Skip to comments.Placebo Effects: Part 1 (market & economy)
Posted on 08/09/2009 9:09:07 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Placebo Effects: Part 1
By: Satyajit Das
Botanical commentators are finding green shoots. The astronomically minded have seen glimmers. The meteorologically minded have spoken about the storms abating. Strong rallies in equity and debt markets have confirmed the recovery for the true believers. The Global Financial Crisis ("GFC") crisis is over!
It is useful to remember Winston Churchills observation after the British expeditionary forces escape from Dunkirk: "[Britain] must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory". There may be confusion between stabilisation and recovery.
The green shoots theory is based on a slowdown in the rate of decline in key economic indicators, improvements in the financial system, unprecedented government support for the banking system, near-zero interest rates and large fiscal stimulus packages. The recovery of emerging markets and a renewed belief in Decoupling (Release 2.0) also underpin hopes of a swift return to growth.
Receiving the Messengers
The puzzling thing is that real economy indicators continue to be poor. Growth forecast for 2009 have steadily deteriorated with world growth expected to be negative 2.00 to 3.00% with especially poor prospects for Japan and the Euro Zone. Industrial output, employment, consumption, investment and global trade continue to be weak. Even China expected to grow between 6% and 8% in 2009 experienced a fall in exports of over 20% over the last year.
(Excerpt) Read more at eurointelligence.com ...
just think if the press industry was even half as positive after bush 41’s first term, we may never have seen Clinton.
“...just think if the press industry was even half as positive after bush 41s first term, we may never have seen Clinton.”
Man, now I’m REALLY depressed, LOL! ;)