No idea...
Posted on 04/30/2009 9:43:31 AM PDT by anniegetyourgun
If you'd asked 20 years ago the question he's heard over and over -- whether humanity will discover extraterrestrial intelligence in his lifetime -- Frank Drake would have shrugged and said, "sure."
Today, the renowned astronomer, who turns 79 next month, admits the chances are slimming.
"It's going to be a close call," he said.
But even if Drake, professor emeritus of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of California at Santa Cruz, doesn't see the day we learn we're not alone, he knows it's coming. To him, it's a mathematical inevitability.
He should know. He wrote the formula. And in a decade when scientists are discovering more extraterrestrial oceans, far away solar systems and Earth-like masses around the galaxy, it's being taken more seriously than ever before
(Excerpt) Read more at seattlepi.com ...
frell, frell, frack!
Frank’s my neighbor! He’s a very cool guy, and extremely intelligent.
Ping.
I would say this is a given considering the astronomical number number of galaxies. Whether one is close enough for visitation is another matter. Highly unlikely.
Bookmark
Farscape and Battlestar.
Why do they all have to begin "F"?
Really? Thats neat!
One of my favorite equations is the Drake equation.
mathematical inevitability just like the lottery.
I’m still looking for intelligent life on earth...
Please shake his hand for me.
N=R*fp* ne* fl *fi *fc *fl
Where
N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible
R is the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy
fp is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life
fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves
fc is the fraction that communicates
fl is the fraction of the planet’s life during which the communicating civilizations live
This serious looking equation is JUNK SCIENCE. The problem is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill it in with guesses. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from “Billions and billions” to zero. An expression that can mean anything means NOTHING! The Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. It is religion.
But it did lay the groundwork for the religion of Global Warming.
Yup. Obama's gotta be from another world. I believe it's called "Kum Baya".
Too many zeros after the decimal before the first significant digit.
You beat me to it.
Is that how we’re explaining the new President?
No idea...
Seth Shostak and the Allen Array is on the doorstep of detecting an artificial radio signal from “out there”. Just stay tuned.
Please consider the following: The Universe (as we suspect) is approximately 14 BILLION years old. Human beings appeared no more than a BLINK ago! The Universe is anticipated to last for TRILLIONS of years more and may eventually just revert to a cold lifeless space. Humans live for approximately 75 years at best. There is NO WAY humans will EVER exist here for another 10,000 years. We probably will be lucky to exist for another 1,000 years. So what's the point of even existing? It's useless. We have absolutely NO IDEA why we are here; why we exist; where we are; how we got here; where we are going (if anywhere). Other life forms? Other planets? I suggest it is impossible.
SETI - high tech naval gazers. Get to play with neat equipment and don’t have to produce anything. Great job if you can find suckers to pay for it.
Navel that is.
Avoid Washington DC.
Dear Dr. Drake: I recommend you seek answers from the One Who created the heavens and the earth. He’s already spoken on such matters.
I do. I wish it was reciprocal though...
FR is just not up to snuff these days....
0% evidence; 100% story telling and wishful thinking!
Same thing could have caused life there that did here!
Excellent article. Thanks for the link.
Yep.
And, how else to explain Biden?
That's what science is....the search for answers. In astronomy, the answers take a long time, and we are just at the first steps into seeing further into our own galaxy as well as others.
Finding planets in the 'life belt' of solar systems similar to our own is the goal of a lot of scientists.
You’re welcome.
Every culture has had its sustaining myth and when it loses favor, another is soon cast in its place; each myth has as its defining property the requirement of sacrifice for all fear angering the gods or the forces aligned against them.
Today’s is no better as we see flocks scattering as our shepherds lose their way while new charmers spring up gathering them back together, promising salvation from certain calamity if they will but give up a bit more.
For all his talk about independence, man is inexorably drawn to the pulsing heat of the madding crowd.
Junk science commonly refers to the use of invalid scientific evidence or findings which simply cannot be justified or understood from the standpoint of the current state of credible scientific or medical knowledge.
For example, I can apply the same “rigor” of the Drake equation to the AOTHOAP calculation:
N=R*fp* ne* fl *fi *fc
Where
N is the number of Angels that can dance on the head of a pin
R is the number of Angels in the universe
fp is the size, in millimeters of the head of the pin
fl is the diameter of an angel
fc is the distance, in millimeters between two angels standing next to each other
What is the difference? I get the same answer – something between “zero” and “billions and billions”
Not that it really matters.
"Farscape and Battlestar. "
"Why do they all have to begin "F"? "
If my memory serves me, at least the show that originated this whole genre (crews on the run) used the accurate f-word.
How many stars in this picture? How many with planets surrounding them? How many of those might possibly sustain life? How many stars can we NOT see yet or discern planets surrounding them? This is just PART of what we can see, and not all of the universes we know of at this time. To say we don't know or can't know is putting your head in the sand. Man has always been curious of how he came to be here and for what purpose.
My comment is that the serious looking Drake equation is JUNK SCIENCE. It implies scientific rigor when it is nothing but guesses and opinions. A calculation that can mean anything means nothing. The Drake equation is literally meaningless. The only thing it has to do with science is that is uses numbers. It is religion, not unlike the junk science behind the religion of Global Warming. The problen is that junk science can be used in nefarious ways, like John Edwards and other trial attorneys to enrich themselves, or Algore and the socialists trying to raise taxes on energy.
That I cannot do... but I expect the life forms there somehow have a combined DNA similar to a hairless shih-tzu meets dung beetles.
Hmmmmm.
What speculations do you have about that Good Dr Jess?
Has the late snow melted yet?
I love it when folks awaken to the facts of the Drake fantasy.
Stanton Friedman shreds it, too.
Hmmmm
Sounds like hour cosmology is as bleak as your theology.
Some of us have found Christ’s resurrection and particularly His LIFE in us . . . very convincing and encouraging.
Regardless . . . THE SHACK is a great read.
In other words, we're all just a bunch of democrats, right?
There are 10-22 power stars (equating to the number of sand grains on all of earths beachs) in the observable Universe so the odds are overwhelming that there are many civilizations that are capable of generating radio signals. I think that it is just a matter of time before SETI will finally pick up a “no doubt about it” artificial signal. The Allen Array is dedicated full time to this task so I am waiting for Seth Shostak to finally open that bottle of champagne in celebration. In other news we still have some snow on the ground but it is rapidly going away.
Odds are there’s a planet out there shaped just like Alfred E. Newman’s head. That’s the discovery I’m waiting for.
There have been persistent rumors from various sources the last several years that
SUCH SIGNALS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED
And that SETI is lying when they insist not.
I wouldn’t doubt that, really.
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