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Charlie Cook: Dem situation has 'slipped completely out of control'
Politico.com ^ | 8/20/2009 | Charles Mahtesian

Posted on 08/20/2009 2:17:07 PM PDT by SonOfDarkSkies

Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.

Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.

"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 111th; 2010midterms; bho44; cook; house2010
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1 posted on 08/20/2009 2:17:08 PM PDT by SonOfDarkSkies
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

But the Dems will still be the majority even with a 20 seat loss, right?


2 posted on 08/20/2009 2:18:25 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

Democrats have gotten themselves into the position of either they turn on each other or risk not getting re-elected. This is what happens when they try and screw the people. Thank God for a Republic.


3 posted on 08/20/2009 2:19:26 PM PDT by RC2
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To: Bobkk47

Yes...


4 posted on 08/20/2009 2:19:33 PM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

Uh, 20 seats is a little low for an average mid-term, not when the people are in a frenzy and will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls. If trends continue, losses will be closer to 40-50+.


5 posted on 08/20/2009 2:19:33 PM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

I am hoping we see a Clinton style blowout- Newt Where are you???


6 posted on 08/20/2009 2:20:59 PM PDT by Mr. K (THIS ADMINISTRATION IS WEARING OUT MY CAPSLOCK KEY DAMMIT DAMMIT DAMMIT!!!!!)
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

20 seats? @#$% that. We need to take the thing back.


7 posted on 08/20/2009 2:21:33 PM PDT by T. Buzzard Trueblood
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

Charlie you are being too nice. The Rats are going to lose more than 80 and possibly 100. People are getting wise to Othuga even liberals who see him for what he is. The Second American Revolution is coming.


8 posted on 08/20/2009 2:21:33 PM PDT by DarthVader (Liberalism is the politics of EVIL whose time of judgment has come.)
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To: KoRn

Which means Pelousy will still be the speaker. What a bummer.


9 posted on 08/20/2009 2:22:09 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: cotton1706

It’s an off-year. Many fewer Democrats are up for election.


10 posted on 08/20/2009 2:22:47 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: Jewbacca

What are you talking about? The entire House is up for re-election.


11 posted on 08/20/2009 2:24:07 PM PDT by cotton1706
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

I think he is way understating the mood in this country.
If Pelosi and Reid ram health reform through, they do so at their own and their party’s peril!


12 posted on 08/20/2009 2:24:21 PM PDT by aShepard
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To: Bobkk47

Yes. Current make up is 255 to 178, a 77 seat difference. A 20 seat switch would make it 235 to 198, and even Republicans picking up 2 seats would still put them 35 seats down.

However, if the polling continues at it’s current pace, you could see a soft chance at a 30 seat flip. That would put the Republicans in good position for a house take over with a successful Presidential candidate in 2012.

But even with the Democrats collapsing right now, it seems unlikely that the Republicans can recapture the House in 2010.


13 posted on 08/20/2009 2:24:25 PM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

The volcano is building up pressure and is going to explode. See here:

http://www.iamsorryivotedforobama.com/


14 posted on 08/20/2009 2:24:54 PM PDT by DarthVader (Liberalism is the politics of EVIL whose time of judgment has come.)
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To: cotton1706

I was under the impression it was staggered, as in my country.


15 posted on 08/20/2009 2:25:21 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: Jewbacca
It’s an off-year. Many fewer Democrats are up for election.

Huh? I thought that every two years, ALL members of the House, and 1/3 of the Senate is up for re-election.
16 posted on 08/20/2009 2:25:27 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Bobkk47
But the Dems will still be the majority even with a 20 seat loss, right?

The magic number is right around 40.

17 posted on 08/20/2009 2:25:52 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (has created or saved 150,000 posts, sure.)
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To: RC2
"Democrats have gotten themselves into the position of either they turn on each other or risk not getting re-elected. This is what happens when they try and screw the people. Thank God for a Republic."

As horrifying as it is to see the Obama Admin and the Democratic Congress attempt to destroy this nation, it does appear that 233 years later, the Founding Fathers' Republic still works.

18 posted on 08/20/2009 2:26:06 PM PDT by avacado
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To: Jewbacca

The House is always up for re-election (every 2 years) ... all gazillion of them (I forget how many of these princes reside in DC). Only 1/3 of the Senators are up for election - same as it is every 2 years...


19 posted on 08/20/2009 2:26:20 PM PDT by El Cid (Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ, and thou shalt be saved, and thy house...)
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To: Bobkk47
Which means Pelousy will still be the speaker. What a bummer.

If the Dems hang on to control but lose 20+ seats, maybe they'll dump Pelousy for Hoyer.

20 posted on 08/20/2009 2:26:44 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (has created or saved 150,000 posts, sure.)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
soft chance at a 30 seat flip

There isnt a blue dog seat that is "safe" IMO (52 seats), not to mention the vacancies. As recently as 2006 Reps had a majority in the House... We just dont know what the upside is.

21 posted on 08/20/2009 2:29:30 PM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: Bobkk47

Look on the bright side-Arlen Specter won’t switch parties again, the ‘rats will be stuck with him.


22 posted on 08/20/2009 2:30:39 PM PDT by mrsmel (Put the Gitmo terrorists near Capitol Hill.)
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I wish I could feel more optimism, but I have little faith in the average voter’s ability to make the right choice a year from now. There is so much that will be said that can manipulate the psychology of the naive electorate. The media machine operates 24/7 and they are constantly seeking ways to manipulate the process; unfortunately, they often succeed in convincing the gullible that everything is the Republicans’ fault. On top of this all, even if the Republicans DO carry the election, will principled, conservative and libertarian leadership actually arise? I so desperately want there to be a transformation, but I am feeling discouraged about the entire process.


23 posted on 08/20/2009 2:30:47 PM PDT by Arkansas Toothpick
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

Has voter fraud conducted by ACORN /SEIU been factored in? With them in control of the census and with Black Panther poll watchers I think dems are not worried and are looking forward to a landslide in 2010. I think the last free election that we will ever see was in November of 2004-— Just saying.


24 posted on 08/20/2009 2:34:34 PM PDT by jesseam (Been there and done that!)
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To: SonOfDarkSkies
The real question being ... can the GOP find any non-schmuck candidates to run against the vulnerable D's.

Poor candidates might very well win in 2010, but the question is will they be so poor that 2012 turns into another Democrat year?

25 posted on 08/20/2009 2:36:54 PM PDT by r9etb
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To: RC2
Thank God for a Republic.

What little remains of it.

Repeal direct election of senators and things would get better fast.

26 posted on 08/20/2009 2:37:29 PM PDT by HIDEK6
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To: Jewbacca
It’s an off-year. Many fewer Democrats are up for election.

The entire House is up for reelection every two years.

27 posted on 08/20/2009 2:38:28 PM PDT by HIDEK6
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To: avacado

We ain’t won nuthin yet.


28 posted on 08/20/2009 2:39:00 PM PDT by karnage (worn arguments and old attitudes)
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To: Jewbacca
The 100 Senators are roughly staggered (est 33) in every Congression election (every two years). Wherein the entire 435 House of Representatives is up for election every two years).

29 posted on 08/20/2009 2:39:15 PM PDT by Stand Watch Listen
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To: NeoCaveman

“The magic number is right around 40.”

Democrats lost 52 seats in 1994, so this is by no means outside the realm of possibility. Cook is making this prediction in the middle of the debate about health reform. Once the public actually see Obamacare go up in flames for certain, their anger will be amplified even further.


30 posted on 08/20/2009 2:40:57 PM PDT by DrC
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To: NeoCaveman

How many of that forty are Blue Dogs that Sarah Palin could ride in and knock off next fall?


31 posted on 08/20/2009 2:41:11 PM PDT by Sybeck1 (No teleprompters were harmed in the creation of this post.)
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To: karnage
"We ain’t won nuthin yet."

Did you have to remind me... I was experiencing a mild departure from reality and enjoying it. lol!

32 posted on 08/20/2009 2:41:24 PM PDT by avacado
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To: NeoCaveman

“””1932

This was a significant election not simply because the Depression began under the GOP’s watch. It also had to do with the party’s response. President Hoover failed to address the crisis to the public’s satisfaction. Thus, the party was severely discredited. In eight years time, the GOP would go from 270 House members to just 88 - and it would be 20 years before the GOP would win the White House with a war hero who promised a “moderate conservatism” that accepted the basic premises of the Roosevelt presidency.

This giant lurch manifested itself in the Electoral College””

History rhymes as they say - Stock market continues to tank, 1000 banks fail, Real estate continues to fall, dollar gets whacked in half, peoples taxes go through the roof, unemployment U6 number hit’s 25%, every pension fund and state is in default,,,,,

The dead wood is going to get flushed out. As they say “It’s the economy stupid”

4000 tax protest leagues were formed in the last GD and were very effective against the socialists in power at the time.


33 posted on 08/20/2009 2:44:25 PM PDT by underbyte (TEOTEWAKI)
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To: DarthVader
Image and video hosting by TinyPicImage and video hosting by TinyPicImage and video hosting by TinyPicImage and video hosting by TinyPicImage and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

34 posted on 08/20/2009 2:46:14 PM PDT by Cyber Ninja (His legacy is a stain OnTheDress)
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

In the Republican Revolution of 1994, the Republicans picked up 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats. Such a showing next year WOULD give us back the House and put us within two seats and a Vice President of taking back the Senate.

With continued high unemployment, with the start of inflation, with increased taxes, 2010 will be a big blow-out victory for the Republicans.

36 Seante seats will be up for election, 34 seats for full six-year terms and two special elections (DE and IL). Polls indicate we might be able to beat:

Bennett CO
Boxer CA
Burns IL
Dodd CT
Reid NV
Specter PA

If we can win in three or four of these states, who knows, we might win in another state or two that’s not currently on the radar screen AND keep all our current seats. But eight seats a la 1994 seems out of reach, no less 11 seats as would be needed to take back the Senate.

THEREFORE ... look for the DEMOCOMMIES to be desparate to stack the judiciary following 2010 and prior to 2012.


35 posted on 08/20/2009 2:46:25 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: jesseam
Has voter fraud conducted by ACORN /SEIU been factored in? With them in control of the census and with Black Panther poll watchers I think dems are not worried and are looking forward to a landslide in 2010.

I believe this could well be the case. Something tells me the AP election results articles have all already been written. IIRC, much of the porkulus money really starts doling out in the months leading up to the election, as well.

36 posted on 08/20/2009 2:49:28 PM PDT by workerbee (If you vote for Democrats, you are engaging in UnAmerican Activity.)
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To: DrC
Once the public actually see Obamacare go up in flames for certain, their anger will be amplified even further.

And if that happens, I wonder how many of the libtards will sit home and pout come next November.

37 posted on 08/20/2009 2:53:34 PM PDT by THX 1138 ("Harry, I have a gift.")
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

At this rate, you have HIGHLY motivated seniors and ticked off conservatives. That with a very depressed liberal base could make for a fun 2010.

Basically, I think the Dems are going to sit at home a lot next November.


38 posted on 08/20/2009 2:56:58 PM PDT by wireplay
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To: Mr. K
I am hoping we see a Clinton style blowout- Newt Where are you???

Net had nothing to do with it

it was completely Grass Roots

Gun Owners

CC --abortion--gays in the military
39 posted on 08/20/2009 2:57:09 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Jewbacca

“It’s an off-year. Many fewer Democrats are up for election.”

What kind of gobbledygook is that? Every two years on even years ALL members of the house of representatives face election. That means in the coming house elections far more democrats than republicans will face election.


40 posted on 08/20/2009 2:58:06 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: SonOfDarkSkies

Only 20 seats? I was hoping for the biggest interdimensional crossrip since the Republican landslide of 1994!


41 posted on 08/20/2009 2:59:01 PM PDT by saganite (What would Sully do?)
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To: billhilly

You are about 20 posts late.


42 posted on 08/20/2009 2:59:07 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: Bobkk47

20 seat flip is not good enough. We need at least 45 and preferably 70.


43 posted on 08/20/2009 3:00:22 PM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: Bobkk47

Yes. The current margin is 256 to 179, for a margin of 77 seats. If Republicans won 39 seats, they would have a bare majority. In practice, a margin of 10 to 20 seats is needed for secure control, meaning that winning or switching 45 to 50 seats must be the goal.

The NRCC already has a target list of 70 seats, and another 10 or so are expected to be added. Many of the target districts voted for Bush and McCain but went Democrat when Rahm Emmanuel recruited and won with relatively conservative House candidates.

In 2010, these “Blue Dogs” will have to defend numerous liberal votes, high deficits, unemployment in excess of 10%, and association with the increasingly unpopular Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Historically, the party out of power tends to gain House seats in the mid term elections.

At this point, the smart money would bet on large Republican gains in the House but not enough to take control.


44 posted on 08/20/2009 3:01:18 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: underbyte
History rhymes as they say - Stock market continues to tank, 1000 banks fail, Real estate continues to fall, dollar gets whacked in half, peoples taxes go through the roof, unemployment U6 number hit’s 25%, every pension fund and state is in default,,,,,

In other words we will return to the Dark Ages as a highly technical society collapses in on if self ---it will be mob rule
45 posted on 08/20/2009 3:01:56 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Redmen4ever

...............Polls indicate we might be able to beat:........

And let’s remember that Kennedy’s seat will be vacant, which “might” be able to turn Pubbie;

And Byrd will most probably be so senile next year he’s history


46 posted on 08/20/2009 3:03:21 PM PDT by aShepard
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To: Jewbacca

“You are about 20 posts late.”

I haven’t read the other posts but I suspect lots of Freepers caught your mistake.


47 posted on 08/20/2009 3:05:28 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: billhilly

Yes, you strike me like one who does not read the posts.


48 posted on 08/20/2009 3:09:10 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: aShepard

Kennedy’s seat will not be vacant whether they appoint a successor in Mass as Teddy currently wants the state to do (would require a change in the law) or hold a special election within 5 months of him vacating the seat as the law currently requires. AND it’s Massachusetts so whoever replaces him will be a Dem. Unless it’s a Socialist.


49 posted on 08/20/2009 3:11:07 PM PDT by saganite (What would Sully do?)
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To: Andrewksu

Latest from the Chevy Chase branch of the family


50 posted on 08/20/2009 3:11:58 PM PDT by centurion316
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