my kids and grandkids live. Obama is the the democrats biggest joke on their african-american base.

[Wiseghy]

The LAPD is a pretty good LE organization now.

However, the LA riots did source there. Some have speculated that we may be headed into another era of social unrest.

[Clemenza]

Could the “demographic shift in population” in South Central over the past few years had an effect on decreasing violent crime (immigration status notwithstanding). I do hear that crime has been increasing in the Smogland Empire, however.

[sbMKE]

I laughed out loud when I read that quote - Detroit sure has nailed the trifecta, unions, Dem leadership and affordable housing — $7,500 median home sale value.

Go Detroit!

[Old Sarge]

I read this weekend that the Rodney King riots were in reality a massive coverup of a zombie outbreak in LA.

[dragnet2]

Hispanics have out numbered Blacks for many years in LA. Many blacks no only moved to the inland empire, but completely out of state, many headed back to the south.

Article from way back in 2004:

____________________________________________________________ Sun Reporter, The 05-27-2004

For years, Blacks from the South were coming out West to build their futures and dreams, fleeing a region known for its harsh racism.

Now, however, more Blacks in California are going back South or to the fastest growing city in America: Las Vegas, according to a new report.

[erman]

Los Angeles has less violent crime per capita than Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston, and less crime than most all other major cities in other states.

I will let you in on a not so little secret about "crime data". It's hard to get real data. You ever try to report a property crime in Los Angeles or New York? I mean puhleeze.... it's a joke even in Houston. Now as far as strong armed robbery, mugging, disorderly conduct, rape.... lots of under reporting. I know that even in the little city I live in, that people show up in the ER and don't report who or what hit them cause they don't want the cops involved.

So if you really think LA is safer than other cities, I would not want to be driving around in your car as you amble north on the Harbor Freeway from the Harbor Gateway to visit the locals up near Lynwood or Compton..., or take the Pamona Freeway and visit some of my relatives near Pomona or Chino... or even upscale Rosemead... ... yeah crime is WAY down. Especially if you're inside locked down.

I had to be near the Naval Hospital in the area and my parents never let me do anything without them being around for the 13 months we were there. Same for Carlsbad, but it was a lot safer than LA.

Visited some friends living in Huntington Beach and I don't really miss it at all. It's a big blank for me now. Just remember traffic and going to the beach once in awhile.

I'm glad I have the option of living in Texas and flying anywhere I really want to visit.

[dragnet2]

I will let you in on a not so little secret about "crime data". It's hard to get real data.

LOL...

lots of under reporting. I know that even in the little city I live in, that people show up in the ER and don't report who or what hit them cause they don't want the cops involved.

That's BS.

Don't know what city you live in, but when someone shows up with a knife wound or gunshot wound, the ER in Los Angeles, or anywhere in California, the ER automatically calls the police. ((Immediately)) They are required to.

You seem to be suggesting they report crimes in Dallas for instance, but not in Los Angeles?

Get real.

Here is that "hard to get data."

Dallas and Los Angeles Comparative Crime Ratios per 100,000 People

Latest 2006 Crimes per 100,000 People:

	Dallas, TX	Los Angeles, CA	National
Murder:	15	12.4	7
Forcible Rape:	53.28	27.3	32.2
Robbery:	553.9	370	205.8
Aggravated Assault:	584.2	377.2	336.5
Burglary:	1734.7	524.8	813.2
Larceny Theft:	4006.4	1539.2	2601.7
Vehicle Theft:	1116	654.4	501.5

[dragnet2]

So if you really think LA is safer than other cities

It is safer than most other major cities, and it's not what "I" think, and they are not "my" statistics, but they are real.

You'll just have to deal with it, and don't give me the BS that when brutally beat up rape victims and gunshot victims show up at the ER, it goes unreported and are not investigated.

NO SALE

[erman]

not shot or stabbed but strong armed with a beating... please I know that gets under reported. You are correct, by law all gsw, sexual assaults and "life threatening" injuries have to be reported. But burglaries, property crimes in cars, purse snatching, pushing somebody down and running away with their money, and some other "petty" crime gets under reported.

I've seen women that have been beaten, say they will NOT file charges once the cops show up and they walk away. If the woman has to be admitted and the DA is aggressive, he takes it out of her hands and charges him/assailant with assault.

That's why gangs exist in some neighborhoods. They are the law. They make you pay "protection" and are punks but they are "law" in the neighborhood.

That's all I meant. I'm sure that Los Angeles is actually very safe. It just seemed when I lived near there, it wasn't. I wasn't allowed to wear my khakis home with my shirt tail out or my mom would kick my a##, then my dad would.

I just don't think it's as "safe" as say..... San Marcos, New Braunfels, College Station, or San Angelo. Maybe Los Angeles is safer than those cities but you're right, I don't know that for a fact.

I like visiting Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, but wouldn't/couldn't live there.

Seriously, talk to a police officer and ask him if all crimes get reported. If the ones you talk to in Los Angeles say they do.... well I guess they do.

I just must know some officers in Dallas and Houston that are not statistically perfect in their reporting.

[RC2]

You beat me to it. I wonder how many people have been to South Central Los Angeles? Chicago, Detroit...........all ghettos.

[GOPJ]

The weakening of welfare reform will bring crime back to 70’s and early 80’s levels.