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Dire warnings were premature, experts suggest (Experts Downplay Flu Fear)
Houston Chronicle ^ | May 2, 2009 | By TODD ACKERMAN

Posted on 05/03/2009 5:12:16 AM PDT by truthandlife

When the World Health Organization raised its swine flu threat level last week to suggest the first pandemic in more than four decades was imminent, the group’s director warned that “all of humanity is under threat.”

Across the country, it’s looked like that. School closings will keep more than 300,000 Texas students at home this week. Stores have sold out of masks that experts don’t recommend. Sports events and concerts have been canceled. Headlines have warned that “Outbreak Threatens Global Recovery.”

By the week’s end, an increasing number of experts were questioning whether it was overreaction.

“I don’t see anything to justify this panic,” said Robert Krug, a flu researcher at the University of Texas in Austin. “From all the evidence, this doesn’t look like a particularly lethal virus. People need a little more perspective.”

The perspective involves the seasonal patterns during which flu thrives and dies off, evidence that this virus lacks the kind of killer molecular features seen in some pandemics, cultural factors that could explain Mexico’s fatalities and the stark contrast between the annual U.S. toll from seasonal influenza and this outbreak’s mild severity.

To be sure, many of those factors were unknown 10 days ago, when concern began. Health authorities then only really knew the outbreak involved a new swine virus, which people presumably had no natural immunity to and which already had made its way into U.S. communities.

Such viruses can be nothing if not unpredictable. The Spanish Flu of 1918 seemed relatively mild when it appeared in the spring, but it went on to infect one-third of the world’s population, killing as many 50 million. In some virulent cases, the afflicted died hours after feeling their first symptom.

(Excerpt) Read more at chron.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bho44; bhocdc; bhohhs; bogus; flu; h1n1; influenza; swine; swineflu; who; yellowjournalism

1 posted on 05/03/2009 5:12:16 AM PDT by truthandlife
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To: truthandlife

The bigger threat that we face comes from the B. Hussein Obama Flu that is attacking our freedom and liberty.


2 posted on 05/03/2009 5:15:41 AM PDT by Howie66 (The one redeeming thing about liberals: their tendency to kill their own.)
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To: truthandlife

Maybe it’s the calm before the storm, as Fox News suggests.


3 posted on 05/03/2009 5:15:57 AM PDT by Carpe Cerevisi
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To: truthandlife

...and what was going on behind the scenes while the msm cleverly kept us distracted?

...We didn’t hear much about the Who What and Why (we know When and Where) of the AIR FORCE 1 FLYOVER OF NYC...still waiting to hear results of Obama’s “investigation” into the matter...since he didn’t know ANYTHING about it when it happened...


4 posted on 05/03/2009 5:19:41 AM PDT by smartymarty (When you know why you believe what you believe, leadership is inevitable.)
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To: truthandlife

Wait a few weeks or a month until the sick and contagious illegals start flowing across the border looking for treatment. And those who are contagious but don’t know it yet.


5 posted on 05/03/2009 5:23:35 AM PDT by dhs12345
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To: truthandlife
This article is wrong in so many ways. Where to start:

(1) There appears to be a three week lag time from onset to the disease to deaths. How long has the disease been outside of Mexico?

(2) The Mexican government has lied about the disease from day one in an effort to maintain tourism. It would be a big mistake to pay attention to anything they have to say.

(3) There is a 90% probable to actual ratio on CDC tests. They (and the states) now have thousands of probables waiting for testing. Since most cases are mild many folks probably did not submit specimens for testing.

(4) Something spooked Joe Biden. Perhaps it was US government folks getting sick from the Mexican Obama trip and infecting their families and co-workers.

(5) Countries in Asia are quarantining foreigners and their own citizens. Their actions speak for themselves.

If we get lucky this may not be a big deal, but this flu seemed to prosper in Mexican heat, so I remain very concerned.


6 posted on 05/03/2009 5:30:56 AM PDT by cgbg (Cap and trade + electric cars = stranded and broke.)
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To: cgbg

Sounds like you are looking for a crisis and to be fearful.


7 posted on 05/03/2009 5:32:48 AM PDT by truthandlife ("Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God." (Ps 20:7))
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To: Howie66
That's been my personal thinking....the compliant media has used this flu business to provide cover for the daily Obama shenanigans.

"All flu, all the time"...

8 posted on 05/03/2009 5:33:13 AM PDT by ErnBatavia (Impeach now!)
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To: ErnBatavia

Yep! The media pukes are about the only “transparent” thing connected to this “administration”.


9 posted on 05/03/2009 5:38:10 AM PDT by Howie66 (The one redeeming thing about liberals: their tendency to kill their own.)
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To: Howie66
The bigger threat that we face comes from the B. Hussein Obama Flu that is attacking our freedom and liberty.

When pigs fly! (swine flu?)

10 posted on 05/03/2009 5:40:03 AM PDT by The_Media_never_lie
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To: Carpe Cerevisi
"Maybe it’s the calm before the storm, as Fox News suggests."

There are several possibilities here:


11 posted on 05/03/2009 5:44:46 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: truthandlife
That is one of the problems of the Internet. You don't know me.

I am known as a very positive person with a constant smile on my face.

My track record around here (for predictions and analysis) speaks for itself.

I just spent the first half of 2008 trying to convince an Army of Freepers that Hillary would not win the Democratic nomination. I think most didn't believe me until the Convention vote was taken. :-)

I am just trying to get folks to pay attention. I prefer to believe that I am looking at apathy and not denial, because I can only anger someone who is in denial.


12 posted on 05/03/2009 5:45:42 AM PDT by cgbg (Cap and trade + electric cars = stranded and broke.)
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To: truthandlife
TOLD Y'ALL SO.... Never trust government organizations and linked in corporations who stand to make millions of $$$ on pandemic outbreaks. The peasants panic and the millions $$$ roll in!

People have been around for 10,000+ years. If there was such a thing as a deadly pandemic, we would never have survived this long. All of this is just part of the natural flow of life on Earth.

13 posted on 05/03/2009 5:46:37 AM PDT by April Lexington (Study the constitution so you know what they are taking away!)
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To: truthandlife

Thinking it is more like stating the obvious.

Who knows, maybe we’ll get lucky.

But it isn’t too much of a stretch to think that at least a few sick illegals from Mexico have or will make it into our cites and spread the flu.

Especially with all of the incentives for crossing the border and the very lax control of the same. All driven by the desire to be politically correct.

Seems pretty obvious.

If there is an outbreak and it can be traced to an illegal, then there will be heck to pay.


14 posted on 05/03/2009 5:54:16 AM PDT by dhs12345
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To: smartymarty
...and what was going on behind the scenes while the msm cleverly kept us distracted?

That's been my question all week. I know Sebellius was pushed through as Secretary of HHS. Nobody talked much about the delay of the stress test results. Chrysler bankruptcy and O's excoriation of the hedge funds didn't get too much play. The flyover...who knows what that was about. More of our debt was monetized (the fed bought more treasury bonds), I hardly heard a word about that. Many companies reported earnings for first quarter that were miserable. Unemployment increased, etc. etc. etc. And all we heard was "We're going to die from a pandemic!" when in fact only one child in this country has died, and he was from Mexico and had a pre-existing medical condition to begin with.

15 posted on 05/03/2009 6:05:30 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: truthandlife

>Maybe it’s the calm before the storm, as Fox News suggests...

Yes. The talking heads said that in 1976, as well.


16 posted on 05/03/2009 6:06:24 AM PDT by bill1952 (Power is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: cgbg

“I am known as a very positive person with a constant smile on my face.”

I think you are being reasonably cautious here. You are right to take the threat seriously. You aren’t panicking and you are rightly skeptical of the media and the Mexican government.

There are also at least a few cases where young healthy people have ended up in ICU, so it clearly has the potential to become very dangerous. I think that most people just don’t understand the flu virus and how it becomes so dangerous. Of course that doesn’t stop them from making judgements such as “this thing is over’. This may end up to be a minor virus, but there is not any way to tell yet. Anyone with a solid understanding of flu viruses and how they mutate, is concerned about the potential this virus has.

I read today that a couple from Spain contracted the virus by being on the plane with a couple returning from Mexico. Clearly this is easily transmitted from human to human. There are also an increasing level of diagnosed cases. I will be carefully watching the progression of this virus, but I haven’t seen anything to indicate that I shouldn’t continue my normal activities so far.


17 posted on 05/03/2009 6:07:29 AM PDT by ga medic
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To: truthandlife
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2243073/posts

And then there is this. Has the ‘scientific methodology’ been filtered through the political filtration system... According to this, this is NOT new... December 2005 appears to be when it was first identified.

18 posted on 05/03/2009 6:10:52 AM PDT by Just mythoughts (Bama and Company are reenacting the Pharaoh as told by Moses in Genesis!!!!!)
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To: truthandlife

My kid’s schools are cancelled as of this past Friday afternoon. They had a “probable” case in someone who worked for the district and was in the buildings. We should know this evening the results, and if they will open school tommorow. I’m not concerned about it..not until people start dying. But I can’t figure out why all the over precaution unless the gov’t knows things we don’t. Is it just the media pushing the panic.?..they love crisis to report on. Honestly, since my middle schooler is double booked Monday night (baseball game and band concert) I wouldn’t mind a day of school closing..the concert would be cancelled.:)


19 posted on 05/03/2009 6:11:47 AM PDT by Lets Be Frank
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To: cgbg

more interesting flu articles here

http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=3232&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=705


20 posted on 05/03/2009 6:24:02 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: truthandlife

“swine flu”, AKA “we don’t want you to know Hussein threatened Chrysler investor flu”


21 posted on 05/03/2009 6:26:19 AM PDT by prismsinc (A.K.A. "The Terminator"!)
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To: truthandlife

It’s May 3 and the CDC still does not show the three confirmed TN cases, that have been known since Apr 29th.


22 posted on 05/03/2009 6:39:14 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: dawn53; smartymarty
The flyover...who knows what that was about.

Michael Moore was shooting a new film which extends 9/11 with a 'what if the planes hadn't been grounded so quickly?'.

One of the planes is on Target for Ellis Island.

Moore wanted some good crowd shots, so the public was not informed, per orders from the 'top'.

And the Administration didn't 'lie'. They said it was a 'photo op'.

(maybe I'm kidding, maybe I'm not)

23 posted on 05/03/2009 6:51:11 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The Last Boy Scout)
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To: truthandlife

Damn! I thought I was going to be able to finally use those 50 lb bags of rice I still have left from Y2K.


24 posted on 05/03/2009 6:56:14 AM PDT by Tail Gunner John
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To: truthandlife
When the World Health Organization raised its swine flu threat level last week to suggest the first pandemic in more than four decades was imminent, the group’s director warned that “all of humanity is under threat.”

When the MSM ran with it ( the same folks who give us eviro-alarmism) we should have known either it was either high liberal drama ( government must take control) or the "flu" was suspected of hitting some protected liberal victim group...

25 posted on 05/03/2009 7:04:46 AM PDT by GOPJ (We sleep safe..because rough men stand ready..to visit violence on those who would do us harm-Orwell)
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To: truthandlife
This flu thing was just another attempt to portray obama as this superhuman man of action. The media has blown this way out of proportion for the sake of the magic negro.
26 posted on 05/03/2009 7:07:34 AM PDT by odin2008 (EVIL TRIUMPHS WHEN GOOD MEN DO NOTHING)
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To: GOPJ
When the MSM ran with it ( the same folks who give us eviro-alarmism) we should have known either it was either high liberal drama ( government must take control) or the "flu" was suspected of hitting some protected liberal victim group...

Here you go:

HIV patients at higher risk from flu, WHO says


27 posted on 05/03/2009 7:08:58 AM PDT by truthandlife ("Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God." (Ps 20:7))
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To: cgbg
(1) There appears to be a three week lag time from onset to the disease to deaths. How long has the disease been outside of Mexico?

The people who have gotten it here have all (AFAIK) had a mild flu for a week and recovered. Are they suddenly going to die two weeks later?

The Mexican government has lied about the disease

If anything they have overstated. They have 12 confirmed deaths. Lots of other deaths suspected (blamed) are more likely due to their extraordinarily poor sanitary conditions.

On the rest of your points, yes, there are probably 1000's of cases here now and it is everywhere and like you said many more mild cases went unreported. On Biden and Asians being spooked, Biden is an idiot and Asian countries have had their own problems with the much more lethal (but not human to human spreading) avian flu. The only wild card that would support your case is the possibility of a random mutation.

28 posted on 05/03/2009 7:09:10 AM PDT by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: April Lexington
People have been around for 10,000+ years. If there was such a thing as a deadly pandemic, we would never have survived this long. All of this is just part of the natural flow of life on Earth.

The Black Death killed two thirds of the population of Europe. That was the natural flow of life on Earth.

Species die out, become extinct. That is the natural flow of life on Earth.

Pandemics are real things.

I understand your point about . ‘The peasants panic and the millions $$$ roll in!” But I would blame the news media more than governments and drug companies.

The media love a story that’s a little bit scary because those stories get attention and that sells advertising.

29 posted on 05/03/2009 7:14:21 AM PDT by Pontiac (Your message here.)
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To: truthandlife

I just wish they would post the number of folks in the world who DON’T have H1N1 flu.


30 posted on 05/03/2009 7:45:48 AM PDT by varina davis (Life is not a dress rehearsal)
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To: truthandlife

Wait until this fall for a second wave.


31 posted on 05/03/2009 7:54:57 AM PDT by ▀udda▀udd (7 days - 7 ways Guero >>> with a floating, shifting, ever changing persona....)
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To: palmer

update: AP says 19 confirmed cases in Mexico this AM


32 posted on 05/03/2009 9:13:06 AM PDT by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: palmer

19 confirmed deaths


33 posted on 05/03/2009 9:13:57 AM PDT by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: Just mythoughts

I have heard them say a couple times that there are a couple of the H1N1 cases every year. It is most likely from pigs, and has very little potential for transmission from human to human. Apparently, the 2009 has mutated to allow for human to human contact much more easily.

Not sure whether the 2 cases in CA are related to this outbreak. The article states that they couldn’t have gotten it in Mexico because they didn’t travel there. It doesn’t explain how they could have been the source of the Mexican outbreak, when they didn’t travel there.


34 posted on 05/03/2009 9:46:28 AM PDT by ga medic
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To: palmer
In a couple of weeks we will know for sure what the story is on this wave.

One early indicator to watch--Cal State Long Beach just had its first confirmed case (reported today). The CDC is recommending "schools" close for fourteen days when they have confirmed cases.

Let's see what this large state-run college decides to do. Arnie will earn his money this week. :-)


35 posted on 05/03/2009 9:51:50 AM PDT by cgbg (Cap and trade + electric cars = stranded and broke.)
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To: ga medic
I have heard them say a couple times that there are a couple of the H1N1 cases every year. It is most likely from pigs, and has very little potential for transmission from human to human. Apparently, the 2009 has mutated to allow for human to human contact much more easily. Not sure whether the 2 cases in CA are related to this outbreak. The article states that they couldn’t have gotten it in Mexico because they didn’t travel there. It doesn’t explain how they could have been the source of the Mexican outbreak, when they didn’t travel there.

Thank you for the information.

36 posted on 05/03/2009 7:37:08 PM PDT by Just mythoughts (Bama and Company are reenacting the Pharaoh as told by Moses in Genesis!!!!!)
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To: April Lexington
Well, 1.5 BILLION has been allotted so far...BY OBAMA. Who owns Tamiflu.

The big thing early on was that there was no vaccine for this flu....BUT WAIT...Here's a whole bunch of Tamiflu "STOCKPILED"....which will work. Imagine that!!

37 posted on 05/04/2009 1:46:27 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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