Posted on 04/26/2009 11:51:56 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
As reports of a unique form of swine flu erupt around the world, the inevitable question arises: Is this the big one?
Is this the next big global flu epidemic that public health experts have long anticipated and worried about? Is this the novel virus that will kill millions around the world, as pandemics did in 1918, 1957 and 1968?
The short answer is it's too soon to tell.
"What makes this so difficult is we may be somewhere between an important but yet still uneventful public health occurrence here — with something that could literally die out over the next couple of weeks and never show up again — or this could be the opening act of a full-fledged influenza pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, a prominent expert on global flu outbreaks with the University of Minnesota.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Will the author be disappointed if if fizzles?
Probably depends on if he’s touched by it, just like all the other elitists.
#1 Many people are beginning to suspect this is a manufactured virus
#2 I’ve read one site that says this virus is the same or similar to the 1918 virus
#3 What about our food supply? We have many imported foods in the produce section of grocery stores, particularly from Mexico.
There is something strange about it being in Mexico and the Obama visit there at the same time. I think I am in a “wait and see” mode on his health. If he is sick all bets are off.
The prospect of dying of swine flu tends to make me less skeptical of karma.
If manmade, possibly could fizzle rather quickly. The DNA science is not yet up to good old evolution in the wild.
ex-Texan is one freeper who suggests we lay in a goodly supply of foil against this one, but funny he put it in email to me rather than post to all. I can’t comment because I don’t know whose contradictory account (H1? H5?) is correct.
Food supply, may be more in trouble from Mexicans getting too sick to work harvests than from viruses borne on produce.
Bookmark
Will O’dumbo the manchild slacker psoing as POTUS now have to stay in the WH and not take his daily Air Force one trips? He will go crazy. He might have to actually work for a change.
If it is like the 1918 flu, very strong immune systems would seem to be a problem; immune system overreaction is what has been hypothesized to have caused the deaths of so many young people back then.
In the U.S. so far, we haven't seen this type of response (that we know of).
Perhaps Mexico today is more like our country was in 1918...people were exposed to all kinds of dirt, garbage, water contamination when they were children, thus creating very strong immune systems.
We've seen an increase in asthma and allergies here, which has been explained by some as being due to our obsession with antibacterials and hyper-cleanliness. Perhaps the fact that our immune systems are not as strong is a good thing in this case?
As I posted on another thread:
I am thinking that there are some very official type officials who are wanting everyone to be scared crapless of something other than GOVERNMENT for a while, and remember instead that GOVERNMENT is the SAVIOR of all.
Thats what I think.
I feel pretty good.
1918 had another factor: war.
Three million draft call-ups, massive crowding in transportation, training facilities, troop ships, bond rallies, etc.
Plus the stress on resources, including medical that war brings, and in dividing the nations attention and forcing a cold decision: react to epidemic or make war.
Hmm. Wonder if for this very reason the US, Canada, and Japan will weather this flu rather well, but the rest of the world get decimated?
It’s been a long time since we’ve had a serious outbreak, at least in the developed world. Many probably think it can’t happen again - although if history is a guide it most certainly will sooner or later.
I know that well. Hundreds died just a few miles from my doorstep at Camp Dodge, in Iowa. Otherwise healthy young men and women. Oddly, according to one account the guys who had just arrived from Alaska were particularly hard hit.
Also, my Grandma’s cousin Mary went off to France as a nurse, survived the war, and died of the flu at the age of 23 after she had returned home.
http://www.iptv.org/IowaPathways/mypath.cfm?ounid=ob_000279
Thanks for the link, very interesting.
One theory has it that the flu started at a military base in US, traveled overseas with troops, mutated there, and came back here to be the killer in the fall.
That is why the Mexicans on the street call it the Obama Flu. Why have they been so QUICK to say it was NOT bioterrorism. I know here in Mexico MANY that are in rural areas that already had the sniffles, the head ache, the plegm, and in 2 or 3 days are back to work. They don’t have clinics or microscopes to know what STRAIN of flu it was, and we’re all back up and running. It’s a HOAX..never miss an opportunity that a crisis affords.
Swine flu (H1N1 virus) is a variant / mutant of avian flu (H1N5 virus) which, according to medical and world governments' "experts", was supposed to wipe out quarter to half the world's population... and after costing taxpayers billions of dollars to buy vaccines that nobody used, fizzled out quite nicely due to awareness and changes in hygienic behavior and precautions.
In other words, go long pharmaceuticals and short airlines... and no, it's definitely not a financial advice, only a reflection of what happened in the past with avian flu "pandemic" and what's likely to happen with this swine flu "pandemic".
So get ready for onslaught of political blowhards on the subject. If only we had a vaccine against them!
Me too, especially since they’re trying to push through Katherine Sebellius confirmation this week. How can we have a pandemic w/out a Health and Human Services Secretary???...Never waste a crisis!
(H1N5 virus) = (H5N1 virus) = avian (”bird”) flu.
...but they have not mentioned avian once.
They did mention that this is a strain never seen before but DON"T mention avian once.
Does this strain have a avian strain in it????
Last time (1976) they tried a vaccine against swine flu it worked out real well for them. /sarcasm
I am most concerned because it is striking the Generation Yners hardest, and they are the ones who simply Will Not Be Told What To Do. A university in the Maritimes had an outbreak of mumps, and stupidly sent all the students home so they could spread this thrughout the country. The exposed students here in the GTA refused to be quarantined and went clubbing, spreading their germs everywhere.
The only way this thing will be taken seriously is if it starts infecting children.
P.S. Canada should be removed from the list of countries that will weather the epidemic successfully. We saw what happened with SARS in 2003. Their way of dealing with emergencies is to pretend that nothing is happening until 40 people are dead and WHO imposes a travel ban.
I, for one, will be absolutely delighted if it fizzles.
H1N1 is essentially a very similar but weaker strain than deadly H5N1 virus. Think of it as different (mutated) strain of seasonal influenza, which is why flu (vaccine) shots are usually so ineffective.
Yes, it has an avian flu gene in it.
The local media is in hysterics over SWINE FLU here in New England this morning...OMG!!! By the way...number of cases found in New England to date? Zero.
... Only young Lewis died from the swine flu itself in 1976. But as the critics are quick to point out, hundreds of Americans were killed or seriously injured by the inoculation the government gave them to stave off the virus.
I’m an ER doc, can I phone it in too?
I’m really leary of vaccines. Not that I haven’t had my share in my life. But I have MS and the last vaccine I had (pneumonia vaccine) sent me into a tailspin. I had the Hep B vaccine about 6 months before I had my first symptoms of MS, and the Hep A vaccine which I took because we were traveling to the Far East made me really sick. (all anecdotal evidence that vaccines don’t like me, nor I them, LOL) I never get the flu vaccine, and I haven’t had the flu in the last 20 years. Most vaccines for adults still contain thimerisol (sp?) and so I’d be inclined to say, “No thanks!”
Influenza A (the regular kind) is a killer. There are tens of thousands of deaths, every year, caused by the flu.
But those tens of thousands of deaths represent a low case-fatality ratio with millions of cases.
In Mexico, there are probably hundreds dead (they acknowledge 68). And of course, there is no Mexican CDC and most sick people don't see a doctor, much less have molecular testing for Influenza A.
But we know already that the few "international" cases all went to Mexico, and all were in widely separated parts of the country. The NYC kids went to Cancun. There's lots of known disease in Mexico City. There's cases in Mexicali.
This fits the picture of rapid spread, high infectivity, and low mortality.
Which I hope is correct.
The defense is that the first confirmed case was April 16th. Do not let that argument stand. Every presidential visit is preceded by a team of people who are prepping and planning the visit. I would assume it would be an extensive security sweep and preparation for any emergency to include securing and prepping a hospital or two in the event of an emergency. Would he do it? Yes he can!
1:) This could be a very small outbreak that is over reported to allow more control of the population.
2:)If you remember the history of the 1918 flu, it mutated after the first pass around the globe and killed more people on the second pass. Back then borders were relatively closed and transportation was mostly by trains and ships.
3:)You are still buying produce in the grocery? Get that garden started and live on beans and cornbread until it comes in!
If you don't....it isn't.
The Obamites will do everything they can to scare people, then they will come in as "Saviours" with more government control to take away even more of our freedoms.
“The Obamites will do everything they can to scare people, then they will come in as “Saviours” with more government control to take away even more of our freedoms.”
That’s the first thing I thought of when they immediately went into high alert about this.
I’m glad there are some folks here who remember the last swine flu SCARE. I remember how goofy and panicky folks got about it. Turned out to be a whole lot of nothing. I never got sick...never knew anyone who did and my folks (who were in the high risk category) never did either.
Is swine flu ‘the big one’ or a flu that fizzles?
I feel pretty good.
“It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine”
In 1918, the flu hit in the Spring and then fizzled out. When it hit again in the fall/winter, millions were killed. The median lifespan in the US went from 54 to 39.
Those who contracted the flu in the spring were not hit as hard in the Fall. Luckily, we have vaccines and anti-virul drugs today.
The meat eaters survived the 1918 flu in larger numbers, they think because their protein counts were higher. I keep a large tub of protein powder around. If the flu does spread into my area I plan on protein powder, one clove of garlic and one or two large glasses of juice from my juicer a day.
>>Thats what I think.<<
Me too.
Lots of Vitamin D
If people would simply take steps to improve their immune systems, this would be a fizzle. Eat yogurt with lots of acidophillus. Flu get killed in the gut. Eliminate the waste efficiently and no problems.
Have you read the reports that it is the second strike that kills?
I need a lot more information to know how serious it is.
If all sorts of community events are canceled it will add to the problems of the Mexican economy, I think, you too?
You aim it at everyone coming in from Mexico, purely non-invasive testing. Everyone over 100 degrees gets throat/mouthy swabbed and cultured for the virus and contact information established.
Many would be unaware of mild temp increases, this would keep everyone warned and tracked and treated.
The Japanese are doing this right now.
Homeland Security and the CDC is way behind the ball on this.
Good clear explanation of earlier contact possible.
Thanks!
Another good reason for a garden!
I just put in two more 75 foot rows of Okra! The pinto beans(Walmart bag beans!) will go in on May 1st since we’ve never had good luck with them early. We have 300 feet of corn in four rows, five rows of assorted squash, two rows of cukes, 31 tomato plants, 100 each of broccoli and cabbage. I’ve also got some eary turnips in along with radishes and beets. Once the corn is picked toward late August, we will set collards in that section for some late fall greenery, along with more turnips and mustard.
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