It won’t surprise at all if he escapes to France, I think he’ll try if he gets the chance. I don’t think France will be as welcoming as it was before; I’m hoping that Sarkozy will even allow extradition; this is probably just wishful thinking on my part, but Sarkozy is so much better than any previous French president that it gives me hope that he’ll do the right thing.
I get the impression that the general feeling among the French was "Uncultured America persecuting an Artist" until the facts came back to the surface. Then among the lower and middle classes it became "America wants rapist returned for punishment". I don't know about the upper class and the arts crowd over there. Even the Hollywood crowd here has largely shut up (or the media is stifling them) when the public opinion about him switched from "persecuted director" to "pervert scumbag who drugged and anally raped a 13-year old".