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Dow 5000? A Bearish Bet That Looks Quite Possible
Wall Street Journal ^

Posted on 03/08/2009 3:48:15 PM PDT by maccaca

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21 posted on 03/08/2009 4:26:01 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Petronski

I’m looking for that bounce to get out.


22 posted on 03/08/2009 4:38:41 PM PDT by outofsalt ("If History teaches us anything it's that history rarely teaches us anything")
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To: maccaca

Wow, I figured 3000.


23 posted on 03/08/2009 4:39:26 PM PDT by Sig Sauer P220 (Birth certificates are for suckers.)
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To: maccaca

I said 5,000 on here two weeks ago....I think it will be July before it happens though.


24 posted on 03/08/2009 4:41:01 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: maccaca

5000 puts us around the time the housing bubble opened up in 95. I’ve clung to this as the basement for a while now.

It is also when I started working productively.

Awesome returns on my investments.


25 posted on 03/08/2009 4:42:00 PM PDT by steveyp
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To: maccaca

5000? Are they kidding? It’ll be there by April 15th.


26 posted on 03/08/2009 4:45:57 PM PDT by DCPatriot ("It aint what you don't know that kills you. It's what you know that aint so" Theodore Sturgeon))
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To: PGR88

Correctomundo!

This is not a typical bear marker operating in the arena of free ideas and competition anymore. This is something altogether different and very ugly. We have an adminisitration hell-bent on destroying Capitalism and the free market. We have a government starved for revenues and will do anything to access (tax) working capital to funds it’s growing needs. We have an administration which sees this crisis as an opportunity to do it’s social engineering. So it has no incentive whatsoever to alleviate this crisis, fix the banking problems, etc. The longer the crisis the longer the opportunity.


27 posted on 03/08/2009 4:48:04 PM PDT by Boanarges
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To: Petronski

I heave seen many references to the “dead-cat-bounce”, but really do not have a good understanding of what it means. I am smart enough to know that a dead cat will still go back to the bottom, but am not sure why they happen.

Could you explain it for a “non-investor”?


28 posted on 03/08/2009 4:49:20 PM PDT by jacquej
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To: maccaca

Obama’s policies of increasing taxes and spending has been equivalent to throwing gasoline on a fire. No telling when or where this thing stops at this point, and at these levels every ~600 points on the DOW is another 10%, but if you’ve ridden it down this far it’s probably too late to pull out now, plus we need SOMEBODY to stay in long to help it finally find the bottom.


29 posted on 03/08/2009 5:07:38 PM PDT by Golden Eagle (In God We Trust)
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To: maccaca

They are thinking too small. DJIA 3,000 is becoming a serious possibility. That is not even worst case. In the great depression, the DOW lost 89%. From the 14,200 peak, an 89% loss is 1560. That should give everyone something to think about. Anybody who is holding stocks in this market is in for serious losses.


30 posted on 03/08/2009 5:09:25 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Depression Countdown: 58... 57... 56...)
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To: maccaca

The Dow is bouncing off support at 6,500 if it breaks below this level I think it’s next support level is around 5,400. IMHO as Atlas Shurgges and withdraws capital from the markets we could even reach a Dow 3,000.


31 posted on 03/08/2009 5:09:39 PM PDT by stockpirate (A people unwilling to use violent force to defend liberty deserves the tyrant that rules them SP)
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To: Farmer Dean

Well at least it can’t drop below zero...can it?


32 posted on 03/08/2009 5:11:04 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: maccaca
Does anyone know why the Dow jumped up, instantaneously, late Friday afternoon? The “Plunge Protection Team” was mentioned on here. Not sure what that is.

The market was down well over 100 points and jumped into the positive in a couple of minutes.

Examining the 30 stocks that make up the DJIA, it can be seen that this jump occurred in a number of them. It was as if there was simultaneous buying in a number of stocks.

33 posted on 03/08/2009 5:24:42 PM PDT by Aglooka (Posting from New Hampshachusetts (Formerly New Hampshire))
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To: stockpirate

Low PE’s don’t mean a thing if the companies can’t get that bling. Do wah do wah ...


34 posted on 03/08/2009 5:27:28 PM PDT by bvw
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To: Oldexpat
I can’t see much that will rally the market in the next month,but can list a lot of things that will send it lower. My bet is we will see 5500 in the next 30 days.

At least one financial "expert" believes that the new housing bill will stabilize things because people will be able to stay in there homes.

Beats me. Wall Street is a bunch of people who shuffle paper around to make money. They buy a piece of paper, hold onto it, then sell it an get money.

35 posted on 03/08/2009 5:29:29 PM PDT by Aglooka (Posting from New Hampshachusetts (Formerly New Hampshire))
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To: maccaca

My original prediction was a 5,000 Dow by the end of 2010, I have now moved up my prediction of a 5,000 Dow by the end of this year. Imagine how the MSM and Democrats would have reacted if there had been such a stock market free fall during the Bush administration ...now their silence is deafening.


36 posted on 03/08/2009 5:30:11 PM PDT by The Great RJ ("Mir we bleiwen wat mir sin" or "We want to remain what we are." ..Luxembourg motto)
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To: Aglooka

nothing more than shorts covering before the weekend


37 posted on 03/08/2009 5:38:25 PM PDT by sheana
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To: muawiyah
Obama is setting himself up with his special reserve fund for his health care reform ~ even as the economy recovers, which it will always do, such a large amount will be siphoned off for that reserve

I wonder about that "reserve." It sounds suspiciously like an Algorean "lockbox."

38 posted on 03/08/2009 5:45:17 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: hinckley buzzard
More properly called "The Owlgorian Locketbox" it serves as a theoretical repository for dedicated tax revenues.

Just about every government in North America has gone through actual or functional bankruptcy over the last two centuries. All made use of Owlgorian Locketbox techniques to prohibit using tax revenues for necessary functions of government.

One of the most egregious examples of this little monster at work is the old Illinois & Michigan Canal (I believe it is/was named).

This canal was given municipal authority to levy taxes and sell bonds. They continue to rent lots for homes, collect taxes on them, and are still paying off the bonds (which I believe are actually uncollectible).

Went out of business a century and a half ago when the state went bankrupt.

39 posted on 03/08/2009 5:59:24 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: jacquej
From Wikipedia: A dead cat bounce is a figurative term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement, with the connotation that the rise was not an indication of improving circumstances in the fundamentals of the stock. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height".

This describes the meaning of the term as I understand it.

40 posted on 03/08/2009 6:02:21 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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