Skip to comments.Report: Closing Schools Wouldn't Ward Off Virus
Posted on 08/25/2009 7:28:08 AM PDT by BenLurkin
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said Tuesday that a massive school closing wouldn't stop the spread of the swine flu virus, saying vaccinations must be the defense against a menace that one report said could infect up to half of the population.
"What we know is that we have the virus right now traveling around the United States," Sebelius said in a nationally broadcast interview. "And having children in a learning situation is beneficial ... What we learned last spring is that shutting a school down sort of pre-emptively doesn't stop the virus from spreading."
Sebelius appeared on NBC's "Today" show one day after a special presidential advisory panel presented a grim report to the Obama White House, saying among other things that a "plausible scenario" for the United States later this year is wide-scale infections, possibly 30,000 to 90,000 deaths, mostly among young children and young adults, and perhaps as many as 300,000 sick enough to require intensive care unit treatment at hospitals.
Asked in the interview what people should do while awaiting the arrival of a vaccine, with first supplies likely by October but most not until the Thanksgiving season, Sebelius said: "I think it's important that people begin to anticipate that we will have a vaccine. We think it's likely that we're going to need two shots for the vaccine."
She said people should plan ahead for this, particularly those with pre-existing medical conditions, pregnant women and health care industry workers.
Sebelius said federal health authorities also are recommending that people should immediately get their regular "seasonal" flu vaccine to bolster their health for the scenario yet to play out later this year regarding the swine flu virus.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbs2.com ...
classes will move on-line if swine flu closes campus
Stop it. You’re not allowed to make sense. ;-)
I guess mass vaccinations are the next thing to be shoved down our throats.
I may die from H1N1, I dont know, but they are going to have to run me down and force that needle in my arm. I get the flu every time I take one of their cure-all flu shots.
It is spreading in the southern hemisphere:
In Australia, the state of Victoria, the hardest hit so far, reported this week that swine H1N1 now accounts for 99 per cent of all flu cases. It is a similar story in South America. In Chile, swine H1N1 is also outrunning the seasonal virus. “Ninety-eight per cent of the flu cases we have now are caused by H1N1,” Chile’s under-secretary of public health, Jeanette Vega, told a pandemic summit in Cancún, Mexico, last week. “The seasonal vaccine is useless.”
In Argentina, where authorities in the capital Buenos Aires declared a health emergency last week, health minister Juan Manzur says 90 per cent of the flu virus in circulation is swine H1N1.
SWINE FLU!!!! AAAAAAAAGH!!!!!
I’m sick to death of hearing about this ridiculous “H1N1” flu!!! It is NO more deadly than any other form of flu, for cryin’ out loud.
Swine flu is going to kill us all!!!
Bird flu is going to kill us all!!!
SARS is going to kill us all!!!
SHE IS FREAKING LYING! 90,000 deaths? Dr. Rosenfeld on Sunday said pandemic in terms of large numbers but so far the h1n1 is very mild.
I am becoming a conspiracy nut. Do I trust the good doc whose video I just rewatched on FNC or Seblius?
I don’t believe anything anyone in this administration says.
For goodness sakes, SOMEONE PLEASE REPORT ME TO THE GOVERNMENT.
I doubt that. Seems that every 'bug' I've had for the 15 years is one that I caught from one of my kids who toted it home from school. I wonder just how often the desks & lockers in public schools get sanitized. Once a day? Once a month? Once every semester? Ever?
Oh, silly... the desks get sanitized on the last day of school, right before they're stacked up for the summer.
My friends in Australia are getting hammered with it. They all lived, BTW.
I have never had a flu shot and I’m not taking one now. Watch them try to force parents to have their school age children immunized with something that has not even been tested yet. It is a foregone conclusion that I will die of something - but I do try to eliminate all potential causes and I choose to believe that what comes out of a government wielded needle as the most likely!
It’s a mild flu. I have no intention of getting vaccinated for it.
The flu vaccine has been known to cause cases of guillian -Barr syndrome ( I think I spelled it correctly) They can vaccinate my dead a$$!
I could always avoid the flu by avoiding parents. Schools and colleges are notorious Petri Dishes.
I had a boss once who had twins in day care. Every cold or flu that was going around, he brought in, every time. Finally I told him if he was sick and came into my office I'd brain him with a chair. He was a walking bioterror weapon.
This another manufactured “crisis” to draw attention away from Ozero’s disasterous reign.
You take the vaccination first Kathy, and we’ll see what it does to you.
This swine flu and the yet to come vaccine is nothing more than an advertising campaign for federal intervention “to save us” and pay off the pharmaceuticals.
A 26 year old man from Brazil recently died (8/14) of H1N1 on Martha’s Vineyard. He had no underlying health conditions.
Sorry, your statement is simply untrue.
My daughter’s kindergarten teacher had all of us bring in Clorox wipes, Lysol spray and hand sanitizer. The lady was obsessive about cleaning the classroom. Before they left the room each day, every kid wiped down everything.
Yet, my daughter ended up with 37 days that she was sick.
When she got it, my little one got it and then the little one ended up with a UTI because of a tipped kidney.
I pulled her out of school and both built up some immunity. They are rarely sick and mostly sniffles.
Quarantine is the only way to stop an epidemic.
You mean no “diagnosed” underlying health conditions.
I’d like to see the autopsy on him.
Drug use? Overweight? Smoker?
Your article says this...
“The virus appears to have sent hoards of people to their beds, but few - in percentage terms - to the hospital.”
It’s a flu. People get it no matter what the Letters and Numbers it’s tagged with. I’m not seeing 90,000 dead in the Southern Hemisphere.
Well, how many have died from this most heinous threat to mankind?
It’s hard to know how many it will kill this winter. The 90k number is a scenario in which it kills a little less than three times the number the regular flu kills each year in the US (34,000 to 36,000). It is my hope that the vaccine is an effective one and that prevention measures and general awareness lower that 90k figure significantly.
>>Its hard to know how many it will kill this winter.<<
It’s winter where your article takes place. Where are all the deaths?
They are drumming up a crisis. Remember, this flu has not only been around for almost a year by Christmas, but also has a component of the same flu we got as kids. That’s why seniors are not high on the list of vaccines. They have immunities. LOTS of people have already built immunities to this.
There is also the fact that the farther away a flu gets from ground zero, the weaker it is. A flu is not designed to kill a host. It is designed to perpetuate itself. If the flu killed everyone who got it, the flu would die out quickly. People are going to get sick. Those who get secondary infections could be in trouble. We have antibiotics to treat secondary infections.
If people were dropping like flies in the southern hemisphere, I’d be concerned. They aren’t. They are getting the flu, it sucks but they recover.
He doesn't look like he missed many meals. And what else was he into.
Do you really expect that doctors in Martha's Vineyard to be talking freely? Really? Especially if this is a manufactured crisis? Come on!
Let’s go more to the point: CFR (case fatality rate) for H1N1 is probably around 0.5%. There was a recent estimate here of 1%, but with possible underreporting of total cases, we’re probably back down to 0.5%.
This makes H1N1 roughly 5 times more deadly than the typical seasonal flu. Aside from that, we have no herd immunity, so we’re looking at probable widespread infection in the US come flu season.
If we do absolutely nothing on vaccine, 1/3rd of US population infected over the next two years (a reasonable estimate given past history of spread of new viruses such as this one) would produce around 500,000 deaths. This would be roughly 160 times as many people as died in 9/11. Of course, these would be slow, rolling, less noticeable deaths over the course of a couple of years, instead of one sudden and dramatic event.
That’s NEVER going to happen, since we’re looking at widespread vaccination that will minimize the impact of this bug. But a statement that this flu is “simply no worse than the regular flu” is asininely wrong.
Only a ‘remain at home’ restriction would make a difference. Travel would have to be highly regulated. It wouldn’t be long before the bug would start decimating law enforcement and the military especially (bivouacing would make it spread like mad among the military - there’s an article about the 61 reporting new AF cadets that caught the bug and were quarantined.)
Before long, they wouldn’t be able to enforce the order, but people will stay put to protect themselves. You may also see a culling of household pets since the bug has shown an ability to jump from human to animal and back again.
All depends on how effective the shot’s going to be, and whether the anti-virals will stand up to what’s coming, if it comes.
If it’s bad enough, will they name it ‘Captain Tripps?’
Calm down, dear lol.:)
>>Aside from that, we have no herd immunity,<<
Um, look up the reason why seniors are low on the priority list. “The experts” state that seniors have immunity to one component of this flu, because most likely, they already had that part.
This is a manufactured crisis.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the reason why they won’t close schools is because, IF and I mean if, it does go to pandemic, they don’t want to close the borders.
HOWEVER - having said that - I WILL give it this.
We AREN’T seeing a huge number of deaths in Australia. Given some of the past history of this bug to date I would’ve expected a lot more deaths by now.
So it may be that it has recently taken a turn for the milder.
True. A more accurate statement on my part would have been "We have LOW herd immunity," or "Our population below about age 52 reportedly has no immunity."
Uhhh...good question but one asked without really knowing the answer...obviously. If the poster had really KNOWN the answer...they would have known that Australia has been hit hard...as well as Argentina. Argentina is just coming out of their season...they've experienced about a 2% mortality rate and their hospital beds have been so full that there has been no room. It is just now that beds are available.
So...ask yourself: If a normal mortality rate for seasonal flu is .1%...and we are experiencing a 1% mortality rate...and at the height it could be as high as 2%...doing a little math...and if 40% get it...we could see 1.2-2 million deaths...compared to 36K.
The good news coming out of the southern hemisphere is that it is not mutating. The DNA sequence is still the same as that seen last spring. That was the biggest fear.
Since they don’t really care how many are infected; the truth is that they really only care to ensure that the maximum number of parents are scared into gettng their kids vaccinated. Then, when the vaccine doesn’t work and the kids are infected because the schools won’t take the proper precautions, the maximum number of child bearing age adults will be sickened and die. And that’s precisely what they want to happen.
The question that makes sense is this.
“Is the H1N1 flu ravishing the population there?”
2% is ravishing? I found this
You’re talking about 60 deaths, with no reporting on economic condition, preexisting conditions or health care. They are reporting 4000 cases in total.
I’m not seeing 90,000 deaths.
Not all of the Southern hemisphere is tropical.
There’s not much that I can add to my post 29. I certainly hope that the 90k number ends up being a vast overestimation of the number of dead this flu season.
A couple things of note. The had restrictions...closed schools...social isolation. Also...they stopped testing after a certain point...actual number of cases/deaths are much higher (just as actual cases in US is higher...because we ahve stopped testing by and large).
Cases are not deaths.
The flu happens.
With the exception of being pregnant, this was a very healthy 30ish year old woman.
Nobody says they are. But when you have more cases than normal...even when the mortality rate is the same...that means the total number is more.
Nobody is saying the world is coming to an end either...but 90K deaths...when the % of the population getting the flu increases 2-3X...it only follows that the death rate will too. Kinda logical.
It seems many who have died from this were in places like Indonesia or other third world cesspools, where people die from hangnails and scraped knees.
I am not the least bit worried about Swine flu. Neither am I worried about any other flu. The news media, already insane over the flu anyway (you have to get your flu shot! You have to get your flu shot! You have to get your flu shot!), have latched onto the Swine flu so they will have something to sensationalize, and they’re riding it for all it’s worth. They did the same with Bird Flu, SARS, and they even tried it with MRSA, but they haven’t been as successful with that one as with the others.
Since idiot parents bring their bored kids to the mall, movie theater, etc., where said kids interact with their peers and defeat the purpose of the school closures.