The Role of the Department of Defense During A Flu Pandemic

The types of defense support which would likely be in greatest demand during a flu pandemic are contained in the Implementation Plan and the NRF’s Emergency Support Function (ESF) # 8, Public Health and Medical Response Annex .28 A review of these documents indicates an anticipated demand for the types of support from DOD listed below. Note, however, that DOD’s ability to support these requests would be limited by its national defense and force protection responsibilities. • providing disease surveillance and laboratory diagnostics • transporting response teams, vaccines, medical equipment, supplies, diagnostic devices, pharmaceuticals and blood products • treating patients • evacuating the ill and injured • processing and tracking patients • providing base and installation support to federal, state, local, and tribal agencies • controlling movement into and out of areas, or across borders, with affected populations • supporting law enforcement • supporting quarantine enforcement • restoring damaged public utilities • providing mortuary services

H1N1 is not the threat, even in worst case scenario. Everybody is planning for H5N1, with possible 30M US dead, as the big one.

However, what DoD is planning will not be how it would go down. To start with, with an international pandemic, the first DoD operational response would be to transport personnel and their families from around the world back to the US, into quarantine. This could include tens of thousands of US citizens around the world, military and government personnel, being flown to military airbases, like Pope AFB in North Carolina.

While they were doing this, nearby Fort Bragg would be erecting tent compounds to receive people for the quarantine.

If things were particularly bad in Mexico, central and South America, and the Caribbean, the “southern front” military bases, Pendleton, Irwin, Huachuca, Hood, Bliss, Polk and Benning, would be tasked to prevent refugees coming up here.

Inside the US, the military would be at the beck and call of the CDC in Atlanta. National Guards would handle most State activities.

And just because there is a flu epidemic, doesn’t mean that other natural disasters won’t hit. And *that* would probably open a military response with emergency equipment and help.

I truly doubt there is anything wrong with the H1N1 vaccine. At least intentionally. The problem lies in the fact that until recently, there were only one or two US influenza vaccine manufacturers. Since the typical vaccine was a “best guess” of the three most likely candidate viruses for the next flu season, production capability of 30 million vaccinations in six months was acceptable productivity. Enough would be ready by the time the flu hit.

To prepare for the H5N1 influenza, all the stops have been pulled out, and all the major drug manufacturers have been persuaded, firmly, to produce vaccine. Because there is no immunity to H5N1, not even limited immunity, this means that as soon as the “actual” pandemic virus has been discovered, a sample will have a priority on the fastest US aircraft available, to the CDC in Atlanta. They, in turn, will distribute samples to the drug companies for “war surge” production.

This, on a scale ten times larger than previous production, and “hell bent for leather” speed, will still not be as fast as the disease itself, which will be killing many Americans before the first H5N1 vaccine is available. So there is zero tolerance for production problems, and a full scale test of the system is needed.

This is where the H1N1 vaccine production comes in handy, as a “dress rehearsal” of vaccine production and distribution. Errors in the production system will be trouble-shot. And even if a few thousand Americans die, mostly because of bad reactions to the vaccine, which does happen, it will be an “acceptable loss” compared to when the H5N1 Avian flu hits.

I might add that no matter what happens when the H5N1 hits, there may be up to a year and a half of secondary H5N1 attacks, from mutations of the initial epidemic. Many of these will also be deadly. Then H5N1 will lose much of its virulence and become like a typical influenza.

But the infrastructure that has been built will be vital for vaccine for the next decade, until the threat has finally been reduced.

You may opt now to not be vaccinated for H1N1. However, with the H5N1, the vaccine will be more valuable than gold.

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