Posted on 06/24/2009 6:42:45 AM PDT by Pride_of_the_Bluegrass
Is history repeating itself in Iran? Is the country replaying its 1979 revolution that ended 25 centuries of monarchy? With the current crisis showing no signs of abatement, these questions haunt many of those interested in Iran's future.
At first glance, there are many similarities between the current revolt and the 1979 one.
The first of these is the fact that the streets of Tehran and other major cities have become the principal arena for the power struggle.
In 1979, a substantial segment of Iranian society had lost all faith in institutional politics. The parliament was discredited because it was composed of the members of a single party - Rastakhiz (Renaissance), set up by the Shah.
The Council of Ministers, headed by the prime minister, was dismissed as irrelevant if only because all power rested with the monarch.
Because there were no parties to act as an interface between the elite and the broader society, small groups of militants, often operating in the streets, acted as vehicles for political expression.
Today, we have a similar situation. Within just a few days, all institutions of the state have ceased to function properly.
Communication within the political elite is no longer conducted through those institutions but via street rallies and counter demonstrations.
Another important similarity is that both movements started as efforts to enforce the constitution of the day.
(Excerpt) Read more at archive.gulfnews.com ...
What we are seeing now is civil unrest, and that is all that it will ever be.
Perhaps a foreign security service can foment a little more instability and unrest in Iran ... just to keep the pot stirred.
How about here?
But if some nation decided to arm the populace ......
Any person who wishes that to happen here in America is a just plain sick.
“What we are seeing now is civil unrest, and that is all that it will ever be.
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Agreed. It’s kinda tough to go to war when you don’t have firearms and the opposition does.
“How about here?”
***********
no chance. The military would crush a rebellion before it got started.
It can be done.
Just look at Jimuh Carter.....he went to war with 8 helicopters.
There is no regional ally that wants this to get worse. No one has anything to gain regionally by this getting worse or having the government change hands.
with every passing day, the general population gets younger and larger, while the ruling elite gets a little grayer and one step closer to the grave. The tide is inexorable (but not moving fast enough to save Israel from a nuke)
> There is no regional ally that wants this to get worse. No one has anything to gain regionally by this getting worse or having the government change hands.
The Israelis might. And they have the big brass bollix necessary to make it happen.
We are seeing some social unrest which will probably result in a cultural revolution. Political revolution is our of the question, there is nothing to gain from it.
You know, my wife made an astute observation last night while we were watching Fox News talk about Obama (ptui!) not speaking out in support of Iranian citizen protests. She said it's probably because Obama (ptui!) knows he will likely be facing the same thing before his term ends.
I guess you missed the story from the CSM
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0621/p06s04-wome.html
There worst fear is this
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6143
What you are hearing is the clamoring of the American Israelis lobby, which can bark louder because it doesn’t share a border with these bastards. Trust me, no one gains by a government in the ME up for grabs.
“Civil war unlikely in Iran”
That’s because the mullahs of Iran had their secret police go around and murder a few innocent protestors, just to scare the daylights out of the general population.
These are their islamic clerics. Hopefully some of the people will figure out there’s no difference between an Hamas terrorist and and Iranian mullah terrorist.
regional, shmegional ... this is global warfare (IMO)
I suggest everyone follow what’s happening in Iran add http://twitter.com/tehranbureau to your list.
Citing the CSM and Debka doesn’t really help bolster your arguements.
all shops was closed - nowhere to go - they follow ppls with helicopters - smoke and fire is everywhere #Iranelection 7 minutes ago from webIt's looking bad for the rebels.ppl run into alleys and militia standing there waiting - from 2 sides they attack ppl in middle of alleys #Iranelection
so many ppl arrested - young & old - they take ppl away - #Iranelection - we lose our group
saw 7/8 militia beating one woman with baton on ground - she had no defense nothing - #Iranelection sure that she is dead
they were waiting for us - they all have guns and riot uniforms - it was like a mouse trap - ppl being shot like animals #Iranelection
I see many ppl with broken arms/legs/heads - blood everywhere - pepper gas like war - #Iranelection
just in from Baharestan Sq - situation today is terrible - they beat the ppls like animals - #Iranelection RT RT RT
I would use fox news, but I don’t want anyone to think I have brain damage.
Yeah...ok. Whatever.
Well do you trust Stratfor http://www.stratfor.com
Analysis
The electoral crisis in Iran continued to unfold June 23, but the throngs of protestors seen in the days immediately following the election do not appear to be returning to the streets. There are numerous unconfirmed reports about a nationwide strike that was supposed to be observed June 23 but no indications of any successful attempts to mobilize workers. A work stoppage would be one way of avoiding the security crackdown, since it is more difficult for the authorities to make people report to work than to prevent them from taking to the streets.
This non-strike is very telling. Rumors had been spreading that public transportation companies would join the public protest and that their participation would be an important litmus test for the so-called revolution. Now everyone is backing away from the strike claim to avoid the perception that the movement is petering out.
As has been the case with the protests, the public leader of the opposition, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, has refrained from getting directly involved in any moves that could provoke the authorities or undermine the political system, which is currently under a considerable amount of stress. As a result, the public unrest appears to be slowly becoming autonomous, and protestors need a symbolic leader to make any headway.
These circumstances have allowed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his allies to continue finalizing the results of the election. A day after it admitted there were irregularities in the ballots from some 50 towns, the Guardian’s Council ruled out any annulment of the election results. Moreover, the official IRNA news agency has reported that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would take the oath of office on July 26 and his Cabinet would be sworn in by Aug. 19.
If anyone can remember Moldova http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Moldova_civil_unrest
Which was the CIA’s same basic model for what was instigated in Iran (Oh, I’m sorry did the news cycle pass and you forgot about Moldova, my apologies to the watchers of fox news) Their elections will be held next month and the Russians have already cut the deal on who gets to oversee Moldova. I mean unless we lied to them which is of course possible.
Except that the salary of the former is being paid for with our tax dollars now.
Yep - disgusting
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