Posted on 07/05/2009 6:29:31 PM PDT by forkinsocket
BEIRUT: Days after officials in Washington announced that a US ambassador would soon be sent to Syria, reports have emerged of an upcoming Syrian-Saudi Arabian summit to be held in Damascus that could include Lebanon. Conventional wisdom holds that any improvement in Syrian-Saudi ties generally contributes to increased stability in Lebanon, and according to experts on Levantine politics, Lebanon may already be benefiting from those nations' thawing ties and a revamped US policy in the region.
"Any relief or stabilization in the Syrian-Saudi relationship will be positively reflected in the Lebanese political life," Chafik Masri, an international law professor at the American University of Beirut, told The Daily Star Wednesday.
"The tension between Syria and the regional competitors and the international players now has some relief," he added.
On Sunday, Saudi Prince Abdel-Aziz bin Abdullah and Information Minister Abdel-Aziz Khoja, a former ambassador to Beirut, visited Syrian President Bashar Assad, and regional media have report widely on a likely meeting between Assad and Saudi King Abdullah on July 16.
According to a number of sources cited in the pan-Arab press, that summit, an indication of dŽtente between Damascus and Riyadh, could also include Premier-designate Saad Hariri.
Syrian-Saudi relations appeared to publically improve following summits in Kuwait and Doha in January and March of this year, following Israel's three-week bombardment of the Hamas-run Gaza Strip. In the wake of those summits Lebanon witnessed a relatively calm election campaigning season and peaceful parliamentary elections.
Following the elections, won handily by the March 14 coalition, Hariri, the leader of that coalition and the Future Movement was quickly tapped for the premiership and charged with forming a government.
Masri said the easing of regional tensions had given Lebanon more "flexibility" and "room for compromise" to build a new government. Ahead of the Syrian-Saudi summit, he added, many believe that a cabinet will be formed, Hariri will be invited to the Damascus meeting and the US will resume full diplomatic ties with Syria.
The US recalled its ambassador from Syria in 2005 after the assassination of Hariri's father, Rafik Hariri, a former premier himself. His murder was widely blamed on Syria, although Damascus has denied any involvement.
Syria expert Joshua Landis, co-director of Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and the founder of the popular Syria Comment Web site and newsletter, said the current movement in the region and its effects on Lebanon had a historical precedent.
"If we look at the 1990s as model ... Saudi Arabia and Syria worked hand in glove and you got the flowering of Lebanon, under Hariri oversight with a Syrian security presence ... There was an understanding. America, of course, was a part of this," he said.
But this "triangular entente" collapsed under former US President George W. Bush, who tried "to pull Lebanon out of the Syrian sphere of influence," he noted. "What we are seeing is the re-establishment, under [US President Barack] Obama of the triangular entente of the 1990s." According to Landis, in the past, Syria used Lebanon as a tool or instrument to push various interests. The Bush administration, he said, tried to reverse that method and use Lebanon against Syria, with no success.
Now Syria may be more interested in the broader ramifications of Obama's regional peace strategy.
"Syria wants to move ahead and get beyond Lebanon. So it needs to neutralize Lebanon, put Lebanon in the freezer," Landis said, adding that in this sense Damascus wants to maintain the status quo and was satisfied with Lebanon's election results.
The country wants to play an integral role in the Obama administration's comprehensive Middle East peace strategy, Landis noted, and needs Saudi Arabia as a partner. "From a Syrian point of view, it's very important that the Saudi Arabians and Syrians come together," he said.
"Saudi Arabia needs Syria too," Landis added. "The only strategy against Iran is one of Arab unity."
What Lebanon's position is in a broader push for regional peace is not entirely clear. The resumption of US-Syrian and Syrian-Saudi ties are expected to help bridge Lebanon's internal divisions, but the country's security could still be manipulated by foreign influences.
Without substantive action, that satisfies Syria and Saudi Arabia and is accepted by Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, "all of this is going to be like band-aids," Landis said.
Moreover, the rapprochement between regional powers can contribute to stability and security in Lebanon but it can't ensure it.
Former Ambassador Abdullah Bou Habib, the executive director of the Issam Fares Center for Lebanon, noted that despite current geo-political trends, the burden of political and sectarian divisiveness ultimately rests with the Lebanese.
"There is no doubt that any agreement between Syria and Saudi Arabia would close much of the gap between the Lebanese," he said. "But it does not close it completely."
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