Posted on 05/16/2009 4:04:21 PM PDT by grandpa jones
FRIDAY, May 15 (HealthDay News) -- While the official tally of confirmed U.S. swine flu cases topped 4,700 on Friday, experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now estimate the true number of infections at more than 100,000 nationwide.
[snip]
In fact, "estimates of the confirmed and probable cases in the United States is probably not the best indicator of transmission at this point," the CDC's Jernigan said. "The outbreak is not localized, but is spreading and appears to be expanding throughout the United States. This is an ongoing public health threat," he said.
It's a little hard to make an estimate of the number of people who have the H1N1 flu, Jernigan said, "but if we had to make an estimate, I would say that the amount of activity we are seeing with our influenza-like illness network is probably upwards of 100,000."
He said that there seems to be more cases of flu generally in the U.S. -- both the seasonal and the new H1N1 swine flu -- than is usually seen at this time of the year. "There are 22 U.S. states that are reporting widespread or regional influenza activity, which is something that we would not expect at this time," Jernigan said.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
What’s the formula they use to get 100,000?
If people really don’t have it; let’s put it in their minds they do.
Well, estimations are close anyway...
Money well spent. /s
Weegie Board and an astrological chart.
Let’s survey how many people know that the swine flu is a load of recycled crap from the 1970s. It was a scam then and it’s a scam now, just like the bird flu and SARS.
I was betting on a dart board...
I think I just came down with H1N1 while reading this article.
Now they know the rate of prevalence rise
WHEN THE BORDERS ARE INTENTIONALLY LEFT OPEN.
Pfft ...
I'm sure they just pulled a number out of the usual orifice...
And all 100,000 infected are gun-owning Conservatives who need to be quarantined...
Yes, we MUST have a crisis here. Pandemic, we must have a pandemic, or we will not be able to cram down this bogus health package that nobody has read. Like the Cap and Trade, we will rename it and re run it...........
Probably the S.W.A.G method
Some how this hysteria over H1N1 “swine flu” simply does not pass the smell test.
Yes, there have been deaths, but it is not yet an epidemic.
I was in Amarillo about a week ago and the reported numerous cases, which later were discovered to be another type of common flu.
I also remember the hysteria that the “big toothed” Pres. Carter tried to promote over swine flu. There was not a single U.S. case.
This time the cases that have been documented seem to be from contact in Mexico.
This is not a global epidemic.
Same idiots that will use sampling to do the census.
Actually, I believe that this is technically an epidemic. The definition of an "epidemic" has absolutely nothing to due with a diseases mortality rate and everything to do with it's infection rate. This diseases' infection rate meets the definition of an epidemic.
THE SAME AS THE ECONOMISTS--THE PFA THEORY (PLUCKED FROM AIR)
vaudine)
Geese Louise, they just can’t help themselves. This kind of fictional reporting must be an addiction.
It’s the method they used for the financial crisis, described in the South Park episode “Margaritaville”.
actual # of cases X 10
double it
round up
The Swine Flu of 1976 had every indication of being a killer flu, and was less than 10 years after the Hong Kong flu of 1968 had disastrous effects around the US. The HK flu left millions of Americans flat on their back for weeks, even though it only killed 33,000 Americans.
President Ford was absolutely right to try and get the wholly inadequate flu defenses up to the level needed for a killer flu, and there was no argument against his requests at any level of the government. But then, unexpectedly, the Swine flu again mutated to a far less harmful strain.
It did demonstrate, however, that we were helpless against a killer flu.
As far as your contention that H5N1 Avian flu is a scam, let me assure you it remains the most dangerous threat to the United States short of nuclear war, with mortality estimates in its current form from between 10-30 million Americans.
It is vastly superior to every known influenza, including the Spanish flu of 1918. The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of 2.5% of infected persons. So far, inexplicably, the H5N1 Avian flu has maintained a mortality rate of over 60%, except only in one location, Egypt.
H5N1 has subdivided into three major subgroups, or clades. The Chinese clade is expanding its *endemic* territory throughout SE Asia, becoming a permanent part of its ecosystem, and emerging unpredictably, hundreds of miles apart.
The Bangladesh clade is not adapting to humans well, but has developed an unheard of number of animal vectors, including animals with vastly different immune systems. If it emerges as an animal plague, it could wipe out most domestic animals in the world.
The Egyptian clade is the only one with diminished mortality, and then only in children. This is perhaps the most dangerous clade, as its human hosts can help it adapt to spreading from human to human. Then, when it reemerges, it can readily assume its more lethal form.
Within one year of the Asian introduction of antiviral agents, such as Tamiflu, all of the normal influenza strains of North America have developed resistance to them.
The main reason H5N1 has not become easily spread from humans to humans is because most of its reproduction happens in the lower trachea, instead of the upper trachea and sinuses. This is not a major adaptation. However, it makes up for this by, unlike other types of influenza, reproducing in other internal organs.
So far, physicians has been able to tell if an H5N1 victim is going to survive or die by simply looking at a chest X-ray. A large percentage of the death have occurred because of oxygen deprivation to the internal organs. In short, the lungs were destroyed.
The bottom line is that H5N1 cannot be compared to any previously known human disease. Its effects are instead potentially comparable only to the intentional introduction of myxomatosis in an effort to wipe out the rabbits of Australia in 1950:
http://www.csiro.au/science/MyxomatosisHistory.html
And while H5N1 is not *that* lethal as a disease, it is closer to it, in mortality rate, than any previously known human epidemic.
Wishful thinking. They're trying to claw their way back to relevance.
You get 100,000 from:
98,000 illegals that they call Americans
2,000 true legal Americans
LOL. That’s how it works.
Confirmation carries a cost and I'm sure they're not running tests on everybody who has a singular symptom that MIGHT indicate flu.
I'm guessing too that they might have models based on a number of factors that allow them to produce a rough estimate based on statistical elements such as severity spread of cases, actual confirmations vs referrals, and other elements.
Consider this extreme simplification: IF you knew that the severity distribution followed a bell curve, and all you had was some of the upper region of that curve, you could fairly reasonably extrapolate the rest of the curve.
Totally misleading headline ...the quote is 100,000 “influenze-like” symptoms and was a totally off the cuff remark by one3 individual
far more deaths from the “normal” flu have happened.
I call Bravo Sierra on the title at least-scare mongering gone wild.
facts x fear x emotion x agenda x pi squared = CDC swine flu projection
It's Bush's fault.
Or, maybe they don't!
Thanks for finding this. I told my b/f (who is in Chicago) that Illinois had a ton of cases, and he didn’t believe me.
They have more than everyone else!
I call BS.
Anyone on this thread had a confirmed case of Swine Flu?
Know anybody that has?
I have friends all over the US. None of them have had the flu. And none of them know of any cases.
The CDC is using this as a money pit. Blown it all out of proportion.
One of my friend’s aunt had swine flu. It was caught early, so she’ll be all right.
Another friend had a couple of college students who were hospitalized for ‘something’ with serious flu symptoms. We’ve had some cases around here.
One of my really close friends is a doc...and will not travel now, citing 0bamaflu as the reason.
However, I do think this thing is being used to push 0bamacare.
Is this a bad thing? There have not been a lot of “healthy people” deaths so it seems like we will have a whole lot of people with immunity.
Furthermore, The Five Stages of Collapse
Age of Flu Victims Has Big Implications
Scientists Say Relative Youth of Ill People Is Evidence of Pandemic Potential
By David Brown
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 17, 2009
The swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus that burst into public consciousness a month ago is starting to behave like a mixture of its infamous, pandemic-causing predecessors.
It seems to have a predilection for young adults, as did its notorious ancestor, the 1918 Spanish influenza.
[snip]
Exactly how swine flu fits into the pantheon of flu pandemics will not be known for a while. It will take months — and many more victims — for its full personality and behavior to emerge. But one thing is clear: This is a lot more than just seasonal flu out of season.
[snip]
Perhaps the most worrisome features so far are the number and severity of cases in teenagers and young adults. This was noticed early, and the pattern has not changed much now that there are 5,000 laboratory-confirmed infections and probably more than 100,000 overall. The average age of the confirmed and probable cases is 15 years. Two-thirds are younger than 18.
[snip]
A variety of H1N1 strains circulated from 1918 to 1957, then disappeared for two decades. In 1977, however, an H1N1 strain surfaced that was nearly identical to the previous one, so much so that scientists suspect it was an accidental release from a lab freezer. It caused a pandemic — Russian flu — that was largely limited to people younger than 25, whose immune systems had never experienced H1N1.
More:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/16/AR2009051601850.html
LOLLL!
That episode of South Park was incredibly funny.
"It was the worst flu I've ever had in my life," he said yesterday. "I couldn't move. I felt like I was going to die, I could hardly breathe."According to medical experts, infection with H1N1 virus can range from no symptoms at all to feeling like you've been hit by a truck.
Gale was clearly in the latter category.
"I have never felt like that,'' he said. ``It almost felt like your body was shutting down."
What’s your point?
According to the article, one-third of the cases of Mexican swine flu are older than eighteen.
Here is a fifty-five year man old on a respirator:
NYC asst. principal with swine flu very ill
“...on Friday, Wiener’s son Adam said his father had only suffered previously from gout, which he said was unrelated to his current condition. He said his 55-year-old father is now suffering from pneumonia, kidney failure, dehydration and a lung infection.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2251629/posts
the point is that many of these cases seem to labeled as “mild.”
ping... (thanks for the ping, LucyT!)
Weegie Board and an astrological chart.
I was thinking they got it from a place that would mean it's brown and stinky.
“The CDC is using this as a money pit. Blown it all out of proportion.”
The CDC is doing its job, which is to communicate to the public what the status of this flu is. People can make their own decisions about travel and attendance at public events if they have accurate information about the flu. The fact that this man is saying that there are probably 100,000 cases in the US is a very good thing. That means that most people are not becoming seriously ill or dying from this flu. It is still beneficial for people to know how many people have become seriously ill, and what the symptoms are.
I am happy that you do not know anyone who had the flu. It isn’t meaningful, but good news just the same. Do you know anyone who was diagnosed with schizophrenia this year? There are around 100,000 new cases of schizophrenia each year in the US too. Just because you might not know one, doesn’t mean they aren’t there.
The media in many cases has blown this out of proportion. That isn’t the CDCs fault.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.