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Battle for Iran Shifts from Streets to the Heart of Power
The Observer ^ | Sunday 28 June 2009 | Peter Beaumont

Posted on 06/27/2009 6:44:11 PM PDT by STE=Q

The power struggle inside Iran appears to be moving from the streets into the heart of the regime itself this weekend amid reports that Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani is plotting to undermine the power of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rafsanjani's manoeuvres against Khamenei come as tensions between the speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also appeared to be coming to a head.

(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; iran; iranviolence2009; khamenei; rafsanjani; revolution

1 posted on 06/27/2009 6:44:12 PM PDT by STE=Q
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To: STE=Q

it is ridiculous to allow this golden opportunity for permanent regime change in Iran to pass by , without arming as many opponents of the regime as possible at this time , to allow THEM to fight back against the Basij and RevGuards.

It will be a long time before this chance comes again ,and the result may be a mushroom cloud(s) rather than mere pointed street battles .

This is our shot . Take the shot


2 posted on 06/27/2009 7:06:26 PM PDT by LeoWindhorse
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To: LeoWindhorse
This is our shot .

With Hussein at the trigger it's not going to happen. This Administration is blowing the biggest chance for change in Iran in history.

3 posted on 06/27/2009 7:09:48 PM PDT by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: Lurker

this is why I say America needs to be led by warriors , not lawyers


4 posted on 06/27/2009 7:11:57 PM PDT by LeoWindhorse
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To: STE=Q

We have got to stop the massacre! They are crying for our help! They are asking for assistance! We can’t ignore them!

SHAME on our government for just talking about the crisis. SHAME on millions of Americans for their apathy!


5 posted on 06/27/2009 7:13:07 PM PDT by wk4bush2004 (STAND WITH FREE IRAN!!!!!)
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To: STE=Q; NormsRevenge; Marine_Uncle; SolidWood; Straight Vermonter; G8 Diplomat; Man50D; SunkenCiv; ..

Good news ping!


6 posted on 06/27/2009 7:15:08 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: wk4bush2004; NormsRevenge; Marine_Uncle; SolidWood; Straight Vermonter; G8 Diplomat; Man50D; ...
There are activities....related thread:

Computers hackers helping Iranian protesters

7 posted on 06/27/2009 7:17:01 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
Related thread:

Attempted Iran media clampdown meets Internet age

Access to The Twitter news:

************************************

http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23iranelection

***********************************************

Related thread from Sun 14 Jun 2009:

Iran: There Will Be Blood

8 posted on 06/27/2009 7:20:16 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: wk4bush2004

You said — SHAME on millions of Americans for their apathy!

I’ll advocate helping each Iranian — who first denounces Islam as an evil, oppressive, and violent governmental idealogy, denounces the Prophet Mohammed and who denounces Allah as a false god.

Each of those Iranians who does that, I’ll gladly support.

But, any Iranian who is an adherent to the evil and oppressive and violent government idealogy called Islam, they don’t deserve the time of day from me. They can keep shooting each other and kill each other off. That’s fine by me...


9 posted on 06/27/2009 7:42:27 PM PDT by Star Traveler (The God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob is a Zionist and Jerusalem is the apple of His eye.)
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To: STE=Q
Tweeter message:

****************************

Times of India reporting that Rafsanjani and family have been arrested, waiting for confirmation.

10 posted on 06/27/2009 7:43:08 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: STE=Q; NormsRevenge; Marine_Uncle; SolidWood; Straight Vermonter; G8 Diplomat; Man50D; SunkenCiv; ..
Somewhat dated:

More on Understanding Iran: The Conflict is not Just Intra-Elite, but Inter-Institutional

**************************************EXCERPT**************************

Monday, June 22, 2009

By Steven L. Taylor

I have focused on the issue of intra-elite conflict in most of my commentary on Iran, noting that the drama of the street protests is not ultimately where the endgame will be located. A comment to one of my posts yesterday from Matthew Shugart amplified this point by noting that the intra-elite conflict (i.e., the fact that the major players here, i.e., Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, Mousavi and Rafsanjani, et al. are all major long-term elites, and none are outsiders assailing the status quo elites) is also playing out within the state with differing institutional forces in play.

To wit: Khamenei is the Supreme Leader, but Rafsanjani is head of the Assembly of Experts, which oversees the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council. Theoretically the Assembly of Experts (which consists of 86 clerics) can dismiss the Supreme Leader. As such, not only do we have a situation in which elites are at odds, but one in which key elites have independent power resources that they can attempt to deploy to their own political ends. This does not mean that either will be successful nor that the resources in question are of equal power. Indeed, we may find out exactly how supreme the Supreme Leader is before this is all said and done or we may discover that other Iranian institutions are more robust than we might have otherwise thought.

Back to the Assembly of Experts: Matthew wrote about the last election of the Assembly here back in 2006 and noted the following (the whole post, btw, is worth reading):

The one clear formal role of the Assembly of Experts is to select the Supreme Leader when that position becomes vacant. The Assembly also has the formal power to oversee and even dismiss the sitting Supreme Leader, but no one expects that the current occupant of that position, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is in any jeopardy of being removed or seriously restrained by the winners of today’s Experts elections. In the sense that this institution has formal powers of supervision that it is not known to exercise this is, of course, an indicator of less-than-full institutionalization. That is, the relative autonomy of the Supreme Leader from oversight and the apparent security of his (life) tenure suggests “top-down” authority is a good deal stronger than “bottom up,” where the “top” is the Supreme Leader himself. This is a rather unremarkable statement: Almost all popular commentary on Iran assumes that the Supreme Leader is, well, supreme.

So is the Assembly of Experts therefore meaningless? Maybe, but I don’t think so. For one thing, one of the reasons its powers are limited is that the candidates for it–while popularly elected–are vigorously screened by a body known as the Guardian Council, which is a panel of twelve clerics, of whom six are appointed by the Supreme Leader and the other six by the elected parliament (Majles). It is easy to look at such top-down screening of candidates for a body like the Assembly of Experts and therefore conclude that the latter must be irrelevant. I would conclude the opposite.


11 posted on 06/27/2009 7:51:29 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All; NormsRevenge; Marine_Uncle; SolidWood; Straight Vermonter; G8 Diplomat; Man50D; SunkenCiv; ...
Searching around....found this:

Report: Rafsanjani considering alternative ayatollah council

************************EXCERPT****************************

Published: 06.22.09, 14:04

Al-Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reports Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is considered Iranian regime's No. 2, met with Assembly of Experts responsible for monitoring Supreme Leader Khamenei in attempt to 'protect regime from dangers'

Former Iranian President Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is considered to be the second most important figure in the country's regime, is looking into different ways to end the political crisis in Iran, and is mulling the possibility of setting up a new religious body, Al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper reported on Monday.

 According to the report, the former president and head of the cleric-run Assembly of Experts who is also one of defeated reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi's top supporters, has relocated from the flammable capital of Tehran, to the Shiite holy city of Qom, where the country's religious leaders sit.

The London-based newspaper reported that Rafsanjani arrived in the city a few days ago and met with several religious leaders and members of the Assembly of Experts, which is responsible for monitoring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

 The assembly came up with a number of possible ways to solve the crisis in the country, that erupted following the June 12 election results which the opposition claimed was rigged. One proposed solution was the establishment of an alternative religious council, made up of several top ayatollahs, in a move against Khamenei.

 

'Protecting regime from dangers'

"This move is meant to protect the regime from the dangers that threaten it," the source quoted by the paper said, citing danger that a deepening of the crisis would lead to greater polarization and put the regime at risk.

 

The source continued to say, "In light of the constitutional authority Rafsanjani and the Assembly of Experts hold, it is their duty to examine all propositions.

12 posted on 06/27/2009 7:57:55 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: wk4bush2004
We have got to stop the massacre! They are crying for our help! They are asking for assistance! We can’t ignore them!

I KNOW!

STE=Q

13 posted on 06/27/2009 8:02:18 PM PDT by STE=Q ("These are the times that try men's souls" ... Thomas Paine)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I only this evening understood the power of dispersion on Twitter. It is the equivalent of spread spectrum over fiber optics. Fragment in small bursts and intersperce with noise traffic. Great system.

I have no interest in chat formats, but this is powerful. And the only way they can stop it is to cut all ip traffic, which they cannot do. They are trying to subvert the system with bogus account names, but he kids caught on immediately.

Kudos to the folks who put this in place.


14 posted on 06/27/2009 8:14:26 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (The last time I looked, this is still Texas where I live.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Wow...that’s great. Someone needs to pull the Persian rug out from Khamenei’s feet.


15 posted on 06/27/2009 8:15:26 PM PDT by G8 Diplomat
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To: LeoWindhorse

It’s really sad how 0zer0 is so confused and timid on what to do. It really speaks to his character. None of what has happened in Iran was unexpected. It has been a textbook case of how oppressive regimes silence opposition and democracy movements.

First they rig the election. When protests start, they use force to control it. When things get out of hand, they put the opposition leaders under house arrest, ban journalists and cut information such as newspapers, radio, tv, internet, etc. When that fails, they hire thugs to beat demonstrators, and more thugs to guard opposition headquarters, universities, hospitals, media outlets, and foreign embassies. If that fails, they send in troops and start shooting. Then they jail opposition leaders and conduct sham trials. If that fails, they send in tanks and execute the opposition.

The only way to combat this is to move the opposition underground and make it root in more than just the capital city. The opposition has to coordinate work stoppages and slowdowns. Enlist allies in the government and government industries to sabotage the economy and choke off the funds the regime needs to pay for the thugs and army. The protests need to be widespread and hit and run to force the regime to spread resources out over large areas, requiring money and manpower. The constant need to keep resources on edge over a long time wears down the army and police and makes them much more likely to turn against the regime, which is crucial for a successful revolution.

Nothing will be accomplished by talking to “I’m A Nut Job” and 0zer0 needs to just admit he was wrong and at least make an effort at covert action to help the resistance. If not, then this will just be another Tienamen Square.

Barrack Hussein Obama = The Neville Chamberlain of our time!


16 posted on 06/27/2009 9:36:53 PM PDT by SDShack (Obamanomics = Economics + Moronics)
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To: SDShack

you should also mention equiping them for an ied campaign
to selectively take out the entire mullah leadership ,
similar to what they have been employing against us in iraq .
Two can play that game .


17 posted on 06/27/2009 9:56:33 PM PDT by LeoWindhorse
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To: wk4bush2004

SHAME on our government for just talking about the crisis. SHAME on millions of Americans for their apathy! ................................. The same thing occurred in 1956 and 1969 Hungary and Poland. Sometimes we just can’t go in and add gas to the flames. Lets hope the Good Iranians do as the Poles and the Ukrainians did. The less bloodshed the better. My Iranian friends want to see the Mullahs hung on cranes for all to see. Especially all those brought into Iran by the Ayatollah Khomeini.


18 posted on 06/27/2009 10:05:50 PM PDT by Bringbackthedraft (Democrats have nothing to fear but Palin being herself.)
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To: Bringbackthedraft

My bad. 1969 was Czechoslovakia, not Poland.


19 posted on 06/27/2009 10:15:58 PM PDT by Bringbackthedraft (Democrats have nothing to fear but Palin being herself.)
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To: STE=Q
I've got the perfect nickname for our president this July 4th...

Anti-freedom Obama

20 posted on 06/28/2009 12:27:53 AM PDT by TheThinker (America doesn't have a president. It has a usurper.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
One problem of Islamic ruling regimes is that they are inherently unstable over the long term, due to their own internal demographics.

In Islam, a wealthy and powerful person can have multiple wives, and they generally do. With these wives, they have many children. King Abdullah of Saudi has 22 children. Ali Khamenei of Iran has 6 children. Osama bin Laden's dad had 54 children.

When these children grow up, they have an expectation of continuing in the lifestyle of their parents. But that lifestyle is based on the revenue stream from oil exports, which is finite. Each succeeding generation can expect to get a thinner slice of the pie.

Members of the ruling elite have an incentive to try to maintain or increase their slice of the pie by eliminating some other faction of the ruling elite, and taking their share.

21 posted on 06/28/2009 8:26:16 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money -- Thatcher)
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To: PapaBear3625
Members of the ruling elite have an incentive to try to maintain or increase their slice of the pie by eliminating some other faction of the ruling elite, and taking their share.

Your conclusion(above)seems well founded.

Very Interesting post!

STE=Q

22 posted on 06/28/2009 10:33:14 AM PDT by STE=Q ("These are the times that try men's souls" ... Thomas Paine)
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To: STE=Q
In Islam, the laws for inheritance were set down by Mohammad, and therefore are unchangeable. Mo's sayings are laid down in the Quran and the Hadiths, with laws of inheritance in Chapter 80. (The preceding link is to a site maintained by the Muslim Students Association of USC, and can be presumed to be authoritative).

The bottom line is that how the father's estate is to be divided among the sons and daughters means that the next generation gets a specified fraction. When they die, their descendants get their split. If the father's income is based on a fixed source which does not grow over time, then unless he limits himself to one or two kids, he inheritors will find themselves with a smaller piece of the pie than he enjoyed, and will not be able to enjoy their father's standard of living.

In Medieval Europe, the nobility avoided this situation with the doctrine of primogenitor, where the eldest surviving son got the land and title, and the other kids had to find their own way in the world, either by marriage, conquest, or joining the Church as priest or nun. Even then, the nobles were continually fighting among themselves to expand their fortunes.

In the Arab world, they found themselves after WW2 with all this unearned wealth in the form of oil deposits under their feet. The oil is going to run out eventually, they know it, and they fear what happens when they can no longer support their people in the style they've become accustomed to.

In the short term, they've held off the inevitable by exporting their underclasses to Europe, but the European welfare state is going to collapse soon (on the order of 5 years)

23 posted on 06/28/2009 11:35:22 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money -- Thatcher)
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To: PapaBear3625

Thanks for your post.

... Very enlightening!

STE=Q


24 posted on 06/28/2009 12:14:43 PM PDT by STE=Q ("These are the times that try men's souls" ... Thomas Paine)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Rather enlightening and interesting information regarding the Iranian political structure. Perhaps things regarding ownership of the regime where starting to unfold back in 2006 as suggested. But regardless of what actions are taken by who, it would appear there is little hope for a total change in how their system is constructed other then a military coup that would favor re-writing the constitution along more fully democratic parlimentary government or even a Republic say similar to what the USA enjoys.
Then setting up a system of nation wide voting for popular candidates.
All the bad apples along with their oppressive support groups must be ousted in order for Iran's populace to become free in the sense we take for granted.
25 posted on 06/28/2009 2:50:35 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle
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To: PapaBear3625

You make some well ground points that should never be ignored as how the Islamic states via. their monarchies or other forms of controlled government operate.


26 posted on 06/28/2009 3:50:04 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
""This move is meant to protect the regime from the dangers that threaten it,"
It always comes down to those powers that be that are protecting their interests. They cleverly put together a regime backed up by in their eyes a constitution that gives them the right to kill, steal, deceive, and brutally rule over their subjects. The stupid so called students of way back when where how should I say. Dopes. As stupid as half the American voters most probably.
27 posted on 06/28/2009 3:58:57 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle
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To: Marine_Uncle
After 9/11, I made a point of reading the Quran cover-to-cover, and have read large sections of the Hadith and other Islamic references. I figure that we're in a fight with these guys, and it's a good idea to understand where they're coming from, and what they're likely to do.

I very much recommend people reading the Hadiths, especially Chapter 52 (Jihad) and 82 (Punishment of Disbelievers at War with Allah and His Apostle)

28 posted on 06/28/2009 4:13:51 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money -- Thatcher)
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To: PapaBear3625
I had partly accomplished likewise during the mid 80's. Of course wading through some books on Islam, as well as comparisons between Islam and Christianity etc., reading downloaded versions of the Quran and Hadiths etc..
Nothing that has come to past has surprised me, including so many very intense gulfs between the various sects of the cult.
Lastly. However, with such a hard work schedule and little time often other then trying to parse FR articles, I have little time to become yet again absorbed in these studies.
3:30AM to be at work at 5PM, one day, another day having to stay till 11PM sort of kicks one's brain into low gear, when one walks, runs, twists about for eight hours on hard concrete floors and has to answer hour after hour of questions by folks who have not a clue as to how to wire/rewire their homes, along with a vast array of electrical questions and others things daily at a very busy Home Depot. It is a wonder I find the time and brain power to respond to you good folks as often as I do. So regiment study is out of the question at this point.
29 posted on 06/28/2009 4:28:03 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle
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