Posted on 08/20/2009 11:29:36 PM PDT by ReadTheLaw
Longer term Solar Minimum could lead to Little Ice Age __________________
15 Aug 09 – “Many scientists are believing that a Dalton-like solar minimum appears a real possibility given the recent solar behavior,” says this article on Icecap.** “Even David Hathaway of NASA has recently conceded that ‘possibility’ to the New York Times.”
“In EOS* of 28 July 2009 there is a very well written feature-length article by astronomer Emeritus Dr. William Livingston and Associate Astronomer Dr Matthew Penn entitled ”Are Sunspots Different During This Sunspot Minimum?”
Livingston and Penn answer yes. Their central finding is that regardless of the relation to the sunspot cycles, magnetic intensity in sunspots is decreasing and if this continues in the same way as it has for the last 15 years, the Sun will be devoid of sunspots in five years time: overall the Sun’s energetic output will decline significantly inducing another little ice age on the Earth.” (Italics added.) image See larger image here.
Why worry about is a lack of sunspot activity?
“During a period from 1645 to 1715 the Sun entered an extended period of low activity known as the Maunder Minimum,” say Livingston and Penn. “For a time equivalent to several sunspot cycles the Sun displayed few sunspots. Models of the Sun’s irradiance suggest that the solar energy input to the Earth decreased during that epoch, and that this lull in solar activity may explain the low temperatures recorded in Europe during the Little Ice Age”. The current solar cycle is the longest in at least 150 years, says Dr. Richard Mackey of Australia, a solar statistician expert. It has had more sunspot-less days - 689 days as of today – which is more than double the number in the cycles the last half century, said Mackey, a peer-reviewed author on solar climate factors.
“Other scientists report that the solar wind (a large proportion of the Sun’s output of matter in the plasma form) is in a lower energy state than found since space measurements began nearly 40 years ago.” (Another reason to believe that it will grow even colder.)
Then there’s the feature article “Natural antidote to global warming” written by Sir John Maddox, then the editor of Nature and published in Nature on 21 September 1995. Sir John referred to the extensive research published up to 1995 indicating the Sun-climate relationship and that the Sun was likely to enter into a Maunder Minimum inducing state (The last Little Ice Age) sometime during the first few decades of the new millennium.”
“Livingston and Penn and a large number of solar physicists … say that the likelihood of the Earth being seized by Maunder Minimum is now greater that the Earth being seized by a period of global warming.”
See entire article(including graphs), originally entitled “Longer term Solar Minimum – Dalton or Maunder” http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog Thanks to Mike McEvoy for this link
* EOS is the professional publication of the American Geophysical Union. The feature articles in EOS are generally supportive of the IPCC dogma, so this is a very important article. ** Icecap is not just a bunch of wild-eyed “deniers” Here are some of the experts whose stories you may see on Icecap :
Joseph D’Aleo, Executive Director, Certified Consultant Meteorologist and Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS).
Robert C. Balling Jr., Professor of Climatology, Arizona State University
Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist
Reid A. Bryson Ph.D. D.Sc. D.Engr., Global 500 Laureate, Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic Research, Emeritus Prof. of Meteorology, of Geography, and of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
Robert Carter, Researcher at the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, Australia, a paleontologist, stratigrapher and marine geologist with more than thirty years of professional experience with degrees from the University of Otago (New Zealand) and the University of Cambridge (England
John Coleman, Founder of The Weather Channel, TV Meteorologist KUSI-TV, San Diego. John has been a TV weatherman since he was a freshman in college in 1953.
William Cotton, Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University
Chris De Freitas, climate scientist in the School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science at the University of Auckland. Chris has Bachelors and Masters degrees from the University of Toronto and a PhD from the University of Queensland as a Commonwealth Scholar.
David Deming, Associate Professor of Arts and Science at the University of Oklahoma
He graduated from Indiana University in 1983 with a BS degree in geology and received a Ph.D in geophysics from the University of Utah in 1988.
Bob Durrenberger, Retired Climatologist, a meteorologist for 65 years and a climatologist for 60+ years.
Mel Goldstein, Chief Meteorologist for News Channel 8 in Connecticut.
Dr. Vincent Gray, an “Expert Reviewer” for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has published many papers on climate science including detailed critiques on each of the IPCC science reports.
Dr. William Gray, Meteorologist, may be the world’s most famous hurricane expert.
Ben Herman, Professor and former Head of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at the University of Arizona and former Director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Douglas V. Hoyt, Solar Physicist and Climatologist, has worked for more than thirty years as a research scientist in the field.
Warwick Hughes, Earth Scientist, a graduate in geology from Auckland University who has carried out pioneering research on surface temperature measurement.
Madhav Khandekar, retired Meteorologist, formerly with Environment Canada, specializes in understanding extreme weather events in Canada and in other parts of the world.
David Legates, Associate Professor in Climatology, University of Delaware
Joseph E. Luisi, Former Chief Meteorologist for Delta Airlines, with the Delta Air Lines Meteorology Department for 28 years.
Anthony Lupo, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri-Columbia
Pat Michaels, Research professor of environmental sciences, University of Virginia
H. Michael “Mike” Mogil, Certified Consulting Meteorologist, a seasoned meteorologist with B.S. and M.S. degrees in meteorology from Florida State University.
Tad Murty, Adjunct Professor of Earth Sciences and Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa.
James O’Brien, Director Emeritus of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University
Tom Victor Segalstad, Associate Professor of Resource- and Environmental Geology at the University of Oslo and expert IPCC reviewer
Dr. Gary Sharp, Scientific Director, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study
S. Fred Singer, President of the Science & Environment Policy Project. Singer is also a Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia.
Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist, University of Alabama and the U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA’s Aqua satellite. Received his Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin in 1981.
George Taylor, Certified Consulting Meteorologist, who retired in 2008 after 19 years as State Climatologist for Oregon.
Hendrik Tennekes, Former Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Richard C. Willson, Principal Investigator, ACRIM Experiments, holds a doctoral degree in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of California-Los Angeles, and B.S. and M.S. degrees in Physics
See also...
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog
see also....
http://iceagenow.com/
Yikes!
Something the ‘warmers’ have never considered: An Ice Age Cometh.
Yikes!
Something the ‘warmers’ have never considered: An Ice Age Cometh.
New England states, along with Washington, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, will all get hit hardest. These states are the ones that have more liberals than most and they are the ones that have sent us backwards with “global warming” for years.
I want to see every liberal recant and then commit hara-kiri.
Consider if there were a 50 foot drop in the ocean. No existing port in the world would be usable.
A shrinking and shifting of the temperate zones would lead to mass starvation as well. Humanity has very little to fear from global warming. Global cooling would be catastrophic on all levels.
The polar ice would creep toward the equator causing mass migration and overcrowding everywhere. The ice mass increase leads to more sun reflection and ever more cooler atmosphere which severely impairs food growth. Famine of biblical proportions then becomes worldwide. The poorer nations could lose large percentages of their populations as food becomes rationed by price and ability to pay.
There would be more coast and different ports.
Alas, all the enviro-wienies in San Francisco were right 30 years ago. We ARE heading for a new ice age! More sunspots? Blame carbon emissions. Fewer sunspots? Blame carbon emissions. Higher intensity solar radiation? Blame carbon emissions. Obama got elected? Blame carbon emissions.
You simply build out the ports.
Heck, New Orleans would be habitable without a wall.
It all sounds good to me.
Massive costs on an already strained economy would be required to build the infrastructure of ports and rail lines and roads.
Maybe the Goracl;e and his Gorons will finally shut up!
Dern tootin. Carbon emissions will be blamed for global cooling. Result, nobody believes the “scientists” any more.
A sea plunge wouldn’t happen that quickly.
The article speaks of a Maunder Minimum type cooling, not a new "sudden Ice Age". Even at the height of the last ice age latitudes up to 38 degrees were free of glacial ice. Snowball earth was 600 million years ago and is not likely to be repeated over the next few election cycles.
Interesting that ice caps on Mars grow and contract where no man (or carbon emission) has gone before. You see that big bright ball in the sky? That furnace is not constant and we are at its mercy.
Gore’s fault
You are absolutely correct. Even with a mini ice age, we would be praying for global warming.
Our present interglacial period has lasted longer (and been more stable) than any in the last several million years. Interglacials are normally short. It may be that humans have had some effect, in that regard, though also it is of note that temperatures in the current interglacial have NOT exceeded the peak of the last interglacial. If we have had an effect, it seems to be mostly a "buffering" effect, and no one can tell me anyone knows if the effect is enough to continue overriding the overall pattern. Similarly, no one really knows how much of a dip might trigger a greater drop.
Shoot, we were supposed to be rained on like crazy, yesterday, much of the day, and we got nary a drop.
I remember a Russian Astrophyisist putting up a an open wager of $ 10,000 to any global warming proponent that the earth was going to start cooling soon before it got hotter due to lower output by the sun.
I don’t recall any of the Gorons taking him up on the wager.
Seems as though the scientist was right and in reality, global cooling is a bigger problem than warming was. Of course what will happen is the Gorons will claim man made Co2 as the culprit and spin this to try and impose their will anyway.
It's the larger 200+ ft. drop that might well cause some problems ~ like relocating most East Coast port facilities up to 100 miles off shore from their present locations.
“the Sun will be devoid of sunspots in five years time”
In case nobody is looking the Sun IS devoid of Sunspots and has been for the last 41 days, and there are none predicted any time soon. The “Gore Minimum” is upon us! I hope him and his carbon footprint go bankrupt and never show their face in public again. Pseudo science nitwits!
QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for almost 42 days and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.
“It’s the larger 200+ ft. drop that might well cause some problems...”
I don’t believe that will happen, of course. But were it to become true, there would be some advantages as well.
Some banned off-shore drilling would no longer be off-shore, fer instance.
And I’d be even farther from the east cost!
when I was younger, we were warned about global cooling....so this is no surprize to us older folks...
And, it would be quite "fragrant" near those unusable ports......
I was working/going to school that decade, but I’ve seen copies of Time (or was it ‘Newsweak’) that carried that message ...
Solar Cycle 24 is overdue to ramp up. If we don't see significant sunspot activity by New Years, then it looks like we are in a minimum.
Global warming would involve more rainfall globally, which would improve agriculture. It would also make vast stretches of Canada and Siberia more temperate, again improving agricultural output.
Global cooling would kill farming in the northern MidWest.
bump for a careful read.
“From NASA’s site:
Solar Cycle 24 is overdue to ramp up. If we don’t see significant sunspot activity by New Years, then it looks like we are in a minimum.”
Good point
“I remember a Russian Astrophyisist putting up a an open wager of $ 10,000 to any global warming proponent that the earth was going to start cooling soon before it got hotter due to lower output by the sun.”
Has he paid up yet?
“bump for a careful read.”
Ditto
“For what it is worth, from today’s spaceweather.com:
QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for almost 42 days and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.”
ping
“You are absolutely correct. Even with a mini ice age, we would be praying for global warming.”
Amen
pinging others.
How do we get more coast?
Eight inches of snow in Wyoming...in August - Short video
19 Aug 09 – Snow in the Big Horn Mountains in northern Wyoming.
I've been toying with getting a bumper sticker that reads:
CLIMATE CHANGER
I would run mine more,...but the high price of gas has me restraining myself.
The Cooling World
Newsweek, April 28, 1975
www.denisdutton.com
Here is the text of Newsweek’s 1975 story on the trend toward global cooling. It may look foolish today, but in fact world temperatures had been falling since about 1940. It was around 1979 that they reversed direction and resumed the general rise that had begun in the 1880s, bringing us today back to around 1940 levels. A PDF of the original is available here. A fine short history of warming and cooling scares has recently been produced. It is available here...
http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
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