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Think Again: Asia's Rise
Foreign Policy ^ | June 22 2009 | Minxin Pei

Posted on 08/13/2009 3:53:01 PM PDT by BGHater

Don't believe the hype about the decline of America and the dawn of a new Asian age. It will be many decades before China, India, and the rest of the region take over the world, if they ever do.

"Power Is Shifting from West to East."

Not really. Dine on a steady diet of books like The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East or When China Rules the World, and it's easy to think that the future belongs to Asia. As one prominent herald of the region's rise put it, "We are entering a new era of world history: the end of Western domination and the arrival of the Asian century."

Sustained, rapid economic growth since World War ii has undeniably boosted the region's economic output and military capabilities. But it's a gross exaggeration to say that Asia will emerge as the world's predominant power player. At most, Asia's rise will lead to the arrival of a multi-polar world, not another unipolar one.

Asia is nowhere near closing its economic and military gap with the West. The region produces roughly 30 percent of global economic output, but because of its huge population, its per capita gdp is only $5,800, compared with $48,000 in the United States. Asian countries are furiously upgrading their militaries, but their combined military spending in 2008 was still only a third that of the United States. Even at current torrid rates of growth, it will take the average Asian 77 years to reach the income of the average American. The Chinese need 47 years. For Indians, the figure is 123 years. And Asia's combined military budget won't equal that of the United States for 72 years.

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: asia; china; geopolitics; india; minxinpei

1 posted on 08/13/2009 3:53:04 PM PDT by BGHater
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To: BGHater
Even at current torrid rates of growth, it will take the average Asian 77 years to reach the income of the average American. The Chinese need 47 years. For Indians, the figure is 123 years. And Asia's combined military budget won't equal that of the United States for 72 years.

That will certainly change now that we have Carter part 2 in charge as POTUS.

2 posted on 08/13/2009 3:55:09 PM PDT by Tamar1973 (http://koreanforniancooking.blogspot.com/)
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To: Tamar1973
No, it really won't. Nothing that happens in one term, short of world war, changes such things.

The masses of Asia are still poorer than dirt. There is a new middle class industrializing its coastlines, who have about reached the standard of living Americans enjoyed about 80 years ago.

In an ordinary non-recession year, the US adds new income - wealth per unit time indefinitely - of $400-500 billion in real terms, and twice that in nominal terms (before adjusting for price changes). China adds less than $300 billion. The absolute gap is still widening - their faster percentage rate is on a much lower base. Then they get to spread that new income over 3 times as many people...

3 posted on 08/13/2009 4:09:34 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: JasonC
Err, 4.3 times as many people actually... 3/4 of the new income for 4.3 times as many people, means each person's income goes up only 18% as much there as it does here. And wealth is the integral of that income.

The only way anyone can speak of anyone in Asia catching up is by heroically projecting exponential growth at unchanged rates generations into the future, which there is no particular reason to believe. They are freeing themselves from absolute poverty. That's the most that can be said.

4 posted on 08/13/2009 4:14:01 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: BGHater
Asia pays its bills. Asia doesn't borrow from future earnings to allow its citizens to simulate upper middle class lifestyles. Asia now offers a less corrupt, more level playing field than the USA. Asians are willing to work very hard to earn what they want. Asian poor are lean, smart and hungry - American poor are fat, dumb, and lazy. The trappings of wealth they have guilted away from their betters do not change this truth.

Smart Americans need to visit Asia for themselves and see the seismic shift that is occurring. No web commentary can adequately describe it.

There is no day imminent where China will declare - "Aha, we are your masters now!" It will simply become self-evident to the rest of the world in a few decades.

5 posted on 08/13/2009 4:21:32 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ("If you cannot pick it up and run with it, you don't really own it." -- Robert Heinlein)
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To: Mr. Jeeves

‘Asia now offers a less corrupt, more level playing field than the USA’

Dunno, what ‘Asia’ we are refering to. But I’ve lived and worked in SE Asia for years. They are corrupt and the Govt’s[Esp. Singapore] is by in large a police state with limited freedoms.

You can have ‘Asia’.


6 posted on 08/13/2009 4:35:14 PM PDT by BGHater (Insanity is voting for Republicans and expecting Conservatism.)
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To: Mr. Jeeves

The dynamics are set, as they were in America at the beginning of the 20th century: production has shifted to Asia with wealth along with it, global investment, new technologies, a growing middle class...

But the larger question is if Asian political culture can sustain the growth. The resources and economic contingencies of North/South America don’t necessarily point to U.S. dominance; something other than the “sea to shining sea” was at work, and the core matter for Asia is if it can grow without the political freedoms and protections of sustained capitalism.

China has weathered the first storms of capitalism, but it has hardly been tested. It has survived the Asian currency boom and the real estate boom here: can it survive its own excesses? That will be the test.


7 posted on 08/13/2009 4:36:44 PM PDT by nicollo (you're freakin' out!)
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To: BGHater
All of this is assuming that national borders remain constant over the next 70-100 years. However, anybody with an old globe or world map lying around the house can easily see that the borders of nations are shifting constantly.

Within the next century, our national borders will be dramtically different than they are today. For example, most of Europe is currently engaged in a process of becoming one borderless nation.

As well, Canada and perhaps even Mexico will be absorbed into the United States. I also see Australia and New Zealand following suit (joining the United States) as well as many Central and South American countries. Eventually the world will be reduced to five or six "super-nations".

8 posted on 08/13/2009 4:52:25 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I am 43 days away from outliving Judy Garland)
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To: SamAdams76
Your right about the changing of borders. China is changing the borders with Russia, migration, etc. and Europe seems to be dying as a whole.
9 posted on 08/13/2009 5:04:17 PM PDT by BGHater (Insanity is voting for Republicans and expecting Conservatism.)
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To: BGHater
But I’ve lived and worked in SE Asia for years. They are corrupt and the Govt’s[Esp. Singapore] is by in large a police state with limited freedoms.

Please explain how these "limited freedoms" affected your life in Singapore.

10 posted on 08/13/2009 5:23:06 PM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: Doe Eyes

I could not speak out against the Gov’t of Singapore, I had no freedom of speech, no more than 3 people could form a group[secret society], there was no place[except for one, only with a permit] where I could hear opposing views of the Gov’t, etc. Those are a few.


11 posted on 08/13/2009 5:30:04 PM PDT by BGHater (Insanity is voting for Republicans and expecting Conservatism.)
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To: BGHater
Also, the newspapers were Gov’t controlled.
12 posted on 08/13/2009 5:32:09 PM PDT by BGHater (Insanity is voting for Republicans and expecting Conservatism.)
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To: BGHater
I could not speak out against the Gov’t of Singapore, I had no freedom of speech, no more than 3 people could form a group[secret society], there was no place[except for one, only with a permit] where I could hear opposing views of the Gov’t, etc. Those are a few.

I go to Singapore often. I see groups of people everywhere. I worked with those people there and here in the USA. They have never complained about their country. They are capitalist and Singapore has some of the lowest personal and corporate taxes in the world.

The only restriction I found was chewing gum.

13 posted on 08/13/2009 5:37:29 PM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: BGHater
Pollution is worsening Asia's shortage of fresh water while air pollution exacts a terrible toll on health (it kills almost 400,000 people each year in China alone).

Is this for real? I knew the pollution was bad there, but the article gives no source for this alarming figure.

14 posted on 08/13/2009 6:08:17 PM PDT by thulldud (It HAS happened here!)
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To: thulldud
It appears 'accurate'.

Chinese Air Pollution Deadliest in World, Report Says-656K

China 'buried smog death finding'

15 posted on 08/13/2009 6:13:35 PM PDT by BGHater (Insanity is voting for Republicans and expecting Conservatism.)
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To: SamAdams76

That’s a step in the right direction. I’m a one-world, new world order kind of guy — with the twist that I’d like to see the world unified under the US Constitution. That is my version of utopia.


16 posted on 08/13/2009 6:20:18 PM PDT by Yardstick
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To: Yardstick

I’ve advocated for years having the United States expand by admitting more states to the Union. For some reason, many fellow conservatives here find that blasphemous. In fact, many of them actually advocate having existing states secede from the Union. I don’t understand why. So long as the new states adopt the Constitution, we should continue to admit more of them.


17 posted on 08/13/2009 6:36:51 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I am 43 days away from outliving Judy Garland)
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To: BGHater
Ah, so desu ka.

One thing noted in the article is that the Chinese use charcoal for indoor heating, and that contributes to the death rate. Industrial smog and fly ash take their time to hurt you, but a whole night breathing CO in a confined space will make for a very late rising in the am. Apparently deaths from this source are included in that figure.

18 posted on 08/13/2009 6:40:56 PM PDT by thulldud (It HAS happened here!)
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To: SamAdams76

Well, that’s the flaw in the plan: you might admit new states and wind up with a bunch of voters who don’t really understand or appreciate the Constitution — kind of like what has happened with California and New York. I don’t know how you would check the tendency towards deviationism.


19 posted on 08/13/2009 8:28:45 PM PDT by Yardstick
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To: SamAdams76

Like Baja California or Sonora? No way! (Imagine the tax burden). Its bad enough when 35% of them are already in the US anyway.


20 posted on 08/13/2009 10:08:44 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (Saul Alinsky. Read. Quote. Memorize. Adopt. Open this wonderful can of whoop-a*s back in THEIR faces)
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To: JasonC

Quite right — only by 2050 would the two big nations of China and India bring the majority of their population out of poverty.


21 posted on 08/14/2009 6:30:27 AM PDT by Cronos (Ceterum censeo, Mecca et Medina delendae sunt + Jindal 2K12)
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To: Mr. Jeeves
China will declare - "Aha, we are your masters now!"

Won't happen - Japan, India, Russia, Vietnam won't let that happen.
22 posted on 08/14/2009 6:35:37 AM PDT by Cronos (Ceterum censeo, Mecca et Medina delendae sunt + Jindal 2K12)
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To: SamAdams76
As well, Canada and perhaps even Mexico will be absorbed into the United States. I also see Australia and New Zealand following suit (joining the United States) as well as many Central and South American countries. Eventually the world will be reduced to five or six "super-nations".

You're right about the former: Canada and Mexico will most definitely be part of the USA for better or worse by the end of this century. the US naturally expands.

I don't see Australia joining the US, they may be carved up by India, China and Indonesia.

New Zealand will like to stay separate.

And I don't see any Central or S American countries joining the US
23 posted on 08/14/2009 6:38:37 AM PDT by Cronos (Ceterum censeo, Mecca et Medina delendae sunt + Jindal 2K12)
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To: Mr. Jeeves
Asia now offers a less corrupt, more level playing field than the USA.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Have you ever avtually lived in SE Asia?

Less corrupt? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Corruption in SE Asia is a way of life. From the lowliest civil servant to the highest power in the land, they are ALL up for sale. The only thing distinguishing one from the other is price.
Of course, as with any rule there are exceptions but they are few and far between.

24 posted on 08/14/2009 6:44:10 AM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Doe Eyes
Please explain how these "limited freedoms" affected your life in Singapore.

Spit in public on the grass, on the sidewalk, on a building and see what happens.
Chew gum in public and see what happens.

Yeh, you can walk down the sidewalk in the civilized portions of the city and not have to worry too much about being mugged but don't go outside certain areas or you may be toast, literally.

25 posted on 08/14/2009 6:47:28 AM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Just another Joe
Spit in public on the grass, on the sidewalk, on a building and see what happens.

Must be terrible to have to live someplace where you can't spit on buildings, but I'd be willing to give that up for their much lower tax rates.

26 posted on 08/14/2009 3:12:26 PM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: Doe Eyes
Must be terrible to have to live someplace where you can't spit on buildings, but I'd be willing to give that up for their much lower tax rates.

If you'd like to give up liberties for a lower tax rate then be my guest, immigrate.

27 posted on 08/15/2009 7:56:15 AM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Just another Joe
If you'd like to give up liberties for a lower tax rate then be my guest, immigrate.

Yes, I would be willing to give up spitting in public for lower taxes.

28 posted on 08/15/2009 10:20:59 AM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: Doe Eyes
Yes, I would be willing to give up spitting in public for lower taxes.

What else are you willing to give up for lower taxes.
We've now determined what is going on, we're just haggling over price now.

29 posted on 08/16/2009 11:07:51 AM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Just another Joe
What else are you willing to give up for lower taxes. We've now determined what is going on, we're just haggling over price now.

Since we have determined that you consider spitting to be a cherished freedom, do you also support shitting in public?

30 posted on 08/16/2009 5:48:19 PM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: Doe Eyes
do you also support shitting in public?

As long as no one else is harmed, sure.

Now that we have that question answered, would you like to answer my last question?

Look, I'm not going to bust your chops anymore than I already have.

If you would truly like to live with the rules that Singapore has in order to have a lower tax rate - then why don't you immigrate? Serious question.

31 posted on 08/16/2009 6:47:41 PM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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