Skip to comments.Charlie Cook: Dem situation has 'slipped completely out of control'
Posted on 08/20/2009 2:17:07 PM PDT by SonOfDarkSkies
Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.
Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.
"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Reports Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
But the Dems will still be the majority even with a 20 seat loss, right?
Democrats have gotten themselves into the position of either they turn on each other or risk not getting re-elected. This is what happens when they try and screw the people. Thank God for a Republic.
Uh, 20 seats is a little low for an average mid-term, not when the people are in a frenzy and will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls. If trends continue, losses will be closer to 40-50+.
I am hoping we see a Clinton style blowout- Newt Where are you???
20 seats? @#$% that. We need to take the thing back.
Charlie you are being too nice. The Rats are going to lose more than 80 and possibly 100. People are getting wise to Othuga even liberals who see him for what he is. The Second American Revolution is coming.
Which means Pelousy will still be the speaker. What a bummer.
It’s an off-year. Many fewer Democrats are up for election.
What are you talking about? The entire House is up for re-election.
I think he is way understating the mood in this country.
If Pelosi and Reid ram health reform through, they do so at their own and their party’s peril!
Yes. Current make up is 255 to 178, a 77 seat difference. A 20 seat switch would make it 235 to 198, and even Republicans picking up 2 seats would still put them 35 seats down.
However, if the polling continues at it’s current pace, you could see a soft chance at a 30 seat flip. That would put the Republicans in good position for a house take over with a successful Presidential candidate in 2012.
But even with the Democrats collapsing right now, it seems unlikely that the Republicans can recapture the House in 2010.
The volcano is building up pressure and is going to explode. See here:
I was under the impression it was staggered, as in my country.
The magic number is right around 40.
As horrifying as it is to see the Obama Admin and the Democratic Congress attempt to destroy this nation, it does appear that 233 years later, the Founding Fathers' Republic still works.
The House is always up for re-election (every 2 years) ... all gazillion of them (I forget how many of these princes reside in DC). Only 1/3 of the Senators are up for election - same as it is every 2 years...
If the Dems hang on to control but lose 20+ seats, maybe they'll dump Pelousy for Hoyer.
There isnt a blue dog seat that is "safe" IMO (52 seats), not to mention the vacancies. As recently as 2006 Reps had a majority in the House... We just dont know what the upside is.
Look on the bright side-Arlen Specter won’t switch parties again, the ‘rats will be stuck with him.
I wish I could feel more optimism, but I have little faith in the average voter’s ability to make the right choice a year from now. There is so much that will be said that can manipulate the psychology of the naive electorate. The media machine operates 24/7 and they are constantly seeking ways to manipulate the process; unfortunately, they often succeed in convincing the gullible that everything is the Republicans’ fault. On top of this all, even if the Republicans DO carry the election, will principled, conservative and libertarian leadership actually arise? I so desperately want there to be a transformation, but I am feeling discouraged about the entire process.
Has voter fraud conducted by ACORN /SEIU been factored in? With them in control of the census and with Black Panther poll watchers I think dems are not worried and are looking forward to a landslide in 2010. I think the last free election that we will ever see was in November of 2004-— Just saying.
Poor candidates might very well win in 2010, but the question is will they be so poor that 2012 turns into another Democrat year?
What little remains of it.
Repeal direct election of senators and things would get better fast.
The entire House is up for reelection every two years.
We ain’t won nuthin yet.
The 100 Senators are roughly staggered (est 33) in every Congression election (every two years). Wherein the entire 435 House of Representatives is up for election every two years).
“The magic number is right around 40.”
Democrats lost 52 seats in 1994, so this is by no means outside the realm of possibility. Cook is making this prediction in the middle of the debate about health reform. Once the public actually see Obamacare go up in flames for certain, their anger will be amplified even further.
How many of that forty are Blue Dogs that Sarah Palin could ride in and knock off next fall?
Did you have to remind me... I was experiencing a mild departure from reality and enjoying it. lol!
This was a significant election not simply because the Depression began under the GOP’s watch. It also had to do with the party’s response. President Hoover failed to address the crisis to the public’s satisfaction. Thus, the party was severely discredited. In eight years time, the GOP would go from 270 House members to just 88 - and it would be 20 years before the GOP would win the White House with a war hero who promised a “moderate conservatism” that accepted the basic premises of the Roosevelt presidency.
This giant lurch manifested itself in the Electoral College””
History rhymes as they say - Stock market continues to tank, 1000 banks fail, Real estate continues to fall, dollar gets whacked in half, peoples taxes go through the roof, unemployment U6 number hit’s 25%, every pension fund and state is in default,,,,,
The dead wood is going to get flushed out. As they say “It’s the economy stupid”
4000 tax protest leagues were formed in the last GD and were very effective against the socialists in power at the time.
In the Republican Revolution of 1994, the Republicans picked up 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats. Such a showing next year WOULD give us back the House and put us within two seats and a Vice President of taking back the Senate.
With continued high unemployment, with the start of inflation, with increased taxes, 2010 will be a big blow-out victory for the Republicans.
36 Seante seats will be up for election, 34 seats for full six-year terms and two special elections (DE and IL). Polls indicate we might be able to beat:
If we can win in three or four of these states, who knows, we might win in another state or two that’s not currently on the radar screen AND keep all our current seats. But eight seats a la 1994 seems out of reach, no less 11 seats as would be needed to take back the Senate.
THEREFORE ... look for the DEMOCOMMIES to be desparate to stack the judiciary following 2010 and prior to 2012.
I believe this could well be the case. Something tells me the AP election results articles have all already been written. IIRC, much of the porkulus money really starts doling out in the months leading up to the election, as well.
And if that happens, I wonder how many of the libtards will sit home and pout come next November.
At this rate, you have HIGHLY motivated seniors and ticked off conservatives. That with a very depressed liberal base could make for a fun 2010.
Basically, I think the Dems are going to sit at home a lot next November.
“Its an off-year. Many fewer Democrats are up for election.”
What kind of gobbledygook is that? Every two years on even years ALL members of the house of representatives face election. That means in the coming house elections far more democrats than republicans will face election.
Only 20 seats? I was hoping for the biggest interdimensional crossrip since the Republican landslide of 1994!
You are about 20 posts late.
20 seat flip is not good enough. We need at least 45 and preferably 70.
Yes. The current margin is 256 to 179, for a margin of 77 seats. If Republicans won 39 seats, they would have a bare majority. In practice, a margin of 10 to 20 seats is needed for secure control, meaning that winning or switching 45 to 50 seats must be the goal.
The NRCC already has a target list of 70 seats, and another 10 or so are expected to be added. Many of the target districts voted for Bush and McCain but went Democrat when Rahm Emmanuel recruited and won with relatively conservative House candidates.
In 2010, these “Blue Dogs” will have to defend numerous liberal votes, high deficits, unemployment in excess of 10%, and association with the increasingly unpopular Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Historically, the party out of power tends to gain House seats in the mid term elections.
At this point, the smart money would bet on large Republican gains in the House but not enough to take control.
...............Polls indicate we might be able to beat:........
And let’s remember that Kennedy’s seat will be vacant, which “might” be able to turn Pubbie;
And Byrd will most probably be so senile next year he’s history
“You are about 20 posts late.”
I haven’t read the other posts but I suspect lots of Freepers caught your mistake.
Yes, you strike me like one who does not read the posts.
Kennedy’s seat will not be vacant whether they appoint a successor in Mass as Teddy currently wants the state to do (would require a change in the law) or hold a special election within 5 months of him vacating the seat as the law currently requires. AND it’s Massachusetts so whoever replaces him will be a Dem. Unless it’s a Socialist.
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