Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Republicans Top Democrats on Generic Congressional Ballot (R-41%, D-38%)
Posted on 04/28/2009 3:48:54 PM PDT by GOPGuide
For just the second time in more than five years of daily or weekly tracking, Republicans now lead Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% would vote for their districts Republican candidate while 38% would choose the Democrat. Thirty-one percent (31%) of conservative Democrats said they would vote for their districts Republican candidate.
Overall, the GOP gained two points this week, while the Democrats lost a point in support. Still, its important to note that the GOPs improved position comes primarily from falling Democratic support. Democrats are currently at their lowest level of support in the past year while Republicans are at the high water mark.
Over the past year, Democratic support has ranged from a low of 38% to a high of 50%. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.
During calendar 2009, Democratic support has ranged from 38% to 42% and the Republican range has been from 35% to 41%.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates also available on Twitter.
Democrats began the year holding a six- or seven-point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. That began to slip in early February and the Republicans actually took a two-point lead for a single week in the middle of March. Since then, the results have ranged from dead even to a four point lead for the Democrats.
Men now favor the GOP by a 45% to 34% margin. Women prefer the Democrats by a 42% to 38% margin.
Other recent polling shows 50% believe the high reelection rates result from election rules that are rigged to benefit members of Congress.
LOL! I see history is about to repeat itself. Jeffords jumped ship and then the GOP took a commanding lead in the Senate. Enjoy your minority status when the GOP takes over in 2010, Specter....................assuming you’re even in the Senate after that election.
And despite a 7% approval rating, 97% of congressmen were re-elected.
In short, any poll grouping Congress together is pointless.
“Overall, the GOP gained two points this week, while the Democrats lost a point in support. Still, its important to note that the GOPs improved position comes primarily from falling Democratic support. Democrats are currently at their lowest level of support in the past year while Republicans are at the high water mark.”
The American people are getting a big taste of liberalism. I guess they don’t like it much. Can you imagine what this will look like once Mr Obama’s policies really kick in. Even the media won’t be able to cover for the assclown. People know if they have a job or not, money in their checking account, retirement account and a roof over their head.
“The problem is when the generic gets replaced with an actual politician.”
Bingo. Generic polls almost always favor the party out of power. Match up actual candidates and things tend to change. The power of incumbency is incredible.
[The House is quite possible but, at the moment, still unlikely. ]
The real crapola hasn’t even hit the fan yet. TARP fraud, SS insolvency, double digit inflation, the collapse of Iraq and/or Pakistan, China dumping dollars, Israel bombing Iran, GMs collapse, high unemployment, commercial real estate collapse, etc. etc. Most of these things have a good chance of happening before the elections in 2010. I don’t envy the Stumble Bum In Chief’s political future when all this hits.
So what percent of total Dimocrats is that?
I sure hope the GOP learns from this. This isn’t because we have become more “moderate” it is because Obama is scaring the bejesus out of America. Many thought they were electing a moderate and now they are seeing him in a different light and seeing the idea that the Democrats now have complete control of the government as a huge mistake. I sure hope the GOP can see the writing on this wall because now is not the time to gather in a circle and sing kumbya with Democrats. The Democrats don’t need the GOP and the GOP should hammer them and let them drown in their own quagmire of socialist radical leftist filth.
Specter was going to lose the primaries anyway. He has no effect whatsoever on how Republicans do in any elections. Losing scum like Specter actually may actually increase the chances of Republicans in the next elections, Specter was like a 5th columnist and enemy agent in the Republican Party.
You have your own futuristic secret polls showing the RATS in the lead in 2 year’s time?
Why do you assume that when there are no reasons to think the economy should prosper from the rats' attempts to stimulate it, or to think Obama won't have disasters in foreign affairs?
Republicans were seriously behind in the in the generic polls for congress in 2008, and proceeded to lose a big number of seats.
Right now, Republicans are steadily increasing their lead over the RATS in the generic congress polls, ergo Republicans win the House at least in 2010 if this continues.
“this poll means crapola.”
2nd time in 5 years, is not crap. Sorry.
You'd be surprised buddy.
Much higher than that.
It's not all Democrats who are wild eyed, loony left Marxist vermin like Comrade Obunga, Olberman, and Gerafalo. Most Dems are normal ordinary Americas, who no more want another Marxist Soviet Union in America, than the average Republicans does.
“Thats funny because Juan Williams on FOX Report just said the GOP is dead. Dems supposedly have a 20 point generic ballot lead in (the bogus) ABC poll.
He said this with a straight face.”
It’s the lame stream media and liberal apologists substituting for legitimate evaluation that’s DEAD.
Why is the press saying the opposite? That the Pubbies are polling lowest in their history?
It will go up again with the clarity we’ll get from no longer having to ‘splain erratic Uncle Arlen.
Not wrong. I never said anything about generic polls. I spoke only about approval ratings which should, if generic polls really matter, have meant incumbents were in huge trouble.
The fact is, Republicans were also behind in the individual polls of the races they lost, and only individual polls matter. These generic polls as well as approval polls don’t mean squat. Each race is decided only in their district. And until the individual district polls show people dissatisfied with their congressman, we’re delusional if we think this kind of poll matters.
Might be an opportunity for conservatives to take back their local governments from liberals.
All you conservatives looking for a way to change the direction of the country, consider running for your local government council seat. It’s not expensive, especially in rural communities. It involves handing out flyers, knocking on doors and shaking hands.
Local governments are where tomorow’s political leaders will rise. Plus, taking back local governments will give conservatives a political base from which to harass, sabotage and fight the criminals in DC.
We need a leader. It is not enough to wait for the Democrats to cut their own throats (though they are doing that even faster than I expected), we need to articulate our own plans. For one, how about more nuclear plants as an alternative to carbon taxes? How about a health plan that does not destroy the private health care sector. How about a foreign policy that supports loyal allies and panders less to repressionist regimes like Iran and Cuba? How about some real border security to insure what jobs still exist in this economy go to citizens?
I do not have the skills of a political leader, but I could certainly support someone who has those skills and articulates Conservatism as it ought to be done. I think I would be an effective supporter, and that millions more like me would join and be even more effective. Right now we are a movement in search of a leader. We need to find this person. Someone who can go above the head of the press like Reagan did. Someone unafraid to say the Federal Government must do less, not more. Someone who is willing to stand up and defend capitalism and free markets instead of using them as scapegoats. Someone who is willing to say the fault for Islamic fundamentalism lies not with the West, but with the Islamic nations and peoples who have tolerated and even encouraged them for the last 60 years (or maybe 1200 years). Someone who is willing to point out that the solution to Islamic Fundamentalism lies with those same governments and peoples who created it and who is willing to impose the pressure to make them live up to their duties. Someone who is unashamed to hold conservative social views: who will stand up and defend marriage, who will say drug use is wrong and harmful, who will espouse Freedom of Religion rather than freedom from religion, and who can effectively value innocent human life while supporting an effective death penalty for the guilty.
Who is this leader? I used to think it was Newt, but he is becoming a bit of a Moonbeam. Fred Thompson is that leader in thought and articulation, but seems to lack the desire. I like my governor, Mark Sanford, but I know he lacks the political skills to sell our message. Sarah Palin has been borked, as so many other budding Conservative leaders. I like Senator Inhoffe, but I have grown tired of senators. Who is left?
Please tell me who has the potential to be our new leader? He or she may be in Congress or a governorship somewhere, or may be running one of the banks that survived the credit scare without taking Federal Money.
Who will lead?
PS: My apologies to my fellow Freepers. This was supposed to be a single sentence post, but it became a rant. That happens sometimes!
More like the 2nd time in 3 months.
I don't know. There are two things that are significantly different now. In the '90's we were in the midst of a economic boom. Also, Clinton's term was pre-9/11. Those two events have changed our circumstances. People want competence and leadership, which Bush provided for a while after 9/11, but which seemed to vanish as his term went on. Bush had a knack for looking inept. The Kenyan was able to sell himself as the harbringer of "change," i.e. as a restorer of competence. But people wanted to get rid of the ineptitude, they didn't want to get rid of conservative values. Zero, with his "Hahvahd" law degree and fresh face, was able to sell himself as the smart, cool guy who would get us out of our difficulties.
I think that image is starting to fall away fast. Zero was always essentially empty, but people just didn't see it. Add in a fawning press, and it was almost impossible to get the word out about him. It's now becoming clear that Obama isn't cool, he's cold hearted. He is a master of affronts and insults--the gift to the British PM, returning the bust of Churchill, bowing to the Saudi king, chumming with Chavez, insulting the country whenever he's abroad, covering over the IHS at Georgetown, speaking at Notre Dame, releasing the CIA interrogation memos, etc., etc. His essential anti-Americanism is showing. Add to that the corruption of his subordinates (taxcheats running the IRS, etc.) and little capers like yesterday's buzzing of lower Manhattan with a 747, and the impression of competence is going to vanish soon enough. So I think that Zero is going to have a much tougher time pulling a Clintonian come-back. And don't forget what sparked Clinton's comeback: it was the Oklahoma City bombing. Is there any scenario in which a terrorist attack would help Obama and the dems? I don't see it.
I have been advocating an approach entitled "pick the low hanging fruit" for 2010. Focus $$ and attention on conservative (or leaning conservative) congressional districts that are now held by Democrats.
At the very least, a bunch of Blue Dogs will get nervous, leading to the death of cap and trade and other boondoggles.
Another positive outcome is that you're adding to the conservative base, instead of moderate RINOs.
OK, 2nd time in 3 months, and 2nd time in 5+ years. Hopefully trending in the right direction.
I’d say so.
Don’t tell the media or the Democrats that the tea parties have something to do with this. Let them continue to ignore them, and pretend they are a small and meaningless movement. They caught people’s attention and forced them to pause and think about what is happening in this country.
Republicans need to wage the argument that Obama and the Democrat’s irresponsible spending is mortgaging their children and grandchildren’s future. It is enslaving them. Repeat over and over and pound the message home. IT IS A WINNING MESSAGE!
It is especially a winning message with women! It turns fiscal repsonsibility into an emotional issue which is a winner with women.
IT’S ABOUT THE CHILDREN!!
You just did..again.
Make up your mind already.
Are you speaking about generic pols or you are not speaking about generic polls?
Of course generic congressional polls mean a heck of a lot more than “squat” as you put keep putting it. When republicans are behind in generic congressional pols, they lose seats in the congressional elections. When they are ahead in the generic congressional polls, the GAIN seats. It's that simple.
“Each race is decided only in their district”
It's the very individual district polls that contribute to one party being ahead or behind in the generic polls. They are linked to each other. You can't have a situation where one party is ahead in the generic poll, and behind in more districts than the other party in the individual districts. It's funny how you guys tout the generic polls when you are head, but then poo poo the same generuc polls when you fall behind
Generics are one thing, but when you have to run actual candidates, it becomes something else entirely.
All recent congressional elections have gone to the party that has had the lead in the generic polls.
You can't be in the lead in the overall generic polls, if you are behind in more districts than the other party. It doesn't work that way.
Republicans were behind in the generic poll last year, and we lost in the real elections as well. It's good sign we are ahead in the generic polls right now. What we have to do is make sure we hold Obunga s feet to hot fire, for his insane policies, so we can can increase our lead in the polls and hold on till the next elections.
I made the comment because we’ve got two problems at the current time that tend to make the generic polls not so reassuring. One being our lackluster recruitment and targets and the fact we’re going to be at a decided disadvantage with respect to individual race funding. We may do better in the House, but I think we may lose seats in the Senate. We just aren’t targeting many of those seats and some of those Dems aren’t particularly vulnerable.
If 2010 ends up being like 1978 (Carter’s midterm), our gains were rather underwhelming (+3 in the Senate, +15 in the House). We’d be lucky to gain those 3 in the Senate.
It matters not to me from what demographic the bimbos come from. And it gives me no comfort that married women tend to vote pubbie. Married women—and men—are a shrinking demographic in America and the world. Also, I’d like to know why married women felt compelled to take their young daughters to Monica Lewinsky book signings.
This tells me that married people are doing a lousy job of passing on their values to their children. And you know why? Too many marriages consist of two working parents. Being “too busy”, they simply “out source” their responsibilities to the left-coopted education system in this country.
My wife and I worked our entire married life, but never gave up any of our parental responsibilites. We inculcated our values to our children and we dang well knew what they were keeping in their rooms and what they were being taught in school. The TV was never on during the week unless there was an edcuational purpose to the program. Heck, we had only one TV in our house until 1976 and it was a 12” black and white hand-me-down. The kids read books if they finished their homework.
And to keep their little hands and minds busy every one of my four boys participated in sports. None of them were premiere athletes, but that didn’t matter. They learned to compete to the best of their ability. Just as importantly, it severly limited the amount of time they had to get into mischief.
Oh, if any one of them tried the old “I’m bored” ploy, they very quickly found themselves engaged in an activity not of their liking. But they couldn’t say they were bored.
The same pollsters who do tehse generic polls are saying in the media that the GOP has essentially zero chance of taking back Congress next year. Something doesn’t compute.
Not from this pollster they aren't.
And Rasmussen has a much better record than almost all of them.
I wouldn't worry too much about what the Obamabot media have to say on anything if I were you. They'd swear black is white, to suck up to Comrade Obunga. If Republicans continue to poll ahead of the RATS in the rasmmusen generic congress polls till 2010, the Dems will lose the House at the very least.
Wrong. In fact if you look back over the years you will find the Democrats almost always lead in the generic vote.