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Democrats for the Republicans to target in 2010
Various polls ^ | 2009-08-14 | Dangus

Posted on 08/14/2009 2:30:22 PM PDT by dangus

Democrat seemingly doomed:

Nevada Much has been made about strong candidates passing up the opportunity to knock out Sen. Harry Reid. Big deal. GOP chairwoman and state senator Sue Lowden even handily defeats Reid, 48-42. All the cash in the world can’t help Reid escape the dishonor of being the most hated senator in America.

North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven has gained 39 points on Sen. Byron Dorgan in six months. Yeah, you read that right. Hoeven now leads by 17. Even if he doesn’t run, with Dorgan that unpopular, Duane Sand can kick a little well, sand, in his eyes.

Pennsylvania Specter is trailing Toomey by 12, but is still strong over primary opponent Sestak.

Connecticut (RINO ALERT!!!) Dodd trails liberal Republican, Rep. Simmons by 9, so this seat looks likely to be Republican… until Simmons senses the pendulum is swinging back towards the Democrats and pulls a Jim Jeffords.

Delaware (RINO ALERT!!!) Joe Biden’s replacement, Sen. Kaufman is retiring. Beau Biden is the would-be designated heir. Except that liberal Republican, Rep. Mike Castle is beating him by 21 points. Hey guys, can we nominate from the RIGHT of Arlen Specter and Jim Jeffords? I know it’s a liberal state, but I think the Caste-Biden poll indicates that a gay child porn producer in a KKK hood could beat Biden. Why waste the chance by nominating a Democrat for the Republican nod?

Arkansas Blanche Lincoln was already losing to assorted Republican no-names, back in March, before Arkansas felt the same way about Obama that Hillary feels about Bill. Just think what’ll happen if a real candidate emerges.

Colorado Unelected Bennet was already losing to Owens and Beauprez back when America loved Obama. Maybe a real Republican might decide to throw down?

Illinois (RINO ALERT!!!) Sen. Roland Burris has given up any hope of retaining this seat. Republican Rep. Mark Kirk is more liberal than Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski, who is far to the left of his father, former Rep. William Lipinski. But Rep. Kirk is far more likely than Janice Schackowski or anyone else likely to run for Obama’s old Senate seat.

Democrat endangered:

California (RINO ALERT?) Barbara Boxer leads former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by only four points, and is way under 50% (45-41).

Democrat vulnerable:

Indiana There’s a lack of any polling to demonstrate that Sen. Evan Bayh’s once soaring popularity is down to the vulnerable range, but he is very liberal and Indiana is fairly conservative. He can win, but he needs to play it smart.

Hawaii If Sen. Innouye, who will be 86, runs again, without showing declining mental or tempermental faculties, he should be able to beat even popular Gov. Linda Lingle. Otherwise, Lingle probably could win, if she’s up for a tough battle.

New York (RINO ALERT!!!) Liberal former governor George Pataki polls about even with Gillibrand, but the Republicans may not be her biggest worry.

Wisconsin Feingold’s popularity remains modest, but sufficient, but Obama’s is falling fast in Wisconsin (under 50%), so a smart campaigner might be able to dent Feingold’s reformist stance by linking them.

Safe… I guess:

Washington I’m disregarding a hunch that Sen. Murray should be vulnerable, but wouldn’t Rossi make for interesting surprise attack?

Oregon Oregon seems safely liberal. But so does Connecticut. But Wyden isn’t the scandal magnet Dodd is.

Mikulski Unless she gets caught on video having sex with a dead boy, she’s in. Even then, she could probably claim it was really Helen Thomas and no-one would dare challenge the claim.

Schumer Even if the New York Republican Party had any fire in their bellies, they’d use their good candidates to run for Gillibrand’s seat, or the statehouse.

Vermont The other Senator was elected as an avowed socialist. Something tells me that this red-in-the-old-fashioned-sense state won’t have a problem with Leahy siding with some socialist policies. That something is common sense.

Wait… that’s it? Don’t worry; although there aren’t many incumbent Democrats this cycle, there’ll be loads of easy pick-ups for the Republicans in 2012 and 2014, even if the two parties swings back to a rough parity in popularity.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas; US: Connecticut; US: Delaware; US: Nevada; US: Pennsylvania; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2010; 2010midterms; congress; dangus; democrats; gopcomeback; republican
Let's make sure that RINOs in Delaware, Connecticut and Illinois don't weaken the GOP. Better to have 48 real Republicans than 51 Republicans, but 3 or 4 of them forming a ruling coalition with the Democrats. Better still to actually field real conservatives in every state.
1 posted on 08/14/2009 2:30:23 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

We should ditch Simmons and get behind Peter Schiff. He’s raised more in one month than Simmons did in the entire quarter. Simmons is RINO. Peter Schiff agrees with conservatives on more issues than some bleu state cheese eating pro-choice RINO loser like Simmons.


2 posted on 08/14/2009 2:32:42 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (The worst is behind us. Unfortunately it is really well endowed.)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

GREAT NEWS! I’m thrilled to know there’s someone ELSE raising money to beat Chris Dodd! Not being a current office-holder, he escaped my research. Ron Paul type, huh? Well, we could use at least one of those in the Senate. He’d be a LOT better than Simmons or Dudd.


3 posted on 08/14/2009 2:36:25 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: dangus

Here in the 7th Congressional District in Michigan, we’re hoping to unseat uber-lib Mark Schauer. He replaced Tim Walberg (a good conservative) last November, done-in IMHO by Bush’s push and passage of TARP.

Tim is going to run again. I hope this district has a BIG case of buyer’s remorse, especially after Schauer’s so-called “phone-in” town halls.


4 posted on 08/14/2009 2:49:12 PM PDT by Kieri (The Conservatrarian)
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To: dangus
I spoke to a GOP source yesterday, and the last poll had Rob Portman down about 10% to either Dem (Brunner or Fischer), but the GOP people don't seem too worried.

1) The Dems have to fight through a primary;

2) According to my source, Portman has been a fundraising machine, burying either of the Dems.

3) He isn't exactly a state wide name, having last served in the Congress from the Cincy area. Bottom line, they aren't worried at all.

Meanwhile, Kasich appears to be even with Ted Strickland.

In both cases, you'd be getting a MUCH more conservative guy (Portman over Voinovich and Kasich over Strickland).

5 posted on 08/14/2009 2:49:53 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

And Peter is a person of integrity. He’s not someone, that can be corrupted by Washtingon. He doesn’t plan to be a career politican, so he don’t give a damn if he gets re-elected or not. He will go there to straighten things and hopefully convince enough weak knee gop to stand firm


6 posted on 08/14/2009 2:50:10 PM PDT by 4rcane
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To: dangus

Looks like Christine O’Donnell is running for Senate in Delaware. She’s firmly conservative.


7 posted on 08/14/2009 2:50:27 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: 4rcane

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgMclXX5msc
Peter Schiff: Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One

If you’re not convinced


8 posted on 08/14/2009 2:51:42 PM PDT by 4rcane
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To: dangus

I wouldn’t concede to Oregon’s Wyden and Washington’s Murray! They are not exactly heavy hitters even if in lib States.


9 posted on 08/14/2009 2:53:52 PM PDT by real_patriotic_american
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To: dangus
Let's make sure that RINOs in Delaware, Connecticut and Illinois don't weaken the GOP. Better to have 48 real Republicans than 51 Republicans, but 3 or 4 of them forming a ruling coalition with the Democrats.

Only someone who does not understand how the Senate works would say such a silly thing. The party who has a majority in the Senate controls the agenda. The majority party determines what legislation will be acted upon, and what will die silently in committee. People who think the country is better off if the with the Republicans being a ideologically pure but minority party are only fooling themselves. It might feel good, but all the time conservatives are congratulating themselves on their intellectual purity, the liberals in the majority will be passing laws to make serfs of us all.
10 posted on 08/14/2009 2:55:44 PM PDT by goldfinch
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To: goldfinch

gop doesnt need to be ideologically pure. They just need to vote small government all the time. You can’t be socially liberal and a socialist and all yourself a republican. In some of these seats where the RINO are far ahead Democrat incumbant, we should back the more Conservative candidate in the primary. We don’t need a rino to win 70%-30% in the state. If gop win 55%-45% with a more conservative candidate, its just as good


11 posted on 08/14/2009 3:02:17 PM PDT by 4rcane
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To: goldfinch

>> The party who has a majority in the Senate controls the agenda. The majority party determines what legislation will be acted upon, and what will die silently in committee. <<

In 2000, chairmanships of the key committees went to Arlen Specter, George Voinovich, Jim Jeffords, Sue Collins, and Lincoln Chafee. Only someone who doesn’t understand elections could say what you just said. If the GOP were to barely win the Senate, they could be vilified for all the tough choices they make, and the RINOs control the agenda, destroying the credibility of the Republican party.

For God’s sake, man, haven’t you learned how deadly RINOs in charge are? It’s like you’re in Pearl Harbor in 1942, still arguing that we can keep the peace with Japan.


12 posted on 08/14/2009 3:04:33 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: real_patriotic_american

I tried to express that it ain’t a done deal even in those states.


13 posted on 08/14/2009 3:06:47 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: 4rcane; goldfinch

The issue is that there’s a core of moneybags in the GOP who hate conservatives as much as any socialist, and there’s a wider group of Republican surrender-monkeys who think, for some reason, that the best way to beat a socialist is to make sure you never disagree with them.


14 posted on 08/14/2009 3:10:15 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: dangus

In Washington, Rossi beat Governor Gregoire (”Wilma Flintstone”) in 2004, but she took it to court and won it there just as Franken did. In other words, the DemocRats can be beat in these blue States. And especially if Obama keeps pushing his socialist heathcare bill.


15 posted on 08/14/2009 3:18:27 PM PDT by real_patriotic_american
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To: dangus

its a good point. Look how the media/democrats is playing it. They’re say, gop were in control all this time and they ruined everything. GOP were never in control. They were constantly undermined by the RINOs, but GOP got blamed for everything


16 posted on 08/14/2009 3:22:45 PM PDT by 4rcane
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To: dangus

Oh, I forgot this one: there is talk that in FL, Martinez’s early resignation means that Crist may be forced to appoint Rubio. Ok, so if all we did was replace Voino with Portman, Martinez with Rubio, and Sphincter with Toomey, (yes, he’s a Dem now, I know) that would be three formerly GOP seat that moved significantly to the right without changing hands (again, except in Sphincter’s seat).


17 posted on 08/14/2009 3:33:49 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: dangus

I see your point but, to me, a bulkhead needs to be established so the most heinous parts of Obama’s socialism never become law. Not only does a majority mean you get the committee chairmanships but you also get more Senators on your committee from your party than they get. That will be crucial in 2011-2012.

One chamber can’t roll back the damage that has been done but they can stand in the way of implementing the rest of the neo-com package Obama wants to implement.

I just worry that the Democrat vote fraud apperatus may defeat us even if the poll numbers favor us. You can’t poll dead people and illegals, both of which vote solid Democrat.


18 posted on 08/14/2009 3:35:36 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (YES WE CAN have a Depression.)
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To: dangus

Idaho.

I don’t think we will have a problem hammering Minnick in Idaho. Admittedly, he has opposed ObamaCare and he voted against the ‘stimulus’. He did vote FOR that stupid GIVE Act though.

Minnick has a big red ‘D’ on his forehead. Part of the reason we have Pelosi as speaker. We should have no problem pointing out he is a democrat and tie in with the disgust of Idahoans for congress and the administration.

He should be on a list as a target for turning Republican. We just need a good candidate.


19 posted on 08/14/2009 3:36:55 PM PDT by Borderline
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To: Borderline

BTTT


20 posted on 08/14/2009 3:40:51 PM PDT by Jane Austen (Boycott the Philadelphia Eagles!)
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To: dangus
I wonder why nobody is focusing on the open seat in the CA-10 that Ellen Tauscher just vacated. The election is in September.

-PJ

21 posted on 08/14/2009 3:44:46 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (This just in... Voting Republican is a Terrorist act!)
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To: dangus

Ah yes, what a wonderful place. Heridatary titles are more common than Kentucky Colonels - the Gores, Chaffees, Dodds, Kennedys, Clintons, and now the Bidens have turned “the world’s most deliberative body” into a bad joke.

What’s next - 0bambi’s dog as Senator. Considering what Delaware has, that might be an improvemnet. C’mon, what state can boast of a RINO, a mute and a seat warmer as its “representation”. Heck, they even copy each other’s letters.


22 posted on 08/14/2009 4:05:33 PM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: All

2008 Senate Make-Up:

Democrats: 58 seats + 2 leftie independents
Republicans: 40 seats

2010 seats up for election:

37 seats, 18 Dem and 19 GOP...

Dem seats:
AR - Lincoln
CA - Boxer
CO - Bennet
CT - Dodd
DE - Kaufman*
HI - Inouye
IL - Burris*
IN - Bayh
MD - Mikulski
NV - Reid
NY - Gillibrand
NY - Schumer
ND - Dorgan
OR - Wyden
PA - Specter
VT - Leahy
WA - Murray
WI - Feingold

GOP seats:
AK - Murkowski
AL - Shelby
AZ - McCain
FL - Martinez*
GA - Isakson
IA - Grassley
ID - Crapo
KS - Brownback*
KY - Bunning*
LA - Vitter
MO - Bond*
NC - Burr
NH - Gregg*
OH - Voinovich*
OK - Coburn
SC - DeMint
SD - Thune
TX - Hutchison*
UT - Bennett

* - retiring

So, in order to win back the Senate, the GOP will need to hold all 19 seats and pick off 10 Democrat seats. That’s an extremely tall order. If Obama’s poll numbers hit bottom and Congress continues to alienate Americans by pushing his agenda, it might be possible but really difficult.

The professional pundits have Connecticut (Dodd) and Illinois (Burris*) as toss-ups and one other adds Colorado (Bennet) to the list. Where could the other seven come from?
Gillibrand, Specter, Reid, Kaufman, maybe Boxer and Lincoln.

Add in that all the GOP seats, including six retiring seats, would have to stay in GOP hands and you are really hoping on dealing to an inside straight. If we can pin the recession and the rush to socialism on the Democrats, it is possible to see such a sea change but, man, things don’t look rosy.


23 posted on 08/14/2009 4:05:39 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (YES WE CAN have a Depression.)
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To: dangus

When it comes to Oregon Senate, Wyden is someone who is a force to be reckoned with. He may be liberal, but he’s also very much people-oriented. People like him.

The best bet for a GOP Senator from Oregon is in 2014, when Merkley is up...because let’s face it...no one likes Merkley.


24 posted on 08/14/2009 4:12:41 PM PDT by ThePanFromJapan (The Pundit class is going to be crapping bricks at what's coming next...*evil grin*)
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To: NTHockey

Don’t forget Bayh, Rockefeller, Landrieu and Casey.


25 posted on 08/14/2009 4:34:37 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: Borderline

My list is of Senators in 2010.


26 posted on 08/14/2009 4:35:54 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: OrangeHoof

Worse than that... the GOP needs to gain 11 seats; otherwise Biden comes back to the Senate to break the tie


27 posted on 08/14/2009 4:37:23 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: dangus

It is a long time until Nov. 2010. The Pubbies can still blow it.
And probably will.
Probably with some sort of “compromise.”


28 posted on 08/14/2009 4:39:51 PM PDT by Little Ray (Do we have a Plan B?)
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To: LS

Is Portman that conservative?


29 posted on 08/14/2009 4:45:33 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: dangus
"My list is of Senators in 2010."

Ooops, big 'doh' on my part. So it is! My apologies, and thanks for the kind correction.

onward!
30 posted on 08/14/2009 5:41:06 PM PDT by Borderline
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To: Borderline

Hey, no apologies. I didn’t explicitly state that even.


31 posted on 08/14/2009 11:33:39 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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To: dangus
"Is Portman that conservative?"

Compared to VOINO (whom I'd rank a "3" and whose only value is that he voted pro-life regularly), I'd put Portman a 7 or 8. I keep remembering that a) VOINO was supporting the "gang of 14," and most important, that he was the key vote that torpedoed ANWR.

32 posted on 08/15/2009 4:30:11 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: dangus

BTTT


33 posted on 08/16/2009 9:13:37 AM PDT by Munz (All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.)
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To: dangus
Looks like Christine O’Donnell is running for Senate in Delaware. She’s firmly conservative.

I wish the Delaware GOP would show more support for her.

34 posted on 08/20/2009 12:20:38 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: OrangeHoof
If we can pin the recession and the rush to socialism on the Democrats, it is possible to see such a sea change but, man, things don’t look rosy.

Exactly right. Anyone who holds hope for the changes listed, barring some huge unforeseen miracle, is wearing Tudor glasses.

35 posted on 08/20/2009 12:24:26 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: dangus

There is absolutely no chance that Evan Bayh will lose. None. Zero.


36 posted on 08/20/2009 12:38:55 PM PDT by Publius Valerius
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To: Publius Valerius

I was referring to Senators who inherited their lordship.


37 posted on 08/20/2009 2:29:14 PM PDT by dangus (I am JimThompson)
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