Posted on 05/15/2009 8:36:36 AM PDT by luckystarmom
The real danger lies in the possibility of a recombinant form which will make the rounds later this year and be more deadly.
The 1918 flu had a mild Spring first wave, then came back around with a vengeance later in the year, which has been the pattern for the four relatively significant pandemic flus in the last 100 years.
This might not amount to anything, but forewarned is forearmed--if people bother to do a few basics.
Here is a contrast with 1918, too which you may or may not find significant.
A much higher proportion of the US population was involved in raising their own food and livestock. They were not dependant on power companies, computers, gaslight, television, or other public utilities.
They had their own wells, which did not rely on electricity to get the water out.
They often heated/cooked with wood or coal for fuel.
They were not reliant on centralized sewer systems nor water plants, (Though most city dwellers certainly were reliant on such).
Foodstocks were produced locally, for the most part, not imported from another country.
In the event those critical services fail, even on a regional basis, I think the picture will be much different than if similar failures occurred in 1918.
Our infrastructure may be more advanced, but in many regards, it is more fragile. Without that, the wonderful medical and sanitary advances of which you speak will not only be negated, but the overall picture will be worse.
Not just that people obviously ill are sanitary and the people with them, but EVERYTHING is pre-emptively sanitary. Restaurants, hotels, etc; everywhere you go.
With so many people who are fresh from the third world doing the sanitizing, I am not so sure. I have observed (thankfully, before I ordered) employees wearing the plastic food service gloves absent-mindedly picking at zits--with the glove on, and other indiscretions which negate the alleged protections in place.
People who used to be trained to cover a cough do not. Kids now are being trained to cough into the crook of their elbow--an admitted improvement, but there are many in the 20-40+ age range I have observed who do not.
Look around on the morning commute, and observe the number of people who are knuckle deep into a nostril as they drive down the road. When they get to work, they will likely manage to share the fruits of their labors.
We may crow about anti-bacterial this, and sanitizing that, but overall personal habits have not improved in the last 50 years, if anything they have gone downhill. Now that is an unscientific set of observations, but something I have been noticing in the past few decades. Also, keep in mind that a large number of food service workers are young, at the bottom of the ladder, and do not get sick pay where they work. Many of them cannot afford to take a day off if they can get to work, so they take some OTC symptom stopper and go to work.
The Mrs. (if mommy is married) isn't home taking care of the kiddies, but is working, too, so the small fry get shipped off to school, or off to the daycare where pathogen exchange is a daily bonus.
There are a host of social changes which have occurred which will make the spread of any serious communicable disease more of a certainty, and with global air travel, make the rapidity with which that occurs something only dreamed of in 1918.
That rapidity virtually guarantees that the system will be overwhelmed in the event of a serious outbreak.
The point about expiration dates was that because of them, inventories are somewhat limited to a relatively comfortable margin above what is anticipated to be needed. No Pharmaceutical Company wants to be stuck with outdated inventory. The huge stocks aren't there, beyond a percentage over and above what would normally be used.
Now, if you aren't the type to toss a bottle of aspirin or whatever just because of the date on the label, I'd purt'near wager you are the type who also has more than a can of pork and beans in the cupboard against the day you can't get out and run to the store.
I'm not trying to get anyone to panic over this--as I freely admit, this bug hasn't killed very many people yet, and the possibility exists it may not, ever.
As for recombinants, this is an unusual set of RNA strands already, and only time will tell what, if any reassortments occur.
However, and this is a thing I believe in, I think it is important to understand that the system we have, (imho, the best health care in the world) has its limitations, its weak points, and multiple critical failure points which could cause a crisis, not to mention the political aspects, and what the ramifications of limiting travel and trade might be for individuals, regions, and the Republic.
From a political viewpoint, we have people in power at the moment who would utilize any crisis in order to usurp more power. If that means using incidents, real or imagined, to create real problems, I would not put that beyond their consideration.
The only way to head this off at the pass is for people to be prepared for whatever may come, as best they can, without panic. The more who are situated with some OTC meds, food, water (and/or means of purifying it), toilet paper, etc., the less of a crisis any crisis will be, and the medical (or other significant) aspects can take precedence.
So I am advocating that people be prepared, as best they can, for whatever may come. That does not mean running out and buying an 'end of the world' food supply of stuff they may never use, just buying some extra and building a pantry, and having some extra other supplies on hand. By maintaining their own private inventory of stuff, they get the added bonus of cutting down on trips to the store to get something essential they run out of at a critical moment, because they have more of it on hand.
The bottom line though, is that people will be as well prepared as they can be for what may come, and that goes a long way toward mitigating any potential crisis, reducing panic, and subverting the aims any may have of using that crisis to command more extra-Constitutional power over the people. It is a panicked electorate which will demand their rights be taken away in times of crisis, a prepared people will not, and are more likely to insist on retaining those rights.
You make good points. Thanks.
However, I still do not believe our technological systems are that fragile - i.e., merely at the hands of a strong, healthy workforce. Part of the advance is that they run more automatically than with actual labor. No knit-picking now about how there ARE some people working with it; I’m talking compared to what such a thing used to require, which generally is a small %.
As for me saving food - not the same (although many foods actually keep well). Medicines largely just lose some effectiveness; most foods can be literally “sickening” at a certain point.
It’s OK to be cautious, but I still yet don’t see a real reason to be real concerned and make this such a news item. Oh well. I hope I’m right.
As to your comments about people themselves being considerate and personally sanitary - I’d say the biggest change is all the sexuality. People screwing all the time, indiscriminantly (don’t get me going). “I love you” - oh, great, let’s go screw! There’s a great way to pick up alot of garbage.
By the time you end up in the ICU on a ventilator, it is not uncommon for other organ systems to begin failing. The kidneys can fail due to dehydration, low blood pressure, the medications used to support blood pressure, and a myriad of other causes. They can ofter recover if the patient recovers.
From the picture I saw on TV (and it may not have been representative) this guy was seriously overweight. I can guess at multiple underlying conditions he had, whether he and the family were aware of them or not.
There’s a great way to pick up alot of garbage.
In more ways than one!
Actually swine flu does not appear to be as bad as the usual influenza. We see a good number of people every year hospitalized with the flu and its sequela, we have had only one hospitalized with swine flu at our institution, and that was very early one when everyone was so nervous about it.
Sadly, the patient died.
Thank you for the update. I am sorry to hear that. Prayers up for their family and friends.
??? The man of the article?
close to 100? wow! I was visiting my children in San Jose at the end of April, early May.....too cold for me then.
oops, which san jose is that? LOL
Yes.
California. Yea 1 day it’s been 100, and the next day high will be 80 with a low of 40.
It’s been warm to hot this spring.
I will have to keep track of ya....we can do lunch next time I get to San Jose...LOL.
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