Skip to comments."Democrats" could face severe losses in 2010 governors' races
Posted on 09/11/2009 11:20:36 PM PDT by dangus
Arkansas (Beebe): Safe D
Colorado (Ritter): Leans R
Illinois (Quinn): Leans R ***
Iowa (Culver): Leans R
Maryland (O'Malley): Likely D
Massachusetts (Patrick): Leans R
New York (Patterson): Tossup ***
Ohio (Strickland): Tossup
DEMOCRAT-HELD OPEN SEAT
Kansas: Likely R
Maine: Leans D*
Michigan: Leans R
New Mexico: Likely D
Oklahoma: Likely R
Oregon: Leans D*
Tennessee: Leans R
Wyoming: leans D**
REPUBLICAN-HELD OPEN SEAT
Alabama: Safe R
Florida: Likely R
Hawaii: Likely D
Rhode Island: Leans D*
South Carolina: Likely R
South Dakota: Likely R
Alaska (Parnell): Likely R
Arizona (Brewer): Unknown*
Connecticut (Rell): Safe R
Idaho (Otter): Safe R
Nebraska (Heineman): Safe R
Nevada (Gibbobs): Leans R ***
Texas (Perry): Safe R
Utah (Herbert): Likely R*
I don't claim any inside knowledge or special insight into local situations; these predictions are based on any available polling data, statewide voting trends, and news accounts about potential candidates. I welcome any alternate opinions, or further information about local circumstances. All speculation weighs outcomes of various match-ups and eligibilities according to cumulative likelihoods.
* Insufficient polling data for individual candidates; supposition based on trends of popularity of parties.
** Current governor is very popular, but barred from running under current statute; A challenge to the constitutionality of the law is likely.
*** Governor's party is more likely to retain control if the incumbent is ousted in primary.
I’m calling it here-and-now—the next Governor of PA will be Tom Corbett, the current (R) Attorney General.
As for Arizona, Brewer has said she plans to run. After Wacky Janet the Lesbo bankrupted the state, I’m pretty confident that Brewer will be elected. IMHO.
When will the dems realize they are being asked to commit suicide for Obama’s FDR fantasy?
What are you predicting for 2009’s governors’ races in VA and NJ?
Come on Arkansas, get rid of the rats! I don’t care how ‘conservative’ rats say they are, they are still rats and therefore liberals deep down!
your analysis seems lausible.
don’t forget the two races in 09 the normals are likely to pick up.
There aren’t even any declared, let alone potential, candidates for most of the AR statewide offices next year (only one for Lt Governor). It’s hard to overstate how badly Huckster crippled the state GOP, setting it back 4 decades during the course of his term (in 1967, we had three Republicans in major office there - in 2009, we have one, down from 5 under Huckster). All efforts there despite second-tier candidates, are going to be focused on taking down the vulnerable Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Beebe will probably get a pass.
Man that sucks. I felt the same thing happened here in NM when Richardson got reelected. I didn’t hear about any candidate and then some time around the election some old guy comes on TV and he happens to be the candidate for governor. Pretty sad.
Seeing is believing. “All of politics” is really too unstable to be so sure about anything. Leftists are so “power drunk” that they really will do anything in order to remain in power for as close to forever as possible.
I couldn’t rate IL as “leans R” with or without Quinn, it’s still a “lean D.”
MA is complicated, it will be a 3-way race. Patrick is badly vulnerable, but the Dem that was likely to challenge him in the primary opted to switch to run as an Indy (Tim Cahill), and there were also be one of two very far-left RINOs running nominated. Cahill, the Indy, is the best bet for center-right voters, and I think he has a slight edge, but would put it all, 3 way, as a tossup.
NY is R with Paterson, lean D with Cuomo, tossup if Hillary vs. Rudy.
OH may be a lean R, actually.
ME hasn’t elected a GOP Governor since 1990, so I’d put it as tossup over party fatigue, but whomever wins will win by only a plurality, they have a few 3rd parties there that do well. An astonishing 41 (!) candidates are listed as possible entries for all parties.
NM I’d rate as potential tossup. Denish will inherit baggage from Richardson (who has yet another scandal just this week from a boating accident) and if the R’s put up someone decent, they could take it back.
OR - The Dems may have a brutal primary between the Sec of State Bradbury and ex-Gov. Kitzhaber, and if the R’s put up someone respectable, could pull off a win (and OR has gone 28 years without a GOP Governor, obvious party fatigue), I rate this as tossup.
WY - I’m unclear what’s going on here. I thought the term limits was in effect, it states 2 term max. I’d imagine if Freudenthal tries to challenge that, it may bite him. I’d put that alone as a lean R.
HI - I’d still put it at tossup, we have our only real first-tier candidate with Lt Gov Aiona facing off against a too-old Haole moonbat, Abercrombie (and even he may not win the nomination, since the Honolulu Mayor is running, too). Despite it being a fairly heavy Dem lean state, many of the Gubernatorial races have been close over the years, but with the Dems tending to prevail by a modest margin.
RI - Actually, this is a lean I, since the leftist ex-RINO turned Indy Linc Chafee is running, and he will be even more liberal than the eventual Dem nominee, nevermind the R candidate. However, if the R makes a race of it, he might get a plurality if all the liberals split between Chafee and the Dem.
SC - Leans R, since we’re still having that ugly situation down there that has a slim chance of benefitting the Dems.
AZ - I would put it as lean R, regardless of the nominee
CT - I’ve been told Rell may not run again, in which case, it goes to tossup, if not lean D
NV - with Gibbons, leans D, with Sandoval, leans R
Ritter (D) in Colorado is in trouble.
What was worse in ‘06, the initial GOP nominee quit in NM and John Dendahl, the party chair, had to swiftly fill in (for all the good that did). Dendahl knows the epic-level rodent corruption in the state and he actually moved out of state shortly after the election, he didn’t feel safe there, and it was hard to blame him (there was an article he wrote, a tell-all of sorts, outlining what exactly happened - I’ve forgotten the link, you might’ve read it).
I’m not sure who should run for our side, I think Allen Weh has baggage, and the fact he was chair for the ‘08 cycle, the worst the state has seen for the GOP since, what, 1964, means he doesn’t look all that great. Heather Wilson looks a no-go. The rest are second-tiers. I still believe Denish is very vulnerable, and Richardson, who is as creepy and as crooked as they come, may end up costing her the office (and frankly, I think the party should play up that she put up with his sexual harrassment in order to get the office and kept her mouth shut, which is inexcusable).
1. I see no way Patterson wins the NY Dem Primary. Since the only way we can win the seat is if Patterson is the nominee, I see GOP chances as pretty bleak.
2. Florida isn't likely R. Leans R definitely.
There is simply NO WAY Paterson wins the Democratic nomination against Cuomo. If by some miracle, Paterson were to win the Democratic nomination, he'd get slaughtered in the elections.
Meanwhile, Giuliani has yet to confirm that he's going to run. He's been playing coy as usual. And even if Giuliani runs, he's going to find it pretty hard to beat Cuomo. As for Hilary, I really doubt if she even wants to be Governor of any state. She still wants the presidency, and is secretly glad 0bama is slashing and burning.
The Latest Dem Gift to Republicans: House Plans to Admonish Rep. Wilson Over Outburst
How nice of Dems to promote Joe Wilson---a towering leader of national stature---with the ability to organize huge numbers of people.
Fully 75% of Americans polled agrees with Joe Wilson calling Ohaha a liar.
Thanks to the Dems, Republicans have a viable 2012 presidential candidate. Can't wait for Joe Wilson's debates with Ohaha.
See Joe Wilson. See Wilson run. See Wilson debate Ohaha.
After what Granholm has done to the state I don’t see MI returning a Democrat to Lansing. It helps that the Kwame machine has been exposed and dismantled as well. Here’s hoping the R’s don’t nominate a douchebag in the election.
This one goes Democrat.
If you are counting on votes counting in the next election,then count you ACORN voter registration before it’s too late.
Maryland: O’Malley will likely face the former Republican governor (Ehrlich) that he beat last time. There’s a good chance Ehrlich will win. O’Malley has been almost invisible for that last two years, and only makes the news now when announcing state budget cuts every few weeks.
if hes not given the chance to run,which i don’t believe he will be,then many of the people that came out for zero are likely to stay home.
Hillary vs Rudy would be a fun race. She has no executive experience while Gov. is about as far as people will trust Rudy.
Is Brewer a RINO?
“What are you predicting for 2009s governors races in VA and NJ”?
...I live in Richmond and have been volunteering at McDonnell HQ. He’s been ranging between 9-14 points ahead so far. Dems are trying to get him in a “macaca” moment with his thesis from 20 years ago about his distaste for working Mom’s. Doesn’t seem to be sticking.
“After what Granholm has done to the state I dont see MI returning a Democrat to Lansing.”
In the 2006 election granholm had 43% approval and won the state with 57% of the vote. There’s massive voter fraud in MI and the crooked RINO state attorney general won’t do a thing about it. In addition, it’s estimated that 600,000 productive citizens have left the state since the Berkeley communist was elected governor. The leeches clearly outnumber productive citizens. Entire networks of shyster lawyers and crooked quacks have risen in MI to assure lazy slugs qualify for workmen’s comps or SS disability.
MI is lost for a generation unless conservatives take over Washington and send federal investigator teams in to arrest the entire rotten political structure.
I also pointed out that there were about 100 Democratic house seats that the GOP could likely gain
I agree with this statement, however the Republicans will have to grow a set real quick!
I USED to be a purist...but after seeing what happened last November and what is happening NOW, I will vote for a RINO in the General everytime.
Detroit people are STUCK ON STUPID and will elect ANY and EVERY DEMOCRTA they can, and then BLAME their Pathetic lives on Republicans!
Likely my foot. Unless Brownback does something incredibly stupid - and even if he does - he's going to win next year. The Democrats aren't running anyone against him.
Brewer won’t make it through the primary in Arizona. She has attacked republicans worse then a democrat would.
Nope, she won't make it through the primaries. Very unpopular with the base.
We need to tie ACORN around Obama’s neck.
Polling shows both Republican candidates ahead by similar, relatively large margins. New Jersey, however, is a much more dynamic race. So I’d say Virginia is likely to almost safely R; New Jersey is between leaning and likely R.
bump to the top
Unless someone has dirt on Paterson on the Dem side, I don't see him necessarily gracefully stepping aside. Cuomo wants the nomination, but he wants it without getting his hands dirty. He knows if he takes on Paterson head-on, he'll harm his standing with Black voters, and while they may not flock to the Republican candidate, they could angrily sit out the general, and that's not something Cuomo can afford.
"Meanwhile, Giuliani has yet to confirm that he's going to run. He's been playing coy as usual. And even if Giuliani runs, he's going to find it pretty hard to beat Cuomo."
Depends upon how Cuomo gets the nomination, if he does. I think Cuomo's popularity is highly overinflated, and he's never faced a serious opponent.
"As for Hilary, I really doubt if she even wants to be Governor of any state. She still wants the presidency, and is secretly glad 0bama is slashing and burning."
Of course she doesn't want the Governorship, any more than she wanted the Senate seat (no more than Slick Willard in MA), these were all nothing but stepping stones to the Presidency. One thing Giuliani could use against her, if she takes out Paterson, is to hit her repeatedly that she has no intention of staying in Albany, and wants to take on a damaged Zero in '12 (that'll REALLY go over well with Black NY voters).
I wouldn’t bet the farm on that, even if we put up one of the second tier women candidates, which might not be such a bad idea.
So you’ll vote for liberal Democrats running as Republicans. Got it.
We have been bleeding people so fast it isn't funny anymore.
They will be sorry if they do that.
My DH thinks that people should only be allowed to hold TWO elected offices in their lifetime. I am starting to agree with him.
Let's see here...
IL - Well, on the RAT side it's going to be a brutal primary between Quinn and slick talking pampered politician's kid, state Comptroller Dan Hynes (I wrongly predicted Hynes would beat Obama in the 2004 RAT primary for Senate). Oddly enough the race will be about the perception that Quinn is too much of an insider and tainted by Blago, where the in reality the opposite is true -- Hynes is the party insider and the ultimate combiner. Right now Quinn has a 49% approval-47% disapproval with voters, certainly vulnerable in both the primary and the general. On the GOP side, I suppose combiner Dillard is the slight favorite now due to clout and support from heavy hitters like Jim Thompson, but it's possible to take him out in the primary and the field is wide open with everyone except Andjewski and Schillerstorm having a decent chance of winning the nomination at this point. In certain circumstances -- say a Matt Murphy (R) vs. Pat Quinn (D) race, I would put it as a "lean R", but given the fact the IL GOP is a joke and always manages to shoot themselves in the foot, I'm going to assume lean D at this point in time.
MA - Surprisingly, I would say Tim Cahill (Independent, former Dem) is the favorite at this point, since voters are fed up with Deval Patrick but I doubt they will be willing to return to RINO rule after the whole 1991-2007 RINO era fresh on voters minds, plus Republicans hardly ever win in this state it's amazing that RINOs held the office for 16 years.
NY - Paterson is toast if he's the RAT nominee, but I'm guessing Cuomo runs and takes out Paterson in the primary. I don't see any Republican besides Rudy being able to defeat the Cuomo dynasty.
OH - Ohio has been THE biggest swing state in the nation to determine "how it goes, so goes the nation" lately and I think the same will be true in 2010. I'd say tossup between Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)
ME - I'd say tossup, way too early to tell. The GOP could have an opening due to party fatigue, but they'd need to run a decent candidate.
NM - I'd have to say lean D, since Richardson won't be on the ballot. However if his Lt. Governor is the nominee the GOP could possibly tie her to his failed governorship. NM just seems to have treaded pretty strongly RAT lately and has become a big time welfare state. From my initial glance, Susana Martinez might be a good choice for the GOP nominate in this heavily Hispanic state. Problem is, I don't know if she's a RINO or not.
OR - Similar problem with neighboring Washington state -- every election it looks like the GOP is going to finally get back the Governor's mansion after decades in the wilderness, but the RAT fraud and GOTV effort thwarts them. I'd say lean D because it seems all the GOP candidates are unknown.
WY - This state SHOULD normally safe R for Governor, and would be R today if it weren't for Eli Bebout managing to drop the ball in 2002. Alas, Freudenthal is now one of the most "popular" Governors in the U.S., and is seen as "above" partisan politics (even though he endorsed the marxist Hussein Obama in the RAT primary) and should easily be re-elected if he's not term limited. If he is out of the picture, the state should default to its GOP roots easily.
HI - Id have to say tossup, surprising for this normally staunch RAT state, as Lt. Gov Aiona will be a strong candidate for the GOP if he's the nominee. However, Abercrombie is also very strong and popular with rank and file Hawaiian voters. Situation might change if other people are nominated in the primaries.
RI - I'd have to say tossup, with State Rep. Joe Trillo (R), A.G. Patrick Lynch (D), and marxist "Independent" Lincoln Chafee almost certain as the three choices on the ballot. The only chance Trillo has is if the two lefties beat the living cr@p out of each other enough over the moonbat vote that he sneaks in with 1/3rd of the remaining voters pulling the GOP lever.
SC - The state is usually pretty strong Republican, but there's a slight chance the RATs could pull off an upset. Again, it depends on who each party nominates.
AZ - Agree on this one, I would put it as lean R, regardless of the nominee.
CT - Lean RINO if the worthless but somehow popular Jodi Rell runs again, otherwise likely D.
NV - I don't think any RAT candidate has officially announced yet. Tossup.
And I think John Kasich will be the next governor of Ohio. If Strickland by some chance is re elected then we will deserve more what he has created!
I agree that Beebe will likely get a pass, unless he does a 180 on the polls. Recent polling reveals Senator Blanche Lincoln to be extremely vulnerable, but the same polls show Beebe with a superb approval rating.
Cuomo has been imitating his father’s Hamlet act, and knows that he’ll piss off the black establishment. I think there’s a good chance he’ll run for reelection for AG.
So nice to learn you’re working for McDonnell campaign! I love to get actively involved too. Thanks for telling me the “thesis” bombshell isn’t inflicting the anticipated damage. Mr. Dirty Deeds deserves a resounding defeat.
Thanks, albie, for replying to me, and thank you too, Dangus.
“ANY Republican is better than ANY DEMOCRAT....period.”
I wish our standards for party membership were high enough to make that absolute statement an indisputable fact.
It’s true the vast majority of the time of course but not 100%.
For legislative seats moreso than Executive potions. Legislatures are mostly about voting record and party control. Usually I don’t back third party congressional candidates but I’m backing the conservative party candidate in the NY special election because the Republican is an ultra-RINO, pro-partial birth, pro-gay, pro-union piece of detritus who really oughta take more votes from the dem than from the Conservative candidate. She was selected, not elected to run for the seat. Even if the rat wins as embarrassing as that would be that will allow a real Republican to run in 2010 without having to go through a RINO incumbent backed with party dollars.
Mark Kirk (future party switch threat) is likely gonna be the Republican senate candidate in my state. He is so far to the left there are several rats in the state legislature that are to his right. None are running against him of course or are likely to win a statewide primary but if one did....
Governorships are mostly about leadership.
Big time RINO Governors (not talking just lukewarm types) who govern just like rats and destroy their state GOPs are actually even more harmful than the rats.
Like imprisoned ex-Guv George Ryan here in Illinois and his younger clone Kirk Dillard. In Ryan’s case he was opposed by a moderate rat who would have been slightly better and in Mass. in 1990 an actual conservative managed to win the rat nod, he was far better than the RINO disaster William Weld. I would actually have voted for the dem if I could have voted in those 2 elections! Those are exceptions of course. 9 times out of ten the rat is commie disaster and when presented with 2 unacceptable choices like say Arnold Kennedy Schwarzenegger and any California democrat, the proper choice would have been none of the above.
If Dillard is nominated I forsee not voting for him in the general because he’s corrupt slime who will do more harm than good.
I wouldn’t vote against lukewarm Governors like Perry or Pawlenty or moderate candidates like Rudy but there is a line where it becomes counter-productive if they govern too far to the left or are incompetent. Don Scumquist of TN is an interesting case, he voted conservative in congress but turned out to be a disaster as Governor.
Thankfully Crist isn’t running in Florida, opting for the Senate instead. Redistricting would have been the only reason I’d consider it worthwhile to reelect him.
You have your own designated hitter?
Or did you mean your husband?. ;)