Posted on 08/13/2009 2:07:55 PM PDT by FromLori
The global economy still faces turmoil as government try to figure out how to move out of fiscal rescue packages, which could lead to another two downturns, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Norbert Walter said Thursday.
In addition, nervousness on the part of major dollar holders could pressure the greenback and lead to a very worrying 2010, Walter said.
Norbert said recently in research notes “the world is in trouble.”
“I believe that the rescue packages brought on have been so costly for so many governments that the exit from this fiscal policy will be very painful, very painful indeed,” he said. “Some of us are already talking about a W-shaped recovery. I’d probably talk about a triple-U-shaped recovery because there are so many stumbling blocks here to get out of this.”
“There are a few countries that have not dismissed people, they had a dramatic drop in their sales but they kept on people because they believed the recession would be very shallow,” Walter said. “They now have to fire people. That will increase unemployment and they therefore, of course, may be endangering retail sales in some countries.”
And while the White House struggles with issues like health care and puts a fiscal policy exit strategy on the back burner, there are big concerns of about the direction of the U.S. dollar.
“I’m deeply worried about the worries of those investors who have invested a lot, really a lot into the dollar” like the Chinese, Japanese, Arabs and Russians, he said.
“If they have second thoughts about the quality of this currency then the dollar is bound to weaken” which means higher long-term interest rates for a country where government debt is approaching 100 percent of gross domestic product, he said.
If that happens, “2010 could be a worrisome
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
This is Obama’s fault. They won’t cut spending, capital gains, allow energy development, etc.
The world has a fever...and the only prescription is MORE COWBELL!
The World’s In Trouble.
Deutsche Bank Chief Economist.
Buy Lots of Ammo.
Wonder if they knew that the title of the article was 2/3rds of a Haiku?
But I thought the recession was over? Well, I guess this is why we need healthcare reform and cap and trade: Obama says both will ensure our nations financial stability! /s
The big German financial services companie like DB and Allianz are pretty sharp. they have seen hyperinflation, depressions and usurpers destroy their country before.
The big German financial services companie like DB and Allianz are pretty sharp. they have seen hyperinflation, depressions and usurpers destroy their country before.
There is no point in living any more. I’ve committed suicide 78 times this year just on your posts alone.
Deutsche Bank
Premium corporate member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Hmmm?
Seems like the one group who would know more than anyone about this economic situation.
The World’s In Trouble.
Deutsche Bank Chief Economist.
We Are Gonna Die.
The World’s In Trouble.
Deutsche Bank Chief Economist.
Grab some chick and xcrew.
The World’s In Trouble.
Deutsche Bank Chief Economist.
Drink until you puke.
The World’s In Trouble.
Deutsche Bank Chief Economist.
No point to living.
Your comment made me commit suicide three more times.
Cut it out.
The problem that the dollar holders have is what to switch into. The liquidity is not there and a selloff would only hurt them.
Be wary of Allianz we took out our Master 5 early and paid a penalty because they are pretty broke.
Jim Cramer of The Street who is known for his CNBC show “Mad Money” and stock market quotes and investment advice could drive someone Mad. Worse with the questionable advice and shoddy fact checking that takes place on The Street following that kind of advice could end with you living on “The Street”.
On April 3rd this was posted on his site.
The life insurance industry has $214 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities, according to new data from SNL Financial, which tracks the portfolios of more than 800 life insurers. More than a third of that amount, or $86 billion, is invested in bonds rated A or less. The issuers of lower-rated bonds are more likely to default, Fitch says.
Fifteen of the top 20 life insurers had more commercial mortgage-backed securities than capital and reserves. Five of those companies held more of the riskier bonds, the ones rated A or less. They were Allianz Life Insurance; Allstate Life Insurance; Manulife’s John Hancock Life Insurance; Genworth Life Insurance, part of Genworth Financial(GNW Quote - Cramer on GNW - Stock Picks); and Hartford Life Insurance, a unit of Hartford Financial Services(HIG Quote - Cramer on HIG - Stock Picks).
Allianz Life Insurance, which holds three times more of the lower-rated securities than capital and reserves, might be the most vulnerable. The company had $2.1 billion of capital and reserves and $6.9 billion of the less-desirable issues at year end.
Prudential Insurance Company of America, the largest insurance unit of Prudential Financial(PRU Quote - Cramer on PRU - Stock Picks), is the largest holder of commercial mortgage-backed securities with $11.7 billion but almost all of that amount is invested in AA-rated or AAA-rated bonds.
<>1 2Next >
Today if you go to check you will see a correction has been issued and my suspicious mind being what it is I noticed no numbers in the correction leaving me to wonder if someone brought this to the attention of Allianz and they threatened suit, or if Cramer is involved in a cover up of $4.8 billion of less desirable issues or lastly if he just gives Bad Advice
http://bluelori.blogspot.com/2009/04/following-jim-cramers-advice-may-leave.html
Be wary of Allianz we took out our Master 5 early and paid a penalty because they are pretty broke. They keep getting bailouts themselves and
Jim Cramer of The Street who is known for his CNBC show “Mad Money” and stock market quotes and investment advice could drive someone Mad. Worse with the questionable advice and shoddy fact checking that takes place on The Street following that kind of advice could end with you living on “The Street”.
On April 3rd this was posted on his site.
The life insurance industry has $214 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities, according to new data from SNL Financial, which tracks the portfolios of more than 800 life insurers. More than a third of that amount, or $86 billion, is invested in bonds rated A or less. The issuers of lower-rated bonds are more likely to default, Fitch says.
Fifteen of the top 20 life insurers had more commercial mortgage-backed securities than capital and reserves. Five of those companies held more of the riskier bonds, the ones rated A or less. They were Allianz Life Insurance; Allstate Life Insurance; Manulife’s John Hancock Life Insurance; Genworth Life Insurance, part of Genworth Financial(GNW Quote - Cramer on GNW - Stock Picks); and Hartford Life Insurance, a unit of Hartford Financial Services(HIG Quote - Cramer on HIG - Stock Picks).
Allianz Life Insurance, which holds three times more of the lower-rated securities than capital and reserves, might be the most vulnerable. The company had $2.1 billion of capital and reserves and $6.9 billion of the less-desirable issues at year end.
Prudential Insurance Company of America, the largest insurance unit of Prudential Financial(PRU Quote - Cramer on PRU - Stock Picks), is the largest holder of commercial mortgage-backed securities with $11.7 billion but almost all of that amount is invested in AA-rated or AAA-rated bonds.
<>1 2Next >
Today if you go to check you will see a correction has been issued and my suspicious mind being what it is I noticed no numbers in the correction leaving me to wonder if someone brought this to the attention of Allianz and they threatened suit, or if Cramer is involved in a cover up of $4.8 billion of less desirable issues or lastly if he just gives Bad Advice
http://bluelori.blogspot.com/2009/04/following-jim-cramers-advice-may-leave.html
Snicker maybe you should just not click on my posts anymore I am out to find the truth.
They seem to be trying to create a permanent recession
All part of the new world order plan to bring us down to share the misery! While these filthy leaders will share the gains the rest of us will share the pain.
Anyone who has taken a couple of college econ courses, or studied economic downturns in history class, can see this coming.
Like during the early Carter years, there will be a period of recover in the coming months. As soon as the recovery starts, there will be a huge spike in inflation, lead by energy prices — remember when gas doubled in price to $1 / gallon in 1979? This will result in serious inflation as well as job loss, or as Jimmy Carter called it, “malaise” or “stagflation.”
The Fed will then have to raise interest rates to soak up the $7 trillion that were put into the US economy — you you remember those 18% home loan rates and 22% car loan rates?
My advice... buy that very fuel efficient car (ie, the VW diesel Jetta), buy counter-cyclical stocks, or (I’d never thought I’d say this) gold. Because, gang, it’s a comin bigtime.
SNL as far as I know bought Weiss Research which did ratings on insurance and annuity companies.
The other companies you mentioned are not so good. The Allianz you are probably referring to is Allianz North America in MN. Allianz AG is the parent in Germany.
Their most recent quarter was very good.
http://www.allianz.com/en/press/news/financial_news/business_results/news_2009-08-07.html
They earned 1.9 billion euros.
Allianz North America also appears to be doing well.
I would have to look at their bond portfolio to double check what you have said. My impression is the only life/health companies that are more solid might be mutuals like NY Life and NW Mutual (Quiet company) and maybe other mutuals.
I am not shilling for Allianz but they also own Pimco, largest bond company in the world with Bill Gross.
Citizen Laz are you a fugitive from mandatory end of life counseling? Were your suicides approved by the Health Commissioner Czar?
Is he tootin’ again?
maybe you should just not click on my posts anymore
Well, Kit Kat, 
I think there are mounds 
of opinions on both sides. Some have a bit of honey 
in the opinion, others are just duds 
and are gloomy -- especially during this economic crunch 
. But whatever sour patches 
we personally go through, I think we should kiss 
and hang together like the three musketeers. 
After all, jobs are still good, and plentiful 
in my field, and I'm still making six figures.
There are many jealous felines out there.
Mmmmm,candy. ... D’oh!
You are a hero, not a 
But it isn't.
Deutsche Bank is two syllables, making "Deutsche Bank Chief Economist" eight syllables.
Lori, Lori, Lori.
Now you’ve gone and done it.
You’ve got the Laz on your azz.
You know he loves you. And he wants to have your baby. Actually he wants to EAT your baby - but that’s better left unsaid.
Lori? You know how to get a restraining order?
Better check up on that right away, mmm-kay?
lolol
Cerrtainly seems that way.
Only if you pronounce Chief like a southerner: Cheee-yif. :)
Shush, you.
Good info Lori. You really on top of it.
doy
chih
bank
cheef
eee
caw
nuh
mist
That’s eight.
Pimco is like saying Goldman Sachs.
Hey, you must have been busy committing suicide the other day when we were supposed to be getting hitched. What's up with that garbage??????????????? I stood there alone in my best lederhosen waiting for you and your llama-wives to show up and cart me up the aisle. In order not to waste the day, I had to settle for marrying the florist...and I'm pretty sure he's gay.
Am I psycho here, or did I get ditched?
B-o-o. H-o-o.
The caw is silent.
We haven’t seen your birth certificate yet. What are you hiding?
Only if you kill the crow.
Q.E.D.
That I'm not actually human?
Good. I have room for another husband in my harem. Thank goodness I still get to be psycho.........
And just why is it that no one has ever seen you and Barack Obama in the same room at the same time? Questions are growing. Are you really Barack Obama? Fess up.
I am Barack Obama's teleprompter.
That’s you with the long skinny neck?
“And while the White House struggles with issues like health care and puts a fiscal policy exit strategy on the back burner.”
That is a money line if I’ve ever seen one.
We have 10% unemployment and a quickly rising 1.5 Trillion dollar deficit, and Obama is spending all his time trying to convince everyone to submit to government run health care.
Barak Obama might be the most unqualified president in US history.
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