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Recession declared over; but job losses mounting
Associated Press ^ | 10/27/09 | TOM RAUM

Posted on 10/27/2009 11:29:05 AM PDT by Baladas

WASHINGTON — It's about to become official: The recession is over — but not the pain.

The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from its deepest slump since the 1930s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.

How can both be possible?

The government releases third-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures on Thursday. Many forecasters say they will show GDP growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent, validating a widely held belief among economists that the recession ended in June or July.

But try telling that to the more than 15 million still unemployed, the small businesses and individuals who can't get loans and the people whose homes are worth less than their mortgages.

Assertions by government and private economists that the recession is over — issued amid graphic examples of continuing wide distress — are raising fresh questions about economic scorekeeping.

The national recession may be technically over, but the state of the economy remains in the eyes of the beholder.

Or, as Ronald Reagan liked to say, a recession is when your neighbor loses his or her job. Depression is when you lose yours.

A survey of economic forecasters prepared by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a research organization, predicted GDP growth to remain positive in each quarter through the end of 2010. In a survey by the National Association of Business Economics, 34 of 43 economists polled said the recession is over.

"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over," said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

(Excerpt) Read more at google.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gdp; recession; stimuluspackage; unemployment
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How can a positive quarter of the GDP square with a climbing unemployment rate? I know the answer to this one - governmental spending increases the GDP whether jobs are created or not. The stimulus bill created few, if any.
1 posted on 10/27/2009 11:29:06 AM PDT by Baladas
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To: Baladas

Cash for clunkers would have provided a large chunk of the rise, but don’t look for this rate to be maintained. You want to see where we’re REALLY at? Wait until Black Friday.


2 posted on 10/27/2009 11:30:26 AM PDT by OCCASparky (Steely-Eyed Killer of the Deep)
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To: Baladas

does anyone see any evidence of the recession being over? or even getting less severe?


3 posted on 10/27/2009 11:30:36 AM PDT by GeronL (http://tyrannysentinel.blogspot.com .... I am a rogue nobody. One of millions.)
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To: Baladas

The Obama Depression will continue until the regime is tossed under the bus.


4 posted on 10/27/2009 11:30:55 AM PDT by muawiyah (Git Out The Way)
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To: Baladas

It is no longer a recession recession, and Whoopie is now part of the administration...


5 posted on 10/27/2009 11:31:08 AM PDT by GraceG
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To: Baladas

It’s over because I say it’s over. Next subject......


6 posted on 10/27/2009 11:31:31 AM PDT by Ben Mugged (Unions are the storm troopers of socialism.)
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To: Ben Mugged

I declare myself King of the Universe.


7 posted on 10/27/2009 11:33:08 AM PDT by WOBBLY BOB (ACORN:American Corruption for Obama Right Now)
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To: Baladas

Only the most Brain-Dead Liberal Free Trader Globalist Communist Chinese George Soros Lover would claim the recession is over.

This could be the biggest BS story of the year...the recession is still quite on....


8 posted on 10/27/2009 11:33:17 AM PDT by UCFRoadWarrior (The Return of America)
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To: Baladas

The concept of a “jobless recovery” is pretty much lost on me. I guess it means the recession is over for economists.


9 posted on 10/27/2009 11:34:16 AM PDT by freespirited (Liberals are only liberal about sex & drugs. Otherwise, they want to control your life. --DHorowitz)
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To: Baladas

Dont even try figuring this out. Remember Baghdad Bob when he said “the Americans have been driven out” when you could hear the US tanks rolling in the background?


10 posted on 10/27/2009 11:34:19 AM PDT by max americana (i)
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To: Baladas
Many forecasters say they will show GDP growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent

3 Percent? No way in Hades has this economy grown 3% annualized over the past quarter.

11 posted on 10/27/2009 11:34:25 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (If Dick Cheney = Darth Vader, then Joe Biden = Dark Helmet)
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To: Baladas

I no longer believe in any numbers from the government.

I can see the situation clearly with my own eyes.
Commercial Real Estate, anyone?

The BIG question is, what’s next?
From Farm to Factory to Office to .......
What ever is next there will be fierce resistance if it is government driven.


12 posted on 10/27/2009 11:35:05 AM PDT by griswold3 (You think health care is expensive now? Just wait till it's FREE!)
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To: Baladas

They’re right - the “recession” is over.

What they did’t tell ya is that NOW the “depression” starts.


13 posted on 10/27/2009 11:35:09 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: Baladas
How can both be possible?

Creative Accounting.

14 posted on 10/27/2009 11:35:22 AM PDT by nina0113
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To: Baladas

Mission Accomplished.


15 posted on 10/27/2009 11:35:38 AM PDT by SJSAMPLE
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To: Baladas

the bad news for the US Treasury is that there is no room for monetary expansion and no incentive to invest. Any “recovery” will be still born.


16 posted on 10/27/2009 11:36:26 AM PDT by Perdogg (Sarah Palin-Jim DeMint 2012 - Liz Cheney for Sec of State - Duncan Hunter SecDef)
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To: freespirited

I guess it means the recession is over for economists.

This situation has created a demand for economists to tell the future of the economy. (I loaned them my crystal ball.)


17 posted on 10/27/2009 11:36:30 AM PDT by griswold3 (You think health care is expensive now? Just wait till it's FREE!)
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To: Baladas

The AP has gone way past absurdity and parody and is now headed into the invisible area of the spectrum.
The Media/Left hive are now a 24/7 clown show.


18 posted on 10/27/2009 11:36:58 AM PDT by Carl LaFong (Experts say experts should be ignored.)
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To: Baladas

So, if governmental spending of printed and borrowed dollars increases GDP and brings the recession to end, why don’t they just print up another eleventy-bajillion dollars and declare instant prosperity?


19 posted on 10/27/2009 11:37:51 AM PDT by Zeddicus
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To: Baladas

They are playing with the inflation numbers to make it look like growth, but it’s not.


20 posted on 10/27/2009 11:39:37 AM PDT by henkster (0bamanomics: The "Final Solution" to America's "Prosperity Question.")
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To: SJSAMPLE
"Mission Accomplished."

Bingo -- this is Obama's version. Predictably enough, the lapdog media is cheering him on when in GWB's day all they had was criticism. Typical leftist hypocrisy.

Doom on 'em.

Click the Gadsden flag for pro-gun resources!

21 posted on 10/27/2009 11:41:20 AM PDT by Joe Brower (Sheep have three speeds: "graze", "stampede" and "cower".)
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To: Baladas; All
Who are you going to believe? The unemployed people in front of your eyes, or the government?
22 posted on 10/27/2009 11:41:47 AM PDT by Red in Blue PA (Obama, Hitler, Stalin: Who are 3 people nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.)
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To: GeronL

“does anyone see any evidence of the recession being over? or even getting less severe?”

No. Once inflation hits...I don’t want to think about it.


23 posted on 10/27/2009 11:42:31 AM PDT by imskylark
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To: Baladas
It's all in who does the counting and how, if the raw numbers look bad convert them to a percentage. Game has been going on as long as I can remember. The old foreign aid is less than one percent of the budget, BS, pure BS. The government has decide to make up the numbers, if you decide X is the low number then anything above x is an increase.

Do you like you book, rare, medium, are well done.

24 posted on 10/27/2009 11:44:22 AM PDT by org.whodat (Vote: Chuck De Vore in 2012.)
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To: Baladas

what’s that smell??.....ah, yes, it must be the soiled underwear of AP Enablers suddenly coming to the realization of what they’ve done...


25 posted on 10/27/2009 11:44:48 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Baladas

Assuming the statistics show “the recession is over,” it’s not surprising that employment will not quickly improve. When companies cut back on employment, they find that when orders increase not all those laid off need be rehired.

If work hours have been reduced, they can be increased without hiring a single new employee, or the existing work force can be put onto overtime until management sees that the recovery is for real and that the work force needs to be increased.

Further, because the population increases every year, in order to maintain a constant unemployment rate requires something like 200,000 new jobs a month if I recall the statistics correctly.

And this is without counting the jobs that are never going to return because they are now in China or India or ...

Lastly, no management is going to invest in new plants or workers until the changes in taxes, regulation, energy costs, etc. are better settled. Zero and his administration are destroying jobs faster than can be created just by the uncertainty.

Jack


26 posted on 10/27/2009 11:47:18 AM PDT by JackOfVA
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To: Baladas

Q: “How can both be possible?”
—AP

A: “It’s easy, when you’re me!”
—Obama


27 posted on 10/27/2009 11:47:33 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Baladas

Sorry, ain’t buyin’ it.


28 posted on 10/27/2009 11:48:32 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: Baladas

What if they threw a recovery and nobody came?


29 posted on 10/27/2009 11:55:25 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Hear us, O Bama: Mmm, mmm, mmm.)
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To: Joe Brower

http://www.miseryindex.us/URbymonth.asp

The misery index


30 posted on 10/27/2009 11:55:25 AM PDT by griswold3 (You think health care is expensive now? Just wait till it's FREE!)
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To: WOBBLY BOB
I declare myself King of the Universe.

You can't do that. I'm the Emperor of this dimension. Go find your own dimension. There is one available three over and two up.

31 posted on 10/27/2009 11:57:39 AM PDT by Ben Mugged (Unions are the storm troopers of socialism.)
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To: muawiyah

This is more psychological bs, but why?

They want us to spend, spend, spend for Christmas....


32 posted on 10/27/2009 11:59:16 AM PDT by Freddd (CNN is not credible.)
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To: GeronL

NO HERE IN MY PARTS...


33 posted on 10/27/2009 12:00:33 PM PDT by tatsinfla
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To: Baladas

The operation was a success but the patient died.


34 posted on 10/27/2009 12:01:28 PM PDT by ZULU (God guts and guns made America great. Non nobis, non nobis Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam.)
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To: Night Hides Not

I WORK IN THE PACKAGING INDUSTRY(sorry) and our business is down by at least 25% if not more...we have laid off and cut salaries twice this year...other companies i deal with in this industry are not seeing an upswing either...i people are out of work they don’t buy products, if they don’t buy products then packaging is not needed as producers have no restock orders.,....we are definatly in a recession and i call b.s. on any gubmint official that says otherwise....


35 posted on 10/27/2009 12:03:46 PM PDT by tatsinfla
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To: freespirited

Like a fire that is put out..only the building is still burning kind of thing.


36 posted on 10/27/2009 12:06:37 PM PDT by Soothesayer9
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To: Baladas

For years, during the last administration, while we had quarter after quarter of GNP and job growth, the RATS and their lapdog media were trumpeting the worst economy in 50 years, and now, with jobs going down the toilet, “The Recession is Over! Hurrah!”


37 posted on 10/27/2009 12:06:50 PM PDT by Redleg Duke ("Don't fire unless fired upon, but it they mean to have a war, let it begin here." J Parker, 1775)
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To: Baladas

The GDP is the total dollar figure of goods and services which is then corrected for inflation to get the real change in GDP. However, I don’t think anyone has a good handle on what the inflation rate actually is with all the money being pumped into the system. Understate the inflation rate and Presto! the decrease in value of the dollar looks like growth.


38 posted on 10/27/2009 12:20:27 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (Soon everyone will win a Nobel Peace Prize for not being George Bush...well, except for George Bush.)
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To: Baladas
Now we can all feel better, thanks BHO.
Oh yeah, except for those who are unemployed or soon will be.
39 posted on 10/27/2009 12:22:31 PM PDT by drypowder
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To: Baladas

The recession might be over, but not the way the way the ruling cabal would have us pretend. We might want to get used to the term “depression.” We might want to develop new terms to describe things like a deep cycle depression with hyper inflation. While the economy is dying, we can entertain ourselves with global warming policies that ignore the onset of a mini ice age, or reforming healthcare until we have no healthcare at all. But it’s all cool, because the intentions are really good — just wash your hands often, and sneeze down your shirt.


40 posted on 10/27/2009 12:32:24 PM PDT by pallis
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To: Baladas

“And while she credited much of the turnabout to government stimulus measures and moves by the Fed, she said “by mid-2010, fiscal stimulus will be contributing little to further growth.””

I am so sick of this!!

Listen you retarded politicians, you can influence the masses and convince them that it’s bad when it’s good. You can’t, however, convince them it’s good when it’s bad. It just doesn’t work that way.


41 posted on 10/27/2009 12:33:27 PM PDT by autumnraine (You can't fix stupid, but you can vote it out!)
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To: Baladas

"Nothing is over, until we say it is!"

42 posted on 10/27/2009 12:38:02 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Baladas
How can both be possible?

With a Democrat or Communist in the White House, and a compliant press instead of a 'free press', anything becomes 'possible'...

43 posted on 10/27/2009 12:41:59 PM PDT by Zeppo (Save the cheerleader, save the world...)
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To: GeronL
does anyone see any evidence of the recession being over? or even getting less severe?

Not here at our household!

We have one of our sons and his family now living with us. He lost his job 4 months ago so had to move. He has been unable to find another job although he does some part time work delivering a few hours a week. He was delivering today to one of the local factories and they told him they are down to a skeleton staff working 3 day weeks and it is getting worse.

One of our nearby daughters is due this week, but her husband can now only find occasional work. Somehow, they have managed to hold onto their (rented) house but that is getting dicey. They are falling financially further behind every day and are almost out of resources.

Frankly, we don't need another family moving in with us. That would mean 6 adults and 3 small children (plus another baby due in March) in our 3 bedroom house.

This reminds me of my Mom's stories of living in the great Depression. Her family lived together with several relative families under one roof just to hold things together with part time work. People were sleeping on every available bed, sofa and porch swing and eating in shifts just to keep going.

On a personal level, we are quickly getting there.

So, no. This is not over. It is getting worse, at least for us.

44 posted on 10/27/2009 12:42:10 PM PDT by Gritty (Alarm bells have become a siren. Spending, borrowing and debt are out of control-Sen. McConnell)
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To: OCCASparky

One quarter of growth doesn’t mean a lot out of one year. Don’t these same economists expect things to turn down for the current quarter? That would make three down and one up. Hardly the definition of the return to prosperity.

Just think, if things are as bad as they seem now and continue into the new year, then we can start on a new recession.


45 posted on 10/27/2009 12:44:52 PM PDT by AceMineral (Ultra-right straggler)
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To: Baladas

we need a pic of Baghdad bob right about now...


46 posted on 10/27/2009 12:46:54 PM PDT by sten
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To: Baladas

Obama thinks that the recession is over when he says it’s over.


47 posted on 10/27/2009 12:47:22 PM PDT by Rocky (OBAMA: Succeeding where bin Laden failed.)
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To: Baladas

This is only year 2 of the great depression.


48 posted on 10/27/2009 1:00:12 PM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: sten

The resession is over and the ecomony is growing at 3% or more.

49 posted on 10/27/2009 1:11:22 PM PDT by jpsb
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To: WOBBLY BOB

ALL HAIL KING WOBBLY BOB!

Will you name me your Chief of Staff, Court Jester, and Head Bottle washer?


50 posted on 10/27/2009 1:23:29 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (The Second Amendment. Don't MAKE me use it.)
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