This is still impossible to predict. The citizens are not armed, or it would not be like this.
All it would take for this to go-off is for 1 Military commander to defect. It would then be on.
Or outside arms smuggled in, would bring on a gorilla war that could escilate.
The election was clearly a fraud, and everyone knows it.
Islamic governments like Communism can only exist with repression. Nature of the beast.
Freedom is incompatible with dictatorial government.
Dig up the many past threads to wit “what good is a handgun against an army” and other “all I need to win is a rock to obtain heavy artillery with” posts. The ability is there; the will is not.
Indeed, one commander (with willing troops) defecting would change everything. This is often considered critical to a revolution’s success: that the oppressor’s forces not be uniformly loyal.