IRAN: Endgame?

Hot Air ^ | June 22, 2009 8:46 am | Ed Morrissey

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The moment of truth has come in Iran.  The Guardian Council and Ali Khamenei have played their last card — and it might be a trump.  The Revolutionary Guard has now threatened to meet the protestors in the streets and give them a “revolutionary confrontation”:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is threatening to crush any further opposition protests over the disputed presidential election and warns demonstrators to prepare for a “revolutionary confrontation” if they take to the streets again.

The country’s most powerful military force ordered demonstrators to “end the sabotage and rioting activities” and said their resistance is a “conspiracy” against Iran.

A statement posted Monday on the Guard’s website warned protesters to “be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation with the Guards, Basij and other security forces and disciplinary forces.”

The mullahs have given up on the police and Basijis alone.  The Friday warning from Ali Khamenei, the prince formerly known as the divine and Supreme Leader, did nothing to stop Iranians from filling the streets this weekend.  Increasing brutality from the Basijis and police resulted in hundreds of arrests, dozens of deaths, and one national martyr for the opposition, but no end to the protests.  The police and Basijis have failed to put Iranians back in their place as subjects, and the only option left is a military operation to clear the streets.

If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete.  The mullahs will have no credibility with the people and will remain completely reliant on its army to maintain power internally.  The Revolutionary Guard will understand this well, and will quickly turn Khamenei and his elders into nothing more than puppets for the Guard’s purposes.  The question then will be whether the Guard can maintain control over 70 million Iranians who have already lost faith in their theocrats and never assented to rule by military force.

That assumes the Revolutionary Guard will remain cohesive.  Their senior leadership will see this as a way to grab power, but the rank and file may find it difficult to go to war with their own people, especially against Iranians protesting an election that the Revolutionary Guard considers stolen from one of their own.  Will the Revolutionary Guard maintain cohesion as they march into Iran’s cities and kill women and children?  The fact that the mullahs have to play this card makes the question all the more critical.

Update: Unconfirmed reports have the opposition calling for a general strike of indeterminate length starting tomorrow.  That will be difficult for a military operation to counter, and will further undermine the mullahs, if successful.

Update II: Allahpundit retweets a report from Tehran that claims the streets have gone quiet today, with Basiji and police patrolling in large numbers.  The strike may be the next phase, if it’s true and it’s successful.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[rjp2005]

If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete.

Knew this would happen. Ahmadinejad made it clear during his first term he was all about two things - complete control internally and nuclear tech development.

[ConservativeMan55]

bttt

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I believe the Mullahs are now out of power...

[wolfcreek]

And in the red corner....weighing in at...

[Riodacat]

I believe the Mullahs are now out of power...

Dream on...

[razeislam_crushthedems]

It’s funny how all dictators seem to play from the same book. Mao Tse-Tung would be proud.

[colorado tanker]

Nutjob is a puppet of the mullets, IMHO. If the Guards take over, he'll either puppet for them or be pushed out.

[SolidWood]

Henchmen also die.

The mullah regime is on it's way out.

Keep in mind that the wordly rule of mullahs is non-traditional and even contradictionary to Shia Islam. The "velayat-e faqih" as the rule of a mullah is called, is a recent invention of Khomeini and likeminded mullahs who weren't even "top tiers". It combines a islamic ideology with a Soviet "republican" dictatorship.

There is much controversy among mullah scholars over whether the velayat-e faqih is valid or not. This 30 years cruel experiment will meet the end it deserves.

[SolidWood]

There is some speculation over whether it’s already nutjob (via his loyal Guards and militias) that is holding the strings over that old coot Khamenei. The roles may indeed have changed.

[ridesthemiles]

Nutjob is a puppet of the mullets, IMHO. If the Guards take over, he’ll either puppet for them or be pushed out.”

Nutjob was a long time member of the Guards, IIRC.

[Uncle Hal]

From what I have heard the only way to stop the military takeover is a nation wide strike. This evidently is what brought the Shah down.

[colorado tanker]

So, you think the Guards are already running the show?

[Old Teufel Hunden]

If the military became the defacto head after this, I would think in some ways that may be worse. I would guess they would be foursquare behind fielding a nuke. Of course the regime would be completely illegitimate in the eyes of the world and perhaps this would be enough for our allies to move on true sanctions against Iran.

[unkus]

I’m sure Israel is on high alert status.

[Miss Behave]

I agree with you, Ernest. I believe it’s been a long, slow time in its coming. I believe that the tipping point is now—that it’s the only future. The people have, in my opinion, displayed this to be.

[SolidWood]

I think so. Khamenei has cancer and is a senile old coot. Nutjob is the Chavez-like frontman of a gang of Guards Generals and nepotists who have Khamenei at their mercy IMHO.

It's turned from a mullah dictatorship protecting itself with the Guards to a Guards dictatorship hiding behind mullahs.

That's why news of dissent and division within the Guards is so interesting.

[DustyMoment]

It’s a shame that the Iranians, whom we love to disparage, have more passion about THEIR government than we do about ours!!

Where are the protests in the street against the usurper’s occupation of the WH??

[Joe Boucher]

Sleep well mullahs,
The people will kill you when you sleep, when you go to the bathroom, when you do anything.
Sleep well tonight and fear the people.