Posted on 04/28/2009 1:48:19 PM PDT by GOPGuide
A new poll gives Terry McAuliffe a double digit lead over Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds, his Democratic rivals for Governor.
But a majority of likely Democratic voters who responded to the News7 SurveyUSA poll say they may still change their mind.
But the bad news for all of the Democrats, Republican Bob McDonnell leads each of them in general election match-ups, though Deeds is closest with a difference of five percentage points.
Here is a look at the results:
Asked of 409 likely Democratic primary voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.9%
If the Democratic Primary for Virginia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Creigh Deeds? Terry McAuliffe? Or Brian Moran?
22% Deeds 38% McAuliffe 22% Moran 18% Other / Undecided
Asked of 1396 registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.7%
Regardless of what you told us about the June 9th primary, thinking ahead now to the GENERAL election in November... If the only two names on the ballot for Governor of Virginia were Republican Bob McDonnell and ... Democrat Creigh Deeds, who would you vote for?
44% McDonnell (R) 39% Deeds (D) 17% Undecided
Asked of 1396 registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.7%
What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Bob McDonnell and Democrat Terry McAuliffe?
46% McDonnell (R) 39% McAuliffe (D) 15% Undecided
Asked of 1396 registered voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.7%
What if it was Bob McDonnell against Democrat Brian Moran?
46% McDonnell (R) 34% Moran (D) 19% Undecided
The three Democrats are debating at the Institute for Advanced Learning and Research in Danville Tuesday night. There's just six weeks until the June 9 primary.
News7's Joe Dashiell will have highlights from the debate in Danville on News7 at 10 & 11.
I can’t support Christie at all, he’s as bad as the last Governor with that name. The man is another cog in the liberal RINO machine that is killing the NJ GOP at warp speed. An apologist for illegals. He’ll be a predictable disaster as Governor.
The demographics of VA are chainging. When Kerry won Fairfax County in 2004, the first Dem to do that in 40 years, it was a harbinger of things to come. One third of the state's population now lives NoVa and it is becoming heavily Democrat. 27% of Fairfax County is foreign born. 20% of the state population is black, Asian 4.7% and Hispanic 6.3%.
Many of us conservatives are very upset with the Rep elites pushing Jeff Frederick out as a party chairman after we, the grassroots elected him at last year's convention. I expect a big food fight at this year's convention at the end of the month. A number of us are considering possible alternatives to express our dissatisfaction with the party. McDonnell is part of the problem and the one who institigated Jeff's removal. I know that many of us will not vote for him, preferring to leave the office blank. It was hard enough to hold our noses to vote for McCain. This time we are not going to be suckered into voting for RINOs.
The only reason I support Christie is because he’s probably the only Repub who could win. Ocean County would vote for a true conservative, but the rest of the State will want a moderate. While I don’t agree with him on some issues, I do agree with his call for fiscal restraint, smaller government and lower income and property taxes. Plus he’s a great debater (he’s a litergator) who will shred Corzine when they meet. Basically I support anyone who has a credible chance to beat Corzine.
We had a conversation prior to the 2008 election where I said that Obama would win VA given his strong grassroot organization [and money] that set up offices in 62 VA counties compared to McCain's 10. This is going to be a very, very tough race for the Reps to win. It is possible, but make no mistake about it, we are the underdogs.
Government check recipients (both "pay" checks and welfare checks) are now the majority in VA.That officially makes them a RAT state.So of course they'd nominate a scumbag like McAullife.Just think Barney Frank and Ted Kennedy if you need help understanding.Today's RAT "true believers"...which are the ones who donate and vote in primaries...are utterly amoral.It's that simple.
“I cannot believe VA Democrats would be that moronic to nominate the toxic McAuliffe.”
I wish I had the ability to disbelieve anything these clowns could do...there is nothing impossible fo them to do no matter how far fetched or stupid...
The only thing you’ll get with Christie is a Massachusetts-style GOP (in other words, a totally dead party). Liberal Republicans are less than useless (reference Arlen Specter and the Maine Twins).
I disagree on one point, it’s ours to lose. No polling data I’ve seen shows McDonnell losing this race. Even in rodent-leaning states, we often have an easier time winning Governorships than federal races (and vice-versa with Dems winning heavily GOP states). It’s odd, but it’s true.
McDonnell is not that strong a candidate. He reminds me a lot of Kilgore. What I have seen and heard at various Rep functions that had McDonnell as a speaker are not encouraging. He is trying to be more of a moderate Republican hoping to cut into the Dems stronghold in NoVA. He is weak on immigration issues. He sided with the elites of the party on removing Jeff Frederick, which has angered many of us conservatives. We are holding rump meetings now to develop a strategy for the convention to show our displeasure. Many, including myself, will probably not vote for him. There is talk of a third party conservative candidate running. This would drain votes from McDonnell.
We have lost the governorship the last two times. During that period the Dems have taken over the Senate and we are holding on barely to the House of Delegates. The state is definitely shifting from red to blue.
I can't emphasize enough the role demographics is playing. For example, in Fairfax County where I live the population increased from 818,584 in 1990 to 1,006,576 in 2007. In 1990, whites were 665,399; blacks 63,325, Asians 69,338, and Hispanics 51,874. In 2007, whites were 681,130 ; blacks 93,658, Asians 158,666; and Hispanics 133,548.
As you can see, the 25% increase in population was essentially minorities. Blacks increased by 50%, Asians by more than 100%, and Hispanics almost tripled. The number of whites remained essentially the same. 278,498 or 27.7% of the county's population is foreign born. Similar changes are being experienced in neighboring counties.
I think we're seeing a pattern. The Dems have a problem that they don't have a first-tier candidate right off the bat. We do.
"McDonnell is not that strong a candidate. He reminds me a lot of Kilgore. What I have seen and heard at various Rep functions that had McDonnell as a speaker are not encouraging. He is trying to be more of a moderate Republican hoping to cut into the Dems stronghold in NoVA. He is weak on immigration issues."
I doubt he's anything like Chris Christie.
"He sided with the elites of the party on removing Jeff Frederick, which has angered many of us conservatives."
I've heard differing accounts on the removal of Frederick, the least of which had to do with ideology and more to do with competence. I've seen lots of folks that are decent Conservatives, but only a rare few are fit to serve in an outright leadership capacity.
"We are holding rump meetings now to develop a strategy for the convention to show our displeasure. Many, including myself, will probably not vote for him. There is talk of a third party conservative candidate running. This would drain votes from McDonnell."
I'm going to tell you straight out that if you do this something like that, and McDonnell loses by a narrow margin, you will guarantee the VA GOP becomes the minority party for the forseeable future. I'm trusting you aren't that petty and vindictive. We need a GOP Governor there to preside over redistricting. You get a Governor McAuliffe in there and a narrow Dem majority in 2011, and you'll be lucky to squeeze 2 or 3 House seats and maybe 1/3rd of the legislature after 2012. Is that what you want ?
"We have lost the governorship the last two times. During that period the Dems have taken over the Senate and we are holding on barely to the House of Delegates."
We lost the Governorship three times during the '80s and early '90s (1981, 1985, 1989).
As for the demographics, the GOP better start to do what it should've been doing all along, aggressively selling our policies to non-Whites. Putting all your eggs in one racial basket can be a recipe for disaster in a state that ain't all White.
Did you want to comment on this thread and post #29 ?
Well, not really, but I will take a stab at this...
"We are holding rump meetings now to develop a strategy for the convention to show our displeasure. Many, including myself, will probably not vote for him. There is talk of a third party conservative candidate running. This would drain votes from McDonnell."
This has to be the most stupidest, head-up-the-buttedness, moronic idea I've heard.
YES, the whole Frederick Affair disgusted me. It was mishandled from the get go. But Frederick is also a buffoon.
If he, or his followers try to upset the convention they will indeed doom Virginia to another four years. But this time it will be Terry McAuliffe who wins. Because Terry-Mac is going to buy the nomination. It's that simple.
So, if in all your ideological pureness you can stand the thoughts of Governor McAuliffe and daily visits from Bill Clinton, Paul Begala and James Carville, and if you want to validate the legacy of the Eyebrow ...then go ahead and stage your little hissy-fit.
McDonnell is not perfect. I am not incredibly enthusiastic about him or his candidacy. But is hs mostly solid on the issues.
But this is bigger than petty disagreements and intra-party squabbles.
I.can’t.take.it.anymore. All of them are as stupid as a box of rocks.
If McDonnell fails to look at the Tea Parties and what they really mean, then he deserves to lose.
>I can’t wait for the carpetbagger from Rochester, NY to debate McDonnell. Go Bob!!!<
Be very, very careful with the “carpetbagger from New York” message. That’s one of the mistakes that got Virgil Goode, one of Congress’ most conservative members, ousted by the unknown Tom Perriello this past November. Goode kept hammering home that Perriello was a “New York lawyer”, which was debunked by Perriello’s parents, speaking out with obvious Virginia accents.
Yeah, but McAuliffe has already stuck his foot in his mouth with a being from the “real New York.”
Thank you. Well put.
It sorta struck a nerve.
I have been intimately involved with this issue. It had more to do with ideology than anything else. As a delegate to last year's RPV Convention, I was among the 60% of the voters who elected Jeff to be the new chairman, the first such chairman in 12 years to win election at a convention and the first in 16 years to win a contested convention.
This is clearly a putsch by the fossilized elites of the party who are trying to regain power using trumped up charges and less than democratic means to do so. Clearly, Jeff Frederick and people like him represent the future of this party. He is energetic, tech savvy, and committed to Conservative values and principles. This is about the grassroots versus the elites.
I'm going to tell you straight out that if you do this something like that, and McDonnell loses by a narrow margin, you will guarantee the VA GOP becomes the minority party for the forseeable future. I'm trusting you aren't that petty and vindictive. We need a GOP Governor there to preside over redistricting. You get a Governor McAuliffe in there and a narrow Dem majority in 2011, and you'll be lucky to squeeze 2 or 3 House seats and maybe 1/3rd of the legislature after 2012. Is that what you want ?
You have to be willing to lose in order to win. I heard this same BS about the need to support McCain. I did and I regret it. I worked the phones, handed out sample ballots at early voting and on election day. I contributed money. Never again will I support a RINO using such fallacious reasoning. If the Reps continue to just be another wing of the Dem party, it won't matter who is governor.
As for the demographics, the GOP better start to do what it should've been doing all along, aggressively selling our policies to non-Whites. Putting all your eggs in one racial basket can be a recipe for disaster in a state that ain't all White.
More moderate Rep garbage. There is no special appeal to minorities unless you want to imitate the Democrats and adopt their policies. Our appeal needs to be universal, not one taliored to playing identity politics. Reps must be willing to take a principled stand on issues even if it means polarization, being the object of demagoguery, and short-term losses. Unless Republicans redefine the battlefield and terms of engagement, they will continue to lose the war.
The Republican Party has failed miserably to counter the Democrat political strategy on the issue of immigration. They have been cowed and intimidated fearing that unless they adapt to the new demographic reality forged by mass immigration over the past 45 years, the GOP will become politically irrelevant and powerless. These fears resulted in the nomination of Presidential candidate John McCain, a self-described maverick who supported amnesty and pandered to extremist groups like the National Council of La Raza (The Race). On the issue of immigration, the American people were offered an echo, not a choice in 2008 with both Obama and McCain holding the same views.
FYI: In 2008, if John McCain had received 60 percent [vice 55 percent] of the white vote, he would have won even if Barack Obama had received the entire Hispanic vote. Credible surveys indicate that the major policy concerns of Hispanics/Latinos were no different than the concerns of non-Hispanics/Latinos. The economy and jobs topped the list.
There is little evidence that immigration policy was an influential factor in Hispanics’/Latinos’ choice between the two candidates once basic party predispositions are taken into account. The size of the Latino voting population should be kept in perspective alongside other subsets of the electorate. An estimated 11.8 million voters were of Latino ancestry, compared with 17 million African Americans, 19.7 million veterans, 23.6 million young people, 45 million conservatives, and 34 million born-again white Christians.
FYI:
“Goode kept hammering home that Perriello was a “New York lawyer”, which was debunked by Perriello’s parents, speaking out with obvious Virginia accents.”
Terry McCauliffe is an anti - 2nd Amendment big government tax and spend liberal from upstate New York who has already publicly discussed his roots. Nothing he can hide here. But the real issues will be McCauliffe’s support for restrictions on the 2nd Amendment, higher taxes, out of control spending and his irrational exuberant support for Obama’s big government plans.
>the real issues will be McCauliffe’s support for restrictions on the 2nd Amendment, higher taxes, out of control spending and his irrational exuberant support for Obama’s big government plans.<
Isn’t that the truth!
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