Posted on 07/06/2009 9:29:19 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob
There are two aspects of Governor Palin's decision to resign now, which have not been competently discussed, or discussed at all, in the main stream media. One is based on the map, the other is based in American political history.
Regarding the map: I have two, immediate sources to know how long it takes, with what sort of wearing down from the journey itself, to travel to and from Alaska. One is my cousin who is a leading labor lawyer, and who went from Atlanta to Alaska frequently when the Aleska Pipeline was under construction.
The other is my son-in-law's brother who was until recently the Agent In Charge for the FBI in Alaska. His trips home were often to North Carolina. The bottom line is this. In going to Alaska, or coming from that state to the "lower 48" for any purpose, two days are lost in travel for each trip, and there is recovery time to be sharp and on your toes in addition.
Throw in the fact that at least two of the phony, and dismissed, ethics charges made against Governor Palin were based on the fact that she was "out of the state" in order to appear or speak at events in the lower 48. It is well known that Governors and Senators who habitually run for President are often absent from their states and their constituents (unless they come from Iowa or New Hampshire to begin with).
The travel restraints are far worse for Alaskans and Hawaiians than residents of any other states. The result is that no one can function in a full time government position in Alaska or Hawaii, while playing a significant, permanent role in politics in the rest of the nation.
The political history aspect refers to Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey. Both built their national base which gave them their respective party nominations for President by traveling the US for years on the rubber chicken circuit. They supported and raised money for hundreds of state and local candidates. They had good results doing that, much better than similar efforts by Bill Clinton, to choose a name not entirely at random.
Bottom line: I think Sarah Palin is planning a similar, grassroots effort to those of Nixon and Humprey. I think she knows that she needs to show immediate results in the 2010 elections for the House and Senate, with candidates she supports usually winning. She has to start now, rather than just wait to run for President or Vice President in 2012.
I think she recognized that it was impossible for her to be a Governor, a mother and a wife, and an active speaker in the lower 48, all at once. So, she left the least important of those three tasks in the hands of her selected Lt. Governor.
The proof of what I posit will come on 12 September, 2009, if Palin is the most important speaker at the Rally on the Mall in Washington. My analysis is correct, if she begins her speech then and there with words like these: "My fellow Americans, I come before you today not as a Republican, not as a Democrat, but as an American who is deeply, deeply concerned about the wrong directions this nation is taking because of failures by politicians in both of those ancient political parties...."
Congressman Billybob
John / Billybob
if she is planning to start touring the country making stump speeches, this logic makes a lot of sense
I bet she starts on July 27th, going door to door in Iowa talking to REAL Americans... with Piper by her side, I’m sure.
Commercial plane connections between the East Coast and Alaska leave more that something to be desired, particularly if you are headed for Point Barrow. There also is a time difference which complicates operations.
What you said about travel is also correct. Even with her own aircraft in an airforce one configuration (full reclining bed), the constant travel and changes in time zones can take a toll on the body-- a toll which will be much less if she decides to be Alaska's senator or, more likely, just a private citizen with a PAC and a radio show based in the lower 48.
John / Billybob
Agreed. And then she should take out a page from Jimmy Carter’s book and stay over supporters homes for the next two yrs while visiting the lower 48. Saves money and good PR. And she and Todd can start with my extra room !!
Hi Congressman! Please see these posts. I think this also adds to her arsenal. And yes, I am interested in finding a job in writing for the right politician. (wink nod)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2286514/posts?page=11#11
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2286518/posts?page=12#12
Interesting observations. Couple that with the ethics complaints about her lower 48 travel and it does make sense.
Governor Palin is known to be sitting on half a million in lawyers fees from fighting ethics complaints.
Governor Palin can earn the money to retire that debt through speaking fees, along with working to build her base. And, she won’t have to worry about further complaints.
Sarah is scheduled as the guest speaker at Reagan Library in August - pretty good place to start her successful run in 2012!
I think you are right on the money. It doesn’t do her any good to lay the whole plan down today for all to see. Otherwise, the State Run Media will be blowing up the road in front of her.
If Obama can be an “author” and a “community organizer” and claim that his “national campaign” gave him “executive experience?
Palin can be an AUTHOR (who wrote her own book without the help of terrorist William Ayers)
Palin can be an ORGANIZER (but we are better than the criminals and Marxists at Acorn)
Palin can run a NATIONAL CAMPAIGN to take back Congress.
If Palin is successful, in her 2010 efforts, nothing anyone says about her stepping down, as Gov, will amount to a hill of beans.
Besides -— if McCain had WON, Palin would have resigned as Governor of Alaska, back in January, right?
I don’t think she has to run against Republicans.
She’s already considered enough her own woman with a focus on reform and small government as it is, no need for her to tear down her even reluctant allies in Congress. Also, people voted for Obama as a protest against wayward Republicanism anyway, and are ready to cry ‘uncle’ as it is.
In none of his national campaigns did Reagan aim his fire at the errors of Nixon and the Rockefeller Republicans of his time. He had to beat them in the primaries, for sure—but he did so with a positive, confident message of ideas and ideals.
She could move to NY and run for the Senate.
Don’t they have an opening for 2010?
lol
[I wonder whether Hillary regrets giving up her Senate seat for the SoS seat?]
|
I think you analysis and deductions are spot on.
And, I very much hope to see citizen Palin address the crowd in DC on 9/12.
I think she was left with some pretty unattractive options, if she played by the normal “rules”.
1) Go for re-election, planning to serve the whole term (i.e., no 2012 run) — it would give her the “experience” feather (but we saw how unimportant that actually is) but 2016 might be too late (in multiple respects), and she’d be subject to the continued ankle-biting of bogus ethics complaints while having the travel issues you note working against her in building a national presence.
2) As above, but not intending on serving the whole term, which is what the Alaskan voters would expect. Between that and a hostile press, an Allenish “macaca” moment ruins her permanently, both at home and across the country.
3) Not running for re-election as governor, but going for the US Senate. Too many negatives here to even discuss — all of the ones below plus the swamp of the Senate is the last place she ought to be if she’s serious about 2012 or 2016.
4) Not running for any Alaskan office. She unshackles herself from the “ethics” garbage and the travel restrictions. But she leaves unanswered questions about her ability to get elected in the hostile environment she is going to face.
Now, personally, I would have chosen #2. Which explains why I’m not in politics, I guess, as the safe and conventional approach is probably what is least called for in the situation. Gov. Palin chose option #4, but with an added twist, which turns it from a somewhat risky conventional move to a massively risky unconventional move.
Assuming she’s planning on running in 2012 (which looks to be a safe assumption), it comes down to the question of whether freeing herself from the restrictions of the governorship outweigh the negatives created by “quitting”. If she’s following the plan of being a major factor in the 2010 mid-term elections, then the answer is yes. If she can deliver.
It’s a bold gamble, but the big prizes are won by the ones willing to take risks. Of course, no one ever talks about the ones who gamble and lose. :)
I think you’re correct, whether it is 2012 or beyond.
Not mentioned yet is Sarah Palin is writing a book and she will need and want to promote her book which will take time and the book will help define her positions on issues and events: past, present and future.
I believe she will, indeed, work for Republican candidates which helps them fund raise but also makes these candidates beholding to her as well as gives her exposure across the country without the fear and hassle of facing ethics complaints at home. That means it’s a win-win for everyone involved as she builds her base and increases conservative support.
I’ve got an extra bedroom in Gotham.... ;)
How MUCH MORE HONORABLE for her to resign than to do what Obama did. He Took the Illinois senatorial paycheck while campaigning.
Tammy Bruce, by the way, is excellent today regarding this topic. (Since Rush is gone !)
This is one smart women, who is also focused and courageous. I’ll be happy to see all the pundits, left AND right, end up with egg on their face.
Brilliant observation.
“I think she recognized that it was impossible for her to be a Governor, a mother and a wife, and an active speaker in the lower 48, all at once. So, she left the least important of those three tasks in the hands of her selected Lt. Governor.”
The Great One Mark Levin had simular observations on his Friday show. There is much for her to do if she wants to be a serious contender and go up against the old Republican beltway horses. Collect pledges, Build and then congeal her base, stay involved in the lower 48, and continue to draw tens of thousands to her her speak. She can do none of this in Alaska.
The Mark Levin show from July 3rd is Worth listening to.
If McCain had won, the media would harping about a depression just around the corner. McCain’s approval ratings would be lower than Bush’s. Plus the media would be pounding on McCain to stop listening to stupid Palin’s advice and appoint Joe Lieberman as Veep. Knowing McCain, he would do exactly that to get some media praise.
These people who want to keep firing at the Republican Party need to learn how to aim!
Lets take out some of our RINO problems in the primary, to be sure, -— but, like Reagan, we need to present a POSITIVE public image.
This constant carping about how the Republicans have failed is much like Obama apologizing to the world about America.
STFU and get to work, folks!
Lead
Follow
or
Get the HELL out of the way!
As an engineer who has made his career on thinking “outside the box”, I must compliment you on your innovative and cogent analysis, FRiend.
The travel aspect is particularly interesting.
Do you know what day, exactly? The Reagan Library is fairly local to me, and I would like to go if I can.
I agree with your assessment completely: Sarah CANNOT compete in the ABCNNBCBS news cycle if she needs 18 to 30 hours to make one speech allowing itself only 2 hours in front of the public discussing policy.
Her own show on Fox or CNN? Even better. And that too cannot readily/realistically be done from Alaska.
Recovering the money from speech and fees? Can only be done in the lower 48 states.
I agree.
Sarah was being boxed in. She saw an opening and ran for daylight.
I have the feeling that Obama and Axelrod are dazed and confused.
Marked to read later
Heck, I’ve got a very famous house on Watts Bar Lake in Spring City, TN we only use two weekends a month. 5 bedrooms, 5 baths... she could use it !!! It would be my honor.
Makes more sense than reading self-fulfilling liberal tea leaves, like everyone else in the backstabbing GOP is doing.
Nixon was not running, but Reagan did run against the policies of Carter - the man in office screwing up the country. Same thing happening here. Run against the crap Obama did, BUT, present ones own platform of positives.
We keep getting these attacks on her from folks who claim to be Rep. Could it be that this is "payback" from friends of the folks that she outed for their coruption and cronyism?
Just wondering...
“[I wonder whether Hillary regrets giving up her Senate seat for the SoS seat?”
Hillary who?? ;-)
Yes, I know Nixon wasn’t running—sloppy sentence construction on my part! But agreed, the target is Obama and I think Palin knows that more clearly than most.
I've made the trip from DC to Alaska and back, and it is ROUGH, at least 9 hours in the air if you go non-stop from BWI to Anchorage, more if you layover in Minneapolis or Seattle.
Most people have absolutely no comprehension as to exactly how far away Alaska really is, or how big it is.
I’ve seen you on a thing or two you were dead wrong about.
In this case, I think you’re spot on.
Sarah Palin to Orlando to campaign for Marco Rubio: 11+ hours. (1 hour to anchorage, unknown wait time, 9.5 hours to Orlando).
A full day in the air just to make a single campaign stop. Untenable. I have been saying this for 3 days now. Nice for someone else to agree. Enough of the bashing. Obama could keep his Senate seat and just play hookie in the Senate because he was 90 minutes from Nashua and an hour from Des Moines. It is obvious why she was compelled to step down.
I think you nailed it!
Congressman, IMO you are spot on. I can’t wait to hear Sarah say it, “My fellow Americans ......”! I can see her smile right now.
Read this later.
That's the kicker, right there. If her support elects some fresh faces, she will announce in the following January (creating a stronger "reformer angle" by re-establishing a more normal campaign-to-election cycle) .
If her efforts gain nil, she'll slide into some comfortable consulting and part-time punditry.
My personal speculation? I think Levin knew the announcement was coming.
“Besides -? if McCain had WON, Palin would have resigned as Governor of Alaska, back in January, right?”
You know, that’s the first time I’ve seen this pointed out. Good point!!!
I bet Rush did too.
Your reasoning supports speculations that contradict no physical laws. I couldn’t fail to disagree with you more.
Ouch! Brain cramp!
Ronaldus Magnus did lots of radio shows during his “interim” prioor to being elected POTUS.
Very wise, you wascally wabbit ;-)
Good deductions, as always, from Billybob
I think you’re exactly right! bttt
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.