Almost directly correlated to the dollar. And so for the last 10 or so years.
Posted on 10/20/2009 6:38:23 PM PDT by blam
A Big, Fat Stock Market Selloff
By Eric Fry
10/20/09 Laguna Beach, California – Stocks prices are very, very high… Our contrarian colleagues over at The 5-Minute Forecast continuously lament…which means that the collective anxiety of investors is very, very low. Our colleagues don’t mind that a rising stock market is adding trillions of dollars to the asset side of household balance sheets. That’s good news. But the worrisome part is that a falling stock market could erase those trillions from the ledger just as quickly as they first appeared. And as our colleagues correctly point out, rising share prices, coincident with falling investor anxiety, usually adds up to a big, fat stock market selloff…
[snip]
Before the end of Oct we will see a major correction. I am completely in cash now.
I am wondering if it happens before Halloween. The Dow is struggling to hold 10,000. I think it’s failure to hold 10,000 and the resistance it keeps hitting there will be a catalyst.
This is what I am thinking. It may go before the end of the month. We closed at 10.041.48.
Just after 12 noon we dipped below 10,000 - twice.
Well there’s never been a black Wednesday, so maybe tomorrow
Yup. See here.
October ALWAYS has a surprise, and the 10k mark seems like solid resistance, so tomorrow could be the day, but I am thinking early to mid next week.
All the stocks in my portfolio continue to pay dividends. Some are paying ten or fifteen percent on my original investment.
Now why should I sell?
EVERYONE wants a sell off or retracement to take the speculators out of the price.
Gold is in the had of the speculators. Move the dollar to 76 and you will see 50 points drop from spot gold in the same day.
Oil is in the hand of the speculators. Break 80 tomorrow with the dollar down and gold up and it is an easy long play. For no other reason than that is how things work when the markets are in the hands of speculators and not prices.
Earnings crushed today and the market was down. Why? Read above and look at today’s charts.
Why put equities into cash? P&G pays dividends selling essentials. Dollar pays nothing sells nothing and is aproaching Trinity.
I don't think so. Instability with high volumes precedes crashes. I don't see that happening this season. I'm in commodities, especially gold and even gold miners.
Nope. Don't see it.
Life (and theories thereof) would be so much easier if it did, but...
China is buying up oil on the open market, and the economy in India is back to normal, with people trading in bikes and scooters for cars. And it’s going to be a cold winter....
That’s your demand.
I hope your commodities had copper (up 180%) and not just gold (15%).
The largest wheat buyer for hedging buys something like 200k contracts on the commodities market. Yet 20 million are traded. What does that tell you?
Gold bugs should talk to the oil bugs that were long at $140. I’m a big Harry Dent fan, so I would never poo-poo a commodities bubble trader at this time. I’m just saying, it’s a trade, not an investment.
What drove it to $140+ last year? Consumer demand, holiday travel, cold...summer?
It’s a dollar trade to a point. After that the speculators take over and get burned or win just like anyone else.
If you are an Options trader, taking a quick short position could be a cheap way to make big bucks, with little downside.
Yesterday I executed a SELL order and cashed out everything. I regained about 40% above what the low point was. That’s good enough for me considering I improved upon my original investments, although in deflated dollar value, the gains are less in 2009 dollars compared to the 2000-2006 dollars I put in. But I see another down cycle because the economy is not as rosy as government propaganda is trying to lead people to believe.
No greed here. Just good fiscal planning with cash opportunity’s waiting.
You will need long stops for this play. Like I said, everyone expects it, but that was 1000 points ago for fibs and E-Waves.
Let it turn on its own. Never try to pick a top or a bottom.
Something will come along? Maybe like the dead economy. The market is being driven by Fed money. The eocnomy and unemployment situation is horrible.
Almost directly correlated to the dollar. And so for the last 10 or so years.
Bump for end of Oct. revisit!!!!!!!!!! GL to all!!!
I can’t say I agree with that theory. E-Waves and fibs are right on target and it wasn’t 1000 points ago. The market never turns on its own. The market is people and it’s peoples perception reading and moving the charts. Not all see the market from the same perspective. If they can’t pick the tops and bottoms they aren’t getting the lions share.
If one understands the language the charts will speak clearly as to what they are going to do next.
I got out of BHP and FCX a couple of weeks ago after tripling in a few months. They have been soaring since and I, not a “trader” and not having a trader’s steel nerves, clench my teeth as I watch those stocks continue to rise as if sucking helium into a thin balloon. It is that picture that finally prevents me from jumping back in.
Wow! If we can agree to start with March 2009, please post your charts.
The “market are people” is an economic argument for rational markets and we simply have no starting point. :)
There are breakout and channel traders, but not one bottom or top technical trader. If you have a new niche or I am wrong, please tell me, so that I may profit from it.
Wow! If we can agree to start with March 2009, please post your charts.
The “market are people” is an economic argument for rational markets and we simply have no starting point. :)
There are breakout and channel traders, but not one bottom or top technical trader. If you have a new niche or I am wrong, please tell me, so that I may profit from it.
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Elliott-Waves are the nature of charting peoples/markets emotions. The markets emotions are repeated in predictable wave patterns. Fib extensions and retracements are my measuring instruments of choice. I day trade futures for a living. If I cant pick tops and bottoms my family won’t eat very well. If you are serious about learning send me a PM. I can recommend a mentor. This is not something you can figure out on a hit or miss basis.
E-Waves and fibs in day-trading futures! Now I am interested. Today dollar down and gold up gave a nice long gain on the E-mini. Yet when that same down dollar cracked 75 along with news of the pay tzar it was a collapse.
If you knew which way the market would go in the morning and then after 2pm (not knowing the Beige Book or the 75 crack or the pay tzar) to top and bottom the E-mini market, you are not a day-trader, but a psychic!
Again, outside of day-trading, your retracements to lows should have, but did not happen since March. Post your charts, if I’m wrong. If you are running intraday fibs, o.k. But no way can you run E-waves intraday on the E-mini unless you are on a tick chart (in which case they are not E-Waves, but your waves :).
In any case, you are right. I fear I’ve bogged down a thread. Sorry to all.
I’m also in copper, silver and Australia.
Day trading futures and analyzing the Dow are two different creatures with totally different methodologies. Although interrelated they are not traded the same IMO. I agree with the fact that E-Waves do not apply to intra-day analysis. My coach prefers the phrase "prognostic trading" opposed to the term "physic", either way I will take that as a compliment. And yes I did catch that run up yesterday from the open. I did not however catch the run down, although it was just as apparent as the morning run up. Reason being that I only trade for the first 60-90 min after open. News is not a determining factor other than the fact of exactly when news is about to hit. I then try to be out of trades until the frenzy is over. I don't care about the details of the news or where the dollar is at the time. That is totally irrelavant in my analysis. Plotting the fibs tells me all I need to know. They are the basis for E-Waves analysis, even though they don't apply to my intraday structure. The market repeats itself day in and day out. One just needs to know how and what to look for. Technical analysis is not related to fundamental analysis in my trading technique. IMO fundamental analysis is nothing more than an overload of useless information. Been there done that. Pivot hunting is my main objective, and yes they can be determined and executed repeatedly with a 5 tick stop loss margin. I'll be glad to discuss this further in a PM if you wish.
This is a video of one of my former classmates trading. He is now a mentor although I feel that our coach is quite a bit better. Anyway, this is what works for me. Any interest let me know and I can link you to my coaches website.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJS3psG9caQ&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hE5-c7U7Kg&feature=player_embedded
Also posted this chart for you yesterday but for some reason it never published on the forum.
Thank you for the charts. This is what I expected. Those videos, on the other hand, were insane! But they did prove the point. :)
I’ll pm you. I must see more.
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