Posted on 08/27/2009 3:06:19 PM PDT by Clive
This image will periodically update.
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Erica?
I don’t like the location of possible formation at 30W—10N.
Me neither.
It is the right place at the right time.
A little low for this time of year. Could be in line for some trouble.
I vote for Elizabeth. Then all 4 members of my family will have been named in this hurricane season. Anna, Bill, Danny (Dani) and E? lol
If she is like the Elizabeth in my family, then we are in for a heck of storm.........
lol Mine is a redhead.
Mine is my Mother in Law and a hippie who is a die-hard democrat and her husband is a Jewish shrink.
Oh yeah, I have two Mother in Laws!
Hurricane E.... is just what the blue states deserve...
No, Mary Jo, she's finally rising from her watery grave.
Aren’t they called hurricanes on our side of the world?
Yes, when they get strong enough.
Tropical Cyclone is the generic term for heat generated intense cyclonic circulation arising in tropical waters.
Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, Hurricanes and Typhoons are all Tropical Cyclones.
The ones to watch are the ones generating off he coast of Africa near the Cape Verde Islands and then grow stronger as they cross the Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles. Those are nicknamed Cape Verde Storms.
See post #6. Trouble for Puerto Rico.
We sure don’t need this.
Thanks - good information to have...
Headline: “ Presidential Compound on Marxist Vinyard, Inundated by Tidal Surge.Marine One Rescues Staff, Leaves Obama behind.”
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.I am still keeping an eye on it although it will probably dissipate before affecting land. But it is still at 10N and is still on the Mariner's i-2-3 Rule chart.
The IR image is showing a much more diffuse system than it was when it was at 10N 30w (See my Reply 6 above for the IR image, which automatically updates)
NOAA still shows it as low probability for tropical cyclone formation but I suspect that is just out of an excess of caution.
It is back on the Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule chart and NOAA now considers it to ba a medium probability for tropical cyclone formation.
Here is this morning's report:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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We are back to HIGH probability, according to NHC at 8:00 am
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
NNNN
These are the models for the track of the system as of 2 am. 8 am models should be out soon.
This system looks more likely to cross the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean. It has been following the tenth parallel ever since it arose off the coast of Africa.
Thanks for the ping.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
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