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Sea levels to surge 'at least a metre' by century end
AFP via Yahoo ^ | 03/10/09 | Marlowe Hood

Posted on 03/11/2009 4:53:06 AM PDT by Abathar

COPENHAGEN (AFP) – Months before make-or-break climate negotiations, a conclave of scientists warned Tuesday that the impact of global warming was accelerating beyond a forecast made by UN experts two years ago.

Sea levels this century may rise several times higher than predictions made in 2007 that form the scientific foundation for policymakers today, the meeting heard.

In March 2007, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming, if unchecked, would lead to a devastating amalgam of floods, drought, disease and extreme weather by the century end.

The world's oceans would creep up 18 to 59 centimetres (7 to 23 inches), enough to wipe out several small island nations, and wreak havoc for tens of millions living in low-lying deltas in east Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Africa.

But a new study, presented at the Copenhagen meeting on Tuesday, factored in likely water runoff from disintegrating glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, and found the rise could be much higher.

The IPCC estimate had been based largely on the expansion of oceans from higher temperatures, rather than meltwater and the impact of glaciers tumbling into the sea.

Using the new model, "we get a range of sea level rise by 2100 between 75 and 190 centimetres when we apply the IPCC's temperature scenarios for the future," said climate expert Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Even if the world manages to dramatically cut the emission of greenhouse gases driving global warming, the "best estimate" is about one metre (3.25 feet), he said.

"A few years ago, those of us who talked about the impact of the ice sheets were seen as extremists. Today it is recognized as the central issue," said glaciologist Eric Rignot of the University of California at Irvine.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: endoftheworld; globalwarming
It sure seems to me that these activists are coming out of the woodwork lately with their extreme and dire predictions.

The hip new buzzwords thrown around now: Tipping Point. They miss a piece of ice the size of California but things like that don't matter, the computer models are seen as gospel.

1 posted on 03/11/2009 4:53:06 AM PDT by Abathar
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To: Abathar
Ahhhh, I see the commies are creating the next “crisis”.
2 posted on 03/11/2009 4:54:55 AM PDT by NoGrayZone (Who Is John Galt?)
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To: Abathar
It sure seems to me that these activists are coming out of the woodwork...

..that happens when the $$$$$$ truck overturns

3 posted on 03/11/2009 4:55:18 AM PDT by Doogle (USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: Abathar

If only we could discover what space age technology the cave men used to survive the end of the ice age.


4 posted on 03/11/2009 4:59:07 AM PDT by cripplecreek (The poor bastards have us surrounded.)
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To: Abathar
If sea levels rise enough to flood Washington DC, we could all be saved.

The sooner the better!

5 posted on 03/11/2009 4:59:31 AM PDT by DTogo (Time to bring back the Sons of Liberty.)
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To: Abathar

So the north east of the US, NY city, San Francisco, Santa Cruz may end up under water .... (scratching head wonder what the down side is).


6 posted on 03/11/2009 4:59:32 AM PDT by svcw
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To: Abathar

When you run into one of these -— Just met someone yesterday that said we were all going to be underwater because of this last meter rise. So it’s going around on the kook’s message boards. When I asked him the question ... How much has the sea level risen since the end of the last ice age 12,000 years ago -— Blank stare, when I said 100 meters, another blank stare.

So I inquire, how is paying taxes going to lower the sea level?

Ask people questions, they can’t answer. But they sure know we are all gonna die unless we pay huge taxes to the government. What’s their stake in the game ...


7 posted on 03/11/2009 5:04:13 AM PDT by Tarpon (It's a common fact, one can't be liberal and rational at the same time.)
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To: svcw

Sounds like our salvation to me. It seems like the colder it gets the faster they ratchet up predictions of global warming! Maybe their thermometers are upside down.


8 posted on 03/11/2009 5:04:37 AM PDT by midwyf (Wyoming Native. Environmentalism is a religion too.)
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To: Abathar

It’s not the validity of the evidence: it’s the fear factor of the threats.

Socialism and islamic radicalism pose a much greater threat to “small island nations” and big ones alike.


9 posted on 03/11/2009 5:04:49 AM PDT by SlowBoat407 (Obama had to destroy the economy in order to save it.)
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To: Abathar

A century! That’s too late. I wanna stop having to dredge out my boat channel now.


10 posted on 03/11/2009 5:06:54 AM PDT by diverteach (http://www.slapobama.com/)
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To: Abathar

Note to self: Get cemetery plot on high ground.


11 posted on 03/11/2009 5:09:26 AM PDT by Jaxter (Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum.)
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To: Abathar

I live 10 hours from the nearest beach, this is good news because it’ll only be about... maybe 8 hours away.


12 posted on 03/11/2009 5:10:04 AM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: cripplecreek
If only we could discover what space age technology the cave men used to survive the end of the ice age.

But...but...but... they DIDN"t survive, that's the point?

Do you see any cave men around today?

13 posted on 03/11/2009 5:12:09 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: svcw

I’ve only been to SF once and that was in the fog, at night, but I remember it being well over a meter above the ocean, in most parts.


14 posted on 03/11/2009 5:12:15 AM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: cripplecreek

Ogg discover fire, start global warming, save Ogg whole clan from extinction by cold.

Then sabertooth tiger eat whole clan...

Ogg understand irony.


15 posted on 03/11/2009 5:14:17 AM PDT by Dr.Zoidberg (Warning: Sarcasm/humor is always engaged. Failure to recognize this may lead to misunderstandings.)
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To: Abathar
Sea levels to surge 'at least a metre' by century end

Actually they will do that by noon today; and then they will recede again about five and a half hours later.

ML/NJ

16 posted on 03/11/2009 5:14:28 AM PDT by ml/nj
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To: midwyf
Maybe their thermometers are upside down.

Interesting fact - in the 1700's it was thought that COLD was a force (not just the absence of heat). Anders Celsius invented a temperature scale where 0 was the boiling point of water (not very cold), and 100 was the freezing point.

Maybe they found some of these thermometers.

17 posted on 03/11/2009 5:15:37 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: ml/nj

Around here they surge a meter every few seconds.


18 posted on 03/11/2009 5:18:52 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Dr.Zoidberg

Then Ogg learn how to build boat, save clan from Sabertooth tiger and Global Warming.

Tiger no like water, go extinct from starvation.

Ogg go back to cave, build bigger fire.


19 posted on 03/11/2009 5:25:07 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (WHAT? Where did my tag line go? (ACORN))
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To: Abathar
Sea levels this century MAY rise several times higher than predictions

Corollary: Sea levels this century MAY NOT rise several times higher than predictions.

The IPCC estimate had been based largely on the expansion of oceans from higher temperatures, rather than meltwater and the impact of glaciers tumbling into the sea.

Yeah... the meltwater and glaciers tumbling scenario has been thoroughly debunked, they had to come up with some other fake computer model.... (yawn).

Even if the world manages to dramatically cut the emission of greenhouse gases driving global warming, the "best estimate" is about one metre (3.25 feet), he said.

Oh, ok, then no need to spend _Trillions of dollars_ we don't have, and hamstring business with needless regulation and taxes in order to save a few inches.

Among the worst hit countries will be Bangladesh , which would lose some 17 percent of its landmass, displacing nearly 15 million people.

The 'poor' hardest hit... Bangladeshis live in the most fertile land on the planet and they are still married to the jute business through their socialist gov't. They could have been the US or Brazil and feed the world - but they themselves starve... (sigh).

Amazing that they are still on the polar ice cap thing - debunked every year. (ie Arctic only of course - "global warming" doesn't affect Antarctica!) And even the Arctic cap comes and goes. When it goes, it's news; when it comes, it isn't.

20 posted on 03/11/2009 5:26:34 AM PDT by Kent C
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To: svcw

“So the north east of the US, NY city, San Francisco, Santa Cruz may end up under water .... (scratching head wonder what the down side is).”

Perhaps we could speed things up a mite if everybody would simultaneously light a candle and exhale.
And the folks in Washington, DC are welcome to fart as well.

I see good things coming from this.


21 posted on 03/11/2009 5:26:42 AM PDT by bossmechanic (If all else fails, hit it with a hammer)
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To: Abathar; CygnusXI; Entrepreneur; Defendingliberty; WL-law; Genesis defender; proud_yank; FrPR; ...
 




Beam me to Planet Gore !

22 posted on 03/11/2009 5:27:41 AM PDT by steelyourfaith (Yo, Washingtonians, the American people called. They DEMAND their country back.)
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To: Abathar
COPENHAGEN (AFP) – Months before make-or-break climate negotiations, a conclave of scientists warned Tuesday that the impact of global warming was accelerating beyond a forecast made by UN experts two years ago.

It is time for "adult supervision" to overview such questionable predictions. Just what models, assumptions, data, and methodology led to this frightening prediction? The publication authorities may need to show a little discrimination before allowing questionable results to be published, or, at a minimum, qualify them by also publishing the scenarios that lead to such conclusions. Perhaps the probability of all of this coming together is one chance in four hundred trillion, so not to worry, because it is more likely that one or more oceans will dry up. Which is more ridiculous?

23 posted on 03/11/2009 5:29:08 AM PDT by olezip
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To: Abathar
Paragraph 2: "n March 2007, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming, if unchecked, would lead to a devastating amalgam of floods, drought, disease and extreme weather by the century end."

Fortunately, global warming has been "checked". Most recent data has shown no global warming for more than a decade. This makes global warming activists, such as reported here, nothing but unhinged kooks. These reporters and activists deserve our pity, not our time.

24 posted on 03/11/2009 5:29:08 AM PDT by norwaypinesavage (Global Warming Theory is extremely robust with respect to data. All observations confirm it)
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To: Abathar
Sea levels to surge 'at least a metre' by century end

Yeah...sure...right. Another Tsunami of Bull$hit.

25 posted on 03/11/2009 5:29:50 AM PDT by GoldenPup
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To: svcw

It’s funny the water is only rising at their end of the tub!!


26 posted on 03/11/2009 5:30:06 AM PDT by timetostand
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To: Dr.Zoidberg

Good one, I’m still laughing.


27 posted on 03/11/2009 5:31:50 AM PDT by Dad was my hero
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Ogg go back to cave, build bigger fire.

Ogg for President!

Slogan, "Ogg no need teleprompter!"
28 posted on 03/11/2009 5:32:45 AM PDT by Dr.Zoidberg (Warning: Sarcasm/humor is always engaged. Failure to recognize this may lead to misunderstandings.)
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To: bossmechanic

LOL!


29 posted on 03/11/2009 5:33:35 AM PDT by Neverforget01 (Mr. Obama, your agenda is not new, it is not change, it is not hope...... Rush)
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To: Abathar

The only level that is surging is the level of BS regarding global warming.


30 posted on 03/11/2009 5:40:56 AM PDT by GBA
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To: Abathar

Mark off South Florida and much of Louisiana.. unless this is bull Squeeze..


31 posted on 03/11/2009 5:44:18 AM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: svcw
So the north east of the US, NY city, San Francisco, Santa Cruz may end up under water .... (scratching head wonder what the down side is).

Those people will become your neighbors.

32 posted on 03/11/2009 5:47:41 AM PDT by Travis T. OJustice (Want to make a conservative angry? Lie to him. Want to make a liberal angry? Tell him the truth)
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To: Abathar

The only way the sea level will rise that much is if Ted Kennedy and Rosie O’Donnell go swimming together.


33 posted on 03/11/2009 5:47:52 AM PDT by Hacklehead (Liberalism is the art of taking what works, breaking it, and then blaming conservatives.)
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To: Abathar
Typical Liberal-speak. "Surge"= 1 meter over 90 years. Translation:
Fear! Fire! Foes! The sky is falling. Warning, Will Robinson!
A crisis is a terrible opportunity to waste.
34 posted on 03/11/2009 5:56:45 AM PDT by Sudetenland (Victory in 2012...but first Victory in 2010!!!)
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To: Hacklehead
The only way the sea level will rise that much is if Ted Kennedy and Rosie O’Donnell go swimming together.

That was funny.

35 posted on 03/11/2009 5:58:01 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life.)
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To: Abathar
The defining phrase here is:
Using the new model,
Those who deal with data see reality, those who deal with models see fantasy. Models can be and are routinely are "tweaked to improve accuracy." In their vernacular, "accuracy" means increasing the urgency to assure research funding.
36 posted on 03/11/2009 6:01:27 AM PDT by Sudetenland (Victory in 2012...but first Victory in 2010!!!)
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To: Abathar
I would have a LOT MORE CONFIDENCE if someone somewhere could show me a single computer model that would match CURRENT CONDITIONS from a significant past start point. The vast majority of our dependable climate records goes back only 150 years yet there always seem to be 'explanations' of why various fudge factors are needed to make results match current conditions.

Computer modeling is as much an art as it is a science and much depends upon the assumptions that are made, consciously and otherwise. Additionally there is far more to consider when you consider the entire Earth as a single but ever-changing environment. It is no accident that meteorologists need the very best and most powerful computing platforms just to do 3-5 day forecasts. The interplay of factors in a column of atmosphere extending from ground level to space is almost unbelievable.

In this prediction of a 3+ foot rise in mean sea level, I wonder what compensating factors do their computer models take into account for the following factors; increase in solar bounce-back from an increase in iceberg coverage, where the increased water evaporation from the increased water surface will be deposited and so on? Are these scientist more competent than I? Yes without a doubt. Are they more competent than the 'dissenters' who, despite Al Gore's risible protestations, are becoming an increasingly significant protest movement against anthropocentric global climate change? I have most considerable DOUBTS!

37 posted on 03/11/2009 6:10:59 AM PDT by SES1066 (Cycling to conserve, Conservative to save, Saving to Retire, will Retire to Cycle.)
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To: Izzy Dunne
Do you see any cave men around today?

I just saw one advertising some insurance co. a few days ago.

38 posted on 03/11/2009 6:17:33 AM PDT by dearolddad
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To: hosepipe

The Netherlands is a geographically low-lying country, with about 27% of its area and 60% of its population located below sea level.

Yup, 3 feet will kill the world! We have to stop it!
Look how many Dutch people drown in the streets every day!


39 posted on 03/11/2009 6:21:32 AM PDT by BillM
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To: SES1066

Why do you call them scientists? They are modelers. I started my career as a scientist. The scientific method shaped my knowledge. In the 70’s I got into computing. The only science in the computer is the actual manufactured parts. Programs can do anything.

Do you realize that you can come up with a single equation that will pass exactly through N distinct data points? The equation will be of order N-1.

It will pass through all, but there is no guarantee where it goes between these points or beyond them.


40 posted on 03/11/2009 6:29:35 AM PDT by BillM
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To: Sudetenland
Models can be and are routinely are "tweaked to improve accuracy."

SOP is to start with the result you want, then reverse engineer it, by cooking the number that make it so. This didn't happen as much when there wasn't loads taxpayer money going for grants to Ecowacko science departments. They were still striving for facts/truth. Not anymore unfortunately and it starts with the political correctness of certain sciences in elementary school. Any disagreement or challenge will get you a low grade or later, will cost you your job.

41 posted on 03/11/2009 6:39:24 AM PDT by Kent C
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To: Jaxter
Note to self: Get cemetery plot on high ground.

I've got that covered. I'll be planted at Fort Bliss National Cemetary.

42 posted on 03/11/2009 6:41:11 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (Don't blame me...I voted for Palin!)
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To: BillM
I agree ... obviously. I too have been involved with and programming computers since the late 70s. It is one thing when you are doing accounting, computers and humans use the same rules and SHOULD get the same results ALWAYS. Bernard Madoff, Allen Stanford and government budgets to the contrary.

I think that a LARGE PART of the problem boils down to 'If it bleeds, it leads' in media and grants! Couple that with the old concept that it must be true if it is in print 'updated' to it must be true if the computer says so. Models must account for derivative factors and in climate modeling these can go on for MANY orders where the original data is almost invisible. Computers are the only machines that can do this BUT the GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out) factor rules as assumptions far more complex than 'Ice melts as Temperature rises' have to be taken into account.

(FYI: this above simple rule also makes the assumption of 'standard pressure'. Change the pressure and you can get other results or your curves may go awry! /grin)

43 posted on 03/11/2009 7:08:52 AM PDT by SES1066 (Cycling to conserve, Conservative to save, Saving to Retire, will Retire to Cycle.)
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