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The Four Iran Scenarios and "Basiji Hunting"
The Washington Note ^ | Friday, Jun 19 2009, 2:06PM | Steve Clemons

Posted on 06/19/2009 12:27:50 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

One of my colleagues at the New America Foundation's Global Strategic Finance Initiative, Douglas Rediker, received this note from a friend abroad. It's illuminating as to how a well-connected Iranian internationalist who has been in Tehran during much of the post-election unrest sees matters now. To protect Rediker's source, I can't make references about where he is today.

The email:

As of yesterday the options facing the country were well summarised by Simon Tisdall and Ellie Rose in The Guardian:

1 - Happy ending

To widespread surprise, the hardline Guardian Council conducts a thorough recount of votes, as ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and decides, amid much embarrassment, that there should be a new election. Mir Hossein Mousavi wins. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accepts defeat. Pro-democracy demonstrators celebrate triumph of "green revolution". New government responds positively to US invitation to "unclench fist" and open talks on nuclear issue.

2 - Damp squib

The partial recount ordered by the Supreme Leader concludes Ahmadinejad won a clear victory, although by a narrower margin. Despite lingering suspicions of foul play, the opposition is forced to accept the verdict amid a continuing nationwide crackdown on dissent and warnings that further disorder will be dealt with harshly. Ahmadinejad, in bad odour with the Supreme Leader for provoking demonstrators, moderates his line on policy issues. Mousavi vows to fight again.

3 - Confrontation

The Guardian Council's partial vote recount and investigation into electoral fraud are rejected by the opposition. Demonstrations spread and intensify, with ever greater numbers of Iranians taking to the streets calling for the resignation of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. Security forces respond with increasing force, arresting thousands and closing down media coverage, texting networks, websites and Twitter. Purge of reformist leaders, intellectuals, students and journalists continues. Leaderless demos gradually peter out, leaving resentment. Ahmadinejad steps up anti-western rhetoric. Resumed protests at a later date considered highly likely.

4 - A second revolution

An insider cabal of senior clerical and establishment conservatives challenges Khamenei and forces his resignation after a vote in the Assembly of Experts. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani is elected in his stead and orders an investigation into the actions of Ahmadinejad and other senior members of the regime. Hardliners rally round the president while reformists demand new elections. Amid growing instability, Iran's unique Islamic/secular system of governance appears in danger of collapse".

As of Mr. Khameneni's speech today it seems that (1) above is no longer an option. For everything that Mousavi has publically announced option (2) also seems unlikely.

Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.



TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran; iranviolence2009
This is an Excerpt
1 posted on 06/19/2009 12:27:50 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: NormsRevenge; Marine_Uncle; SolidWood; Straight Vermonter; G8 Diplomat; Man50D; SunkenCiv; ...

fyi


2 posted on 06/19/2009 12:28:22 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I’m thinking 3, starting tomorrow with the Sea of Green march


3 posted on 06/19/2009 12:30:01 PM PDT by lewisglad
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Do the protestors or demonstrators have access to weapons, besides the simple, homemade kind?

And it also makes you wonder what effect the problems in Tehran will have on their ability to meddle with Iraq.

4 posted on 06/19/2009 12:32:41 PM PDT by Repealthe17thAmendment (Is this field required?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

5. Happier ending: Khamenei and Ahmadinejad end up hanging from lamp posts.


5 posted on 06/19/2009 12:33:57 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Chrysler and GM are what Marx meant by the means of production.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'. Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected.

Classic guerrilla tactics.

6 posted on 06/19/2009 12:37:31 PM PDT by ScreamingFist
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach “Unfortunately”?
(3) and (4) are by far the best outcomes, with (4) obviously being what we are aiming for.
Still, as unpleasant as it may be if (3) is what is to come to pass, at least Ahmadinejad and the Theocracy will emerge with their credibility in tatters, to be ultimately overthrown some time later, Israel will be able to continue their mission to derail Iran’s nukes without having to adjust their calculus, and 0bama’s “outreach” as a politically viable approach will be DOA, along with his credibility in foreign policy matters.
 
7 posted on 06/19/2009 12:41:59 PM PDT by counterpunch (In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Twitter report

Protest Atlanta Georgia 20 June 2009: 16:00 19:00 In front of CNN HQ in Atlanta 192 Marietta St NW Atlanta, GA
8 posted on 06/19/2009 12:42:06 PM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; All

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FP-45_Liberator


9 posted on 06/19/2009 12:46:45 PM PDT by Charlespg
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Twitter report

: ALL IRANIANS AND SUPPORTERS IN L.A., THERE WILL BE A PROTEST TOMORROW AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING IN WESTWOOD!
10 posted on 06/19/2009 12:50:45 PM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it!)
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To: lewisglad

Sea of Green...and they’re not celebrating St. Patrick’s Day.


11 posted on 06/19/2009 12:53:26 PM PDT by BeerLover NYC
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

How many votes did the Supreme Leader get?


12 posted on 06/19/2009 12:53:48 PM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: ScreamingFist

This sounds wonderful. Basiji Hunting! Maybe they can make it into a video game.


13 posted on 06/19/2009 12:57:03 PM PDT by BeerLover NYC
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To: BeerLover NYC

I hope they are armed tomorrow...


14 posted on 06/19/2009 12:57:21 PM PDT by lewisglad
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To: BenLurkin

Supreme Leader in Iran, Dear leader in N. Korea what title should we give President Zero?


15 posted on 06/19/2009 12:58:51 PM PDT by BeerLover NYC
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To: BeerLover NYC
This sounds wonderful. Basiji Hunting! Maybe they can make it into a video game.

They need rifles.

16 posted on 06/19/2009 1:00:12 PM PDT by Bon mots
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To: Bon mots

Hey in the video game we can let the Moussavi people have nukes!


17 posted on 06/19/2009 1:04:27 PM PDT by BeerLover NYC
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To: BeerLover NYC

Basiji Hunting! Maybe they can make it into a video game.

Would that be for the BaWiiji gaming system?
18 posted on 06/19/2009 1:05:09 PM PDT by G8 Diplomat (I'm learning Arabic, Farsi, Urdu, Pashtu, and Russian so someday you won't have to)
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To: BeerLover NYC

what title should we give President Zero?

Caliph Hussein?
19 posted on 06/19/2009 1:06:06 PM PDT by G8 Diplomat (I'm learning Arabic, Farsi, Urdu, Pashtu, and Russian so someday you won't have to)
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To: G8 Diplomat

Dunno? Maybe?


20 posted on 06/19/2009 1:06:09 PM PDT by BeerLover NYC
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Option #5
News outlets learn to spell “Tienem Square “ in Persian.

The Mullahs will not give up power without a lot of bloodshed. No dictator ever has.....


21 posted on 06/19/2009 1:06:12 PM PDT by ASOC (Who IS that fat lady, and why is she singing?????)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Wishful thinking. #2 wins, hands down.


22 posted on 06/19/2009 1:10:39 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("Do you call it 'unsound method'?" "No method at all," I murmured.)
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To: BeerLover NYC; BenLurkin

What, *The One*...*the Messiah* ain’t good enough?


23 posted on 06/19/2009 1:10:55 PM PDT by wolfcreek (KMTEXASA!)
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To: ASOC

Postscript — Google enters into agreement to steer searches away from photos of the massacre.


24 posted on 06/19/2009 1:13:21 PM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: G8 Diplomat

Not bad!


25 posted on 06/19/2009 1:14:47 PM PDT by BeerLover NYC
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To: BenLurkin

Missed that

Agreed with the Mullahs or with the State Dept?


26 posted on 06/19/2009 1:15:21 PM PDT by ASOC (Who IS that fat lady, and why is she singing?????)
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To: ASOC

Heh-heh!


27 posted on 06/19/2009 1:16:55 PM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

It was an honest question.

Given the non-stance taken by The One and Only BogO, I could believe the State Dept told Google to back off.

HOw about BING
Dogpile
ALtaVista
Etc?


28 posted on 06/19/2009 1:28:00 PM PDT by ASOC (Who IS that fat lady, and why is she singing?????)
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To: ASOC
Please accept my apology. The “postscript” was offered to the possible 5th scenario that you posed. It was not meant to be a report of an actual happening. I should have been more clear.
29 posted on 06/19/2009 1:32:09 PM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

AH - I see now.

Would not surprise me given the way Google bowed to the folks running China....and other dictators.


30 posted on 06/19/2009 1:54:12 PM PDT by ASOC (Who IS that fat lady, and why is she singing?????)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Marine_Uncle; AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; ...
1 - Happy ending... 2 - Damp squib... 3 - Confrontation... 4 - A second revolution... As of Mr. Khameneni's speech today it seems that (1) above is no longer an option. For everything that Mousavi has publically announced option (2) also seems unlikely. Unfortunately for everything I know, it now seems its either (3) or (4).
Thanks Ernest.
31 posted on 06/19/2009 3:08:14 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/__Since Jan 3, 2004__Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The Supreme Leader in Iran is religiously/legally infallible –period. He has entrenched himself. How can the Supreme Leader now flinch with any grace?

This is the blasphemy of the Mullahs, but how they collect their 20% annual tax. And what polarizes Iran from other Islamic states and Sunni’s.

Simply put, arrogance is a sin. (You don’t have to be religious to learn and know this ethic.)

Once the supreme leader sets out to put this down aggressively, presumably Tomorrow, it will be a fight to the finish.


32 posted on 06/19/2009 3:20:54 PM PDT by Fitzy_888 ("ownership society")
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'."
Well that is a refreshing bit of news.
33 posted on 06/19/2009 5:07:55 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Obama must be making huge piles of cigarette butts around the WH grounds at this point.)
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To: SunkenCiv
Hopefully major numbers of the regular police will join in and go on Basiji hunts. Burn them out of the HQ’s and obtain their arms and ammo and expand. Let news get out that any IRGC that interferes will loose their heads, literally. Then lets see if the regular military folks will grow some balls and do what they should have done a long time ago, once the IRGC started to get to powerful within the governmental framework.
34 posted on 06/19/2009 5:13:26 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Obama must be making huge piles of cigarette butts around the WH grounds at this point.)
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