Skip to comments.Iran Does Have Some Fishy Numbers
Posted on 06/15/2009 10:51:15 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
A most strange storyline has emerged with regard to the provincial vote totals for the Iranian election. Around 1600 GMT Sunday, the ministry of Interior released the official vote totals by province. As others have mentioned, by law candidates have three days following voting to contest the result, before the final totals are approved by the Supreme Leader. As such, it is notable that both the aggregate totals and provincial totals were certified, approved and released before the three day deadline.
Another curious turn of events was that somewhere between 1600 and 2000 GMT, the provincial vote totals mysteriously disappeared from the English language (and all other languages other than Persian) versions of www.presstv.ir and other Iranian news outlets, where the interior ministry had distributed the results. As such, we are in debt to Daniel Berman and his colleagues for their translation of the official provincial numbers.
Although widespread allegations of fraud, manipulation, intimidation and other all too common elections tactics have been be common, statistically detecting fraud or manipulation is a challenge. For example, while mathematicians have been evaluating vote returns for irregularities in normal situational random number distribution , determining what the "correct" results should be is very difficult.
However, given the absolutely bizarre figures that have been given for several provinces, given qualitative knowledge - for example, that Mahdi Karroubi earned almost negligible vote totals in his native Lorestan and neighboring Khuzestan, which he won in 2005 with 55.5% and 36.7% respectively - there is room for a much closer look.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
lots of stats and data at the link.
one for the road Ping
You know what? I bet Achmedinijad (whatever!) can at least produce his birth certificate.
Trimming way back on the heavy pinging....the volume is getting huge.
Iranviolence 2009. Got it.
Some good graphs....will spend some time tomorrow looking ...
Here are some:
Should be IRANviolence2009....
# Story Highlights
# NEW: Seven killed after they reportedly attacked a military post in central Tehran
My only very pleasant surprise in the whole situation is that the CIA backed dissidents have snowballed to such a degree. We are seeing a direct result of GW Bush's foreign policy. The fact that Bush has gotten zero credit and the fact that Obama has not been ostracized for his complete failure to back freedom is not surprising at all.
I’ve seen 2 reports, both from the Interior Ministry:
49 million eligible voters
42 million actual voters
19 million for Musavi
13 million for Karubi
6 million for Ahmadinejad
3.5 million for Rezai
Rezai 2.7 million votes, or 7.2%
Karubi 2.2 million votes, or 6%
1.6% of the 37.4 million votes no preference