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Tornado outbreak likely in the plains today(rare HIGH risk issued)
SPC/NWS/weatherforum ^

Posted on 04/26/2009 9:04:59 AM PDT by janetjanet998

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 261554Z - 261700Z

SEE GRAPHIC FOR MDT-HIGH RISK LINES EXPECTED FOR 1630Z SWODY1 UPDATE.

HIGH RISK UPGRADE WILL INCLUDE SCNTRL KS AND NWRN/NCNTRL-WCNTRL OK WITH A MDT RISK SPANNING FROM NWRN TX/ERN TX PNHDL ENEWD INTO CNTRL OK AND CNTRL/ERN KS.

IMPRESSIVE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTN FOR A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

BRIEF THOUGHTS /DETAILS FORTHCOMING IN SWODY1 UPDATE/...

MORNING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT OF ACCAS FIELD WILL TRANSLATE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS AND NWRN OK THROUGH EARLY AFTN. PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SFC-BASED AS POCKETS OF HEATING LOCALLY ERODE CINH. ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM UPSTREAM ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT IN ERN TX PNHDL/NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS.

PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE BELOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT RICH MOISTURE INFLUX WILL FAVOR LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED IN A CORRIDOR FROM NWRN TX INTO SCNTRL KS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW OVER OK PNHDL/SWRN KS...BOOSTING SRH AND RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Kansas; US: Oklahoma; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: tornadoes; weather
CLICK HERE to follow the action from stormchasers, meteorologists, and severe weather experts...(must register to view graphics)


1 posted on 04/26/2009 9:04:59 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

Note: It takes a member sign up with e-mail verification to view images on that link...but its a great site.the FR of the weather world


2 posted on 04/26/2009 9:09:13 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

rare PDS tornado watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF FRONTAL
ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM NCENTRAL KS TO TX PANHANDLE. STORMS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS WARM
SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS BECOMING
MOST LIKELY DURING LATER PORTIONS OF WATCH PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL.


3 posted on 04/26/2009 9:12:29 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

Since when are spring tornados on the plains rare?


4 posted on 04/26/2009 9:18:54 AM PDT by cripplecreek (The poor bastards have us surrounded.)
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To: cripplecreek

High risks and PDS tornado watches are rare only a few times a year...

the last one was issued a few weeks ago...with 60 tornadoes reported in the TN valley area


5 posted on 04/26/2009 9:22:23 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

Glad I live in Ohio.:)

Course, we get ours, too - an F2 passed about 1/2 mi. from my house last year.


6 posted on 04/26/2009 9:43:44 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (And he whispered, "Look behind you! Remember that you are but a man!")
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To: janetjanet998
Usually you see a 'moderate' or 'slight' risk, 'high' would be more like a certainty.
7 posted on 04/26/2009 9:45:42 AM PDT by Seven plus One
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To: janetjanet998

Tornados can be fun. Go out there and get completely drenched by those big slushy ice balls. Then hang around for a blow-dry. Your ears may be ringing for a while because of the low pressure.


8 posted on 04/26/2009 9:51:53 AM PDT by BobS
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To: janetjanet998

moved to frontpage


9 posted on 04/26/2009 10:15:59 AM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: cripplecreek

It’s the “high risk” warning that is rare. It’s not uncommon to have tornadoes even when the forecast is for “slight” or “medium” risk. So the “high” designation, as well as “long-lived supercells” is alarming indeed. The folks in Norman don’t issue it often.


10 posted on 04/26/2009 10:22:49 AM PDT by Jedidah
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To: janetjanet998

A tornado “outbreak”? Has the flu fiasco played on everyone’s minds? ;)

Not good though...let’s see, we’ve got swine flu ravaging the nation, the Taliban coming within 60 miles of Islamabad, and a high risk of tornadoes in the plains region...Tamiflu, Taliban, and tornadoes, oh my!


11 posted on 04/26/2009 11:15:00 AM PDT by G8 Diplomat (I'm learning Arabic, Farsi, Urdu, Pashtu, and Russian so someday you won't have to)
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To: All

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE
NWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA.


12 posted on 04/26/2009 11:43:04 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: TonyInOhio

What’s the weather in Ohio for the next two days? My son is driving there today and should be leaving on Tuesday. Just a concerned parent. Thanks.


13 posted on 04/26/2009 12:05:31 PM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: All

after a slow start things getting going

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=196155&st=420&start=420


14 posted on 04/26/2009 2:29:40 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: presently no screen name

Northwest Ohio (Toledo) Thunderstorms tonight...maybe.
Rain tomorrow...maybe. Windy, but not necessarily stormy for sure the next few days.


15 posted on 04/26/2009 3:54:39 PM PDT by madison10
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To: janetjanet998

/mark


16 posted on 04/26/2009 4:52:12 PM PDT by happinesswithoutpeace (You are receiving this broadcast as a dream)
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To: madison10
Thank you!
17 posted on 04/26/2009 4:58:42 PM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: janetjanet998
We got hit with what they are calling a severe thunderstorm yesterday(Michigan). We were without power for 36 hours and a LARGE storage shed about 1/2 mile away was completely destroyed. I'm tempted to call it a small tornado, considering the damage done.

CC

18 posted on 04/26/2009 5:09:17 PM PDT by Celtic Conservative (Calling illegal aliens "undocumented workers" is like calling drug dealers "unlicensed pharmacists")
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To: All

so far this didn’t live up to its potential


19 posted on 04/26/2009 6:43:50 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

This is a rather rare event, as I heard today on The Weather Channel. They had a part of the map marked in white, not just the ususal orange and red areas, but white which symbolizes even higher risk for very severe weather. I was in a tornado hit area when I was about 10. It took our whole farm, thankfully no persons were killed, only livestock. Believe me, you never forget an experience like that. We were in the old basement, and hunkered down there until it was quiet. When we looked outside all our barns were flat as pancakes. It took months to clean it up. I never ignore signs of bad weather. We get frequent tornadoes here in WI, but not nearly as many as elsewhere. Seeing that white area on the weather map today alarmed me, it was as far as I can remember the first time I saw that elevated level of risk. The meterologist remarked how rare it was to use that high amount of risk on a weather prediction map.


20 posted on 04/26/2009 7:34:58 PM PDT by TheConservativeParty ("Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force." George Washington)
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To: janetjanet998

We had a very rare high risk area over us a couple of weeks ago. (far north GA) Needless to say, I did not relish the thought. I moved here from Oklahoma, and have had enough already to last me. But, these little mountains weakened and broke it up for us. Thanks to God for building them.


21 posted on 04/26/2009 8:36:15 PM PDT by kenth
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To: presently no screen name
What’s the weather in Ohio for the next two days? My son is driving there today and should be leaving on Tuesday. Just a concerned parent. Thanks.

Sorry I missed your message until this afternoon! It's sunny, hot, and breezy today, with showers or thunderstorms moving through tonight and tomorrow morning. We are not expecting severe weather.

I hope your boy has a safe trip.

22 posted on 04/27/2009 11:51:49 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (And he whispered, "Look behind you! Remember that you are but a man!")
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To: TonyInOhio

He’s on the road now driving alone towards Ohio. His first time driving a 24 foot truck. Will be staying in Ohio for 2 days. Won’t rest till he gets home. I pray all will be well. Thank you!


23 posted on 04/27/2009 12:10:47 PM PDT by presently no screen name
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