Swine Flu Panic in Perspective

American Thinker ^ | October 29, 2009 | Frank S. Rosenbloom, M.D.

[neverdem]

I usually see about twenty patients in my office, and at least a few patients in the hospital, daily. Over the past several months, my patient load has increased by one third. Almost all of the increase is due to fears about H1N1 influenza.

Patients are coming to the office fearful of "Swine Flu," with symptoms ranging from a slight sniffle to overt pneumonia. After seeing hundreds of cases of "flu" over the past several months and testing all of those who fit the clinical picture of influenza, I have confirmed only three genuine cases of H1N1. Two of these cases were in physicians and one was in a nurse.

All of the other cases turned out to be allergies, typical viral or bacterial infections, or the seasonal flu. Additionally, all three had mild illness and recovered with symptomatic treatment. The graph below shows the percentage of visits for influenza-like illness reported by the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network for the week ending October 17, 2009. Note the much higher percentage of visits for flu-like illnesses this year. (Fig 1)

This graph reflects the anxiety that has been caused, not an increased rate of disease, but the title of the original article is still appropriate. It is necessary to keep this "pandemic" in perspective. We have an administration that will try to divert attention away from other issues and a public health system that is more than willing to help them.

In May of this year I wrote an article entitled "Swine Flu in Perspective." In it I noted the following:

Finally, 36,000 people die from Influenza every year in this country. That's 100 people a day on average!  Sadly, a baby from Mexico died in Texas from the Swine Flu. There will likely be more deaths here, but not in the numbers some would have you believe. However, about 100 people in the US die from the typical flu every day. Swine flu is a flu! Of course, every life is precious. But more Americans die from car accidents than the flu. Do we need to be vigilant? Of course. Should we foment panic? Absolutely not.

I cautioned that more people would likely die but held strongly to the belief that the panic was more dangerous than the disease. Now, five months later, after reviewing the evidence, I have not changed my mind.

So let's review the data. The CDC (Centers for Disease Control) report on the leading causes of death for 2006, the last year for which complete statistics are available, can be found here. Note that there were 56,326 deaths caused by "influenza and pneumonia." Why are these combined? Simply because while we have a pretty good idea of the number of people who died of pneumonia, we have to estimate the number of deaths for which influenza was a contributing factor. The way in which the CDC does this can be found here. A relatively small number of people are tested for seasonal influenza relative to the number who present with respiratory infections. Furthermore, only about 38% of hospitalized patients with flu-like syndrome are tested for seasonal influenza and, surprisingly, only 5% who die from such illnesses are tested.

Out of a total of 273 cities with populations of over 100,000, and hundreds more with populations over 10,000, the CDC monitors seasonal influenza mortality statistics from just 122 cities. Don't get me wrong; the CDC does a good job, but by its very nature and magnitude it is an incomplete job. Though seasonal influenza may cause a higher proportion of deaths than reported, it is estimated that it causes around 36,000 deaths annually.

What is happening with H1N1? For starters, as mentioned above, people are seeking medical intervention much more quickly and often for symptoms they would have ignored or treated at home with chicken soup and Tylenol in years past. Additionally, proportionately larger numbers of people were initially getting tested, even when they had only the remotest possibility of having the disease. The fact that more people were tested meant that more would be diagnosed.

Additionally, and even more disturbing, many cases are assumed to be H1N1 without testing. Yes, the CDC advised the states to stop testing for and tracking cases of H1N1. Their rationale? There is no need to waste resources when the government has already confirmed there is an epidemic. In other words, just trust us. The debate is over. I had no idea Al Gore and the IPCC were working for the CDC. As I originally contended, the number of cases of H1N1 has been overestimated, and even CBS News reported this.

I have had twenty-two patients call me or come in to the office claiming to have had contact with patients who were diagnosed with the "Swine Flu." In each and every case I took the time to investigate the contact case to determine whether the patient had actually been tested. In every case so far, the contact case either was not tested or tested negative but was given the diagnosis just the same.  

On a personal note, my daughter developed a viral illness but continued running cross country while sick. She fainted due to dehydration and was admitted to the hospital with a diagnosis of H1N1. She was discharged after three days and is doing well. Her roommates were temporarily moved out of her dorm room to prevent exposure. I checked on the test several days later, and despite the diagnosis, it was negative. 

Yet even news organizations overseas are reporting on "Swine Flu" mania in the U.S. and our valiant president's decisive actions to protect us. Of course, the BBC has not discussed his delay on a decision for troop escalation in Afghanistan. Over 1,000 deaths from "Swine Flu" thus far in 2009 have been reported in the U.S., and Mr. Obama has declared a "Swine Flu emergency." Of course, statistics reveal that around 30,000 people have died from the seasonal flu this year and he has declared no "seasonal flu emergency." With over 1,384 Coalition deaths in less than one month, I for one would like to see him declare an "Afghanistan Emergency" and prescribe more troops to protect the brave souls in mortal danger there.

Generally, the reaction to this pandemic borders on the Orwellian. Many employers are forcing employees to be vaccinated under threat of loss of their jobs. Hospitals are doing the same, and many are requiring caregivers to wear masks at all times, even if there have been no reported cases. Some schools are considering requiring immunization under threat of suspension.

Evidence is mounting that, as I opined previously, "Swine Flu" is less of a threat medically and epidemiologically than was feared, but is a great mechanism for the promotion of political pork. Our founding fathers taught that it is healthy to regard government intentions with skepticism. We have failed to heed their wise advice, and we are now learning that the military tactic of deception is alive and well in the Obama Administration. While we are being threatened by H1N1, they are using the distraction to infect us with a much more deadly disease that will affect not only us, but our children and grandchildren: the disease of subjugation.

Frank S. Rosenbloom, M.D. is president of Oregon Right to Life. His website is frankrosenbloom.com. His book "Lethal Prescription" will be available on November 25th, 2009.

[allmost]

I know of a boy that was vaccinated and still got it.

...

[ModelBreaker]

These numbers are completely off from the numbers compiled by my physician. They may be different because I live in CO and the Swine (that’s what the kids here have dubbed it) hit earlier here than it did elsewhere. But three weeks ago when everyone we know had at least one kid down with the flu, my Dr said he was swabbing folks with fevers and other flu symptons and most of them were swabbing H1N1 positive. His case load was way up; but it was because of the Swine.

OTOH, most folks are over it in 2-3 days, he says. My whole family got it in the space of a week. One bad day and then a couple of mildly funky days and it was over. The bad day was bad, though.

That’s a kind of bizarre difference between the two accounts. It may just be where they are located.

[cherry]

the test for swine flu is $300......I question just how many tests are being done.....

afterall, there is no different treatment for it than a regular plain old flu....none what so ever.....

in my area, they are not doing widespread testing....only those small, tiny minority that might have lingering illness and need to go into the hospital for hydration and resp. therapy....

[familyop]

Artificial crisis creation is also part of the plan, and most people don't see the big picture.

Fall of the Republic: The Presidency of Barack Obama (video)

;-)

[DISCO]

“Never let a crisis go to waste.” The propagandists in the state controlled media are even overseas. If there is an epidemic, why a shortage of vaccine? Wouldn’t take it anyway.

[Corin Stormhands]

I’m in.

[Cindy]

I like this author.
Full of common sense and patience.

Thanks for this, neverdem.

[Cindy]

Background link:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2237482/posts

[pandoraou812]

interesting.

[kara2008]

I totally agree with this comment at American Thinker.

It is totally in line with global warming and other MAN-MADE HYSTERIAS being utilized to create an order in the political culture that wants to exclude choice and personal responsibility and give the almighty government more clout.

Unless there is a revolt (which I believe is building) this country is headed for a shift so great that our republic will be unrecognizable.

I never thought I would see the day when so many would be so easily swayed and "Chicken Little" would be the only response that was acceptable.

[SaraJohnson]

If this doctor is really testing for the swine flu in his officer after July, he’s unique because state labs stopped testing for swine flu in July. What is happening now is that doctors test for regular flu and if you come up positive they assume you have the swine flu. Only those hospitalized and the dead are tested in this country for swine flu.

The other thing is that he’s using that bogus number of 36,000 dying from regular flu every year. That was a number made up by CDC on the fly in April and it was way off. Usually one to two thousand people die from regular flu each year.

I agree we don’t want to panic people. But giving out real data and the truth is the best way to not panic people. Knowledge is safety with our health.

[DannyTN]

Dr. Rosenbloom is in Oregon. They are just now beginning to ramp. It struck the Southeast first and the ramped up to the west before moving north.

Here is Oregon's CDC graph

[DoughtyOne]

Yesterday morning I woke up with the television on, and a story being reported about increased stress on the internet because so many people were going to have to be working from home due to being sick with the H1N1 virus. This cracked me up.

So nobody worked from home last year because of influenza related illness?

How many people can actually work from home?

Most folks simply put their work on a memory stick and take it home with them, if they need to work. Then they take it back to work.

If people can connect to their work computer, chances are they do work on the internet already. What’s the diff if they do it from work or from home?

What this does indicate is that someone is trying to hype the idea that the internet is stressed. And if it is stressed, why there needs to be some remedy.

That remedy would be keeping everyone off the internet to relieve the stress. Certain sites that were not work related would have to stand down. Political sites would not be necessary to the completion of commerce.

One by one the government could contact ISPs and have them categorize their clientele, so that all unnecessary sites could be flicked off for periods of time.

These seemingly innocuous stories are troublesome.

This H1N1 isn’t being hyped in a vacuum. Somebody sees some value in it.

[Global2010]

I got here before the neverdem ping.

You IMO Always post the most logical medical/sce articles.

And so Thanks.

Now about this whole swine flu deal I have givin it alot of thought and I sum it up to be Obama Drama. : )

[DoughtyOne]

Sarah, the CDC made those guestimates regarding mortality because not all hospitals report inflenza, and not everyone with influenza goes to a hospital in the first place.

Nursing homes don’t file reports with the CDC.

The CDC is trying to make it’s best guess. It is not trying to participate in some grand conspiracy.

People who think there are only 2000 influenza deaths each year scare the hell out of me. It’s like the group of people out there who think Obama is great because he has to be, he’s black.

Both are equally rational... or should I say irrational.

I spent 35 years working in the medical filed, 26 of those years in a major hospital and another nine years in some of the largest closed door pharmacies in the nation.

Massive numbers of people die each year from influenza. I don’t care if you want to believe it or not, but quit trying to foist off your ignorance on others.

[TigersEye]

Good article. If you have read it correctly you will undoubtedly have realized that the diagnosis is that our President is a complete idiot and that the press has all come down with a case of 0bamanitis.

[Global2010]

I am finding I like the source American Thinker.

I am not much for putting to much trust in media but this source has been batting 100 percent in line with my perspective on issues.

Even thought of getting a subscription if it comes in un green friendly paper form.

[TigersEye]

Right on the money. This is just one more facet of the Globalist/Progressive scam.

[Global2010]

Almost as bad as the Freepers posting threads on the Obama to devulge the Alians are with us crap.

Embarrasing stuff.

[Cindy]

It is, in my opinion, just what the title of the site states, “American Thinker.”

I don’t agree with every article, but I do find myself expanding my knowledge on certain incidents, groups and individuals.

[Global2010]

Doughty it is being reported here on FR about the low death rate due to flu related deaths.

So not to speak for Miss Sarah but it is being heavily posted here.

And no we should not assume truth due to FR threads say it is so.

About what you posted about Nursing homes not reporting cases...I pondered that and wonder if it is that they dont want any red flags IOW flying under the radar so govt. do gooders dont come in and investigate their facilities. Just a thought.

[pandoraou812]

I agree with every word you posted. Maybe it ought to be called O flu, Kenyan flu etc . I am sure somebody can find a good name for it.

[Global2010]

Never a rat : ) How come you have not pinged yet the list.

[TigersEye]

It is just another strain of the flu.

[DoughtyOne]

I would suggest you go out and google influenza deaths.

There are a number of studies out there. See if you can find one that looks credible that says there are only 2000 influenza deaths per year.

I would submit to you that people die from respiratory infections, circulation problems, and even heart attacks, because of the stresses of coming down with influenza and being bed ridden for a period of time.

Some folks think the government and the big pharmaceutical companies are running a scam on the U.S. public. They look for ways to convince folks this is true. They will grasp at straws to do it, and trash folks who don’t buy into this with them.

Nursing homes are not required to report to the CDC. Not all hospitals are either. Some hospitals do, and many don’t. Perhaps the CDC should require them all to. I think there’s an argument to be made there. The fact that the CDC hasn’t is probably more related to the idea that it wouldn’t really improve matters all that much if they did.

They are servicing people with influenza now. They would in the same manner if they reported. Nothing would change except there would be a larger field of data reporting pretty much what the CDC already knows.

I don’t see nursing homes not reporting due to any avoidance considerations. Health care is provided to these patients. They do get medications, IVs, and nutrition supplements if necessary. That’s about what they’d get in the hospital.

[Global2010]

U come off as being a bit bias with all the time you spent in medical institutions.

No need to reply.

[DoughtyOne]

If you worked in a field for 35 years, do you think you might have a bias toward what you knew to be true?

Take care...

[Global2010]

For me it has been 30 years and the health field has turned into a bureaucratic govt. typed crap hole. JMO

[skooldayz]

Our local hospital has told employees the flu vaccine will be manadory next year, no exceptions.
In other words, if you work for us, we own your body.

[MaggieCarta]

IMHO, the article's money quote:

We have an administration that will try to divert attention away from other issues and a public health system that is more than willing to help them.

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

American Thinker is one of my favorites. Consistent high quality of its product.
Wish they’d change their logo, though. Their Uncle Sam makes me want to build an outhouse around him.

[PennsylvaniaMom]

LOL...me too. I bet they can find George, thinking deeply, standing.

[the invisib1e hand]

would a muslim get a swine flu vaccine?

[the invisib1e hand]

would a muslim get a swine flu vaccine?

[houeto]

Wish they’d change their logo, though. Their Uncle Sam makes me want to build an outhouse around him.

My first reaction was...Dobie Gillis!

[norraad]

Alians are with us crap, and would mudlums get a pig shot= best stuff on this thread!

Anyone giving anything but laughing stock credit to this whole scam is a , oh, I don't know, you fill in the blank, _________________!!!!!!

[SaraJohnson]

I am going by the information DVD mom posted from CDC’s own website regarding regular swine flu tests. You may know more than the CDC’s own website.

What about the other b.s. this guy is foisting on the public - that of him testing all his patinets for swine flu when that is not true.

You don’t have to be so hostile.

[norraad]

..aaacktually (Jerry Lewis as Professor what's his name), not being hostile to bull$hit is what allows and foments it's purveyors to endeavor to scam us!

P.T. Barnum axiom at work.

[SaraJohnson]

Actually, nursing homes give their residents the flu shot each year and it is more systematic than is the general population of eldery. There is little reason based in fact to point at nursing homes underreporting flu deaths as it is the most vaccinated population of eldery.

[SaraJohnson]

“Some folks think the government and the big pharmaceutical companies are running a scam on the U.S. public. They look for ways to convince folks this is true. They will grasp at straws to do it, and trash folks who don’t buy into this with them.”

---

There is no reason to “trash” the CDC but there is no reason to treat the CDC as the picture of medical perfection either. It is a government agency - bulky, political and operating where the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing - like all big government institutions.

I agree with you that pharmaceutical companies are demonized beyond reality, but they too, are not perfect in their pursuit of profit and political insider status. Government and pharmaceutical companies have plenty of room for skecptism and examination.

After being involved in the medical research business for thirty years, I can promise you, there are no holy or perfect players in the field of medicine. Naturally all are self interested. Sometimes those interests are good for public health and sometimes they should be rejected.

Obama is trying to use this flu epidemic for more power and that is scary as heck. How can he call a “National emergency” when the flu data is not there to support such an extreme reaction? I think he is trying to spin CDC's failure to produce enough vaccine to cover those who want the vaccine in the country. That is going to backfire on him.

[SaraJohnson]

“For me it has been 30 years and the health field has turned into a bureaucratic govt. typed crap hole. JMO”

---

After thirty years in the field of medical research administration, I’ll drink to that! What a mess!

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

Hi DO,

They’re basically playing buzzword bingo.

This is the increasingly popular game where you take the crisis du jour and then you extrapolate it into as many areas as you can think of and then report breathlessly on the results.

Global warming is likely to
- Make swimming pools harder to keep clean.
- Make road repairs more frequent because the asphalt will melt

Todays buzzword bingo is more internet traffic due to swine flu. I got something to that effect in my email inbox within the last hour.

One word. Agitprop.

[DoughtyOne]

I wouldn’t argue with that.

[SaraJohnson]

There are two types of kooks that have emerged in this pandemic: The kooks who are are terribly fearful of anyone who observes the virus is dangerous and the kooks who are fearful of anyone who names the virus harmless. Both types become hysterical and attack when they think they hear traces of the other one. Discussions of true or false medical data and information does not alter the hysteria that comes from the either group of kooks.

[neverdem]

How come you have not pinged yet the list.

I didn't get the chance yet, and I also wanted to ping my micro and diabetes lists to this link.

The spice of life

[Global2010]

Thanks.
I forget that my hours are not typical.

[DoughtyOne]

Sarah, I’m not sure what the CDC’s game is. They claim 30 thousand then 36 thousand influenza deaths per year, then make other misleading claims that few die. The idea that we only have 2000 deaths per year is pretty easily trashed, because we have thousands of hospitals in the U.S. and not even one would be dying in each of them if that were true.

That doesn’t even take into consideration the elderly who die in nursing homes or even at home.

Our hospital count alone would go up by 100 patients per day for months at a time due to influenza. People died. Nowadays fewer people are admitted to the hospitals during the influenza season, but they get home health care. People still die.

Imagine a hospital bed count elevated by 100 patients per day, that extended out for three to four months. Then imagine that less than one person on average died from influenza out of that group per year.

With the rollover in patients, this 100 patients per day would work out to thousands of patients, all ill enough to be hospitalized with acute problems, but according to some people none of them were dying. That’s just not true.

The reason I am hostile, is that we have a government propaganda machine operating out of the White House. That propaganda machine isn’t being run without purpose. They want to manipulate public opinion to their own ends.

If we convince people that 2000 died from the influenza, what happens when we have 42,000 die this year? Obama comes along and says that with government health care, that wouldn’t have happened. “Why if we had everyone covered with health care, this wouldn’t have been possible.”

If this turns into an also ran influenza season with a bit different demographic, then his ability to game the system is reduced. I don’t want to see our people help push folks over that edge.

I’ve pretty much said all this before. I know that it was dismissed last time. Hey, that’s okay. Folks can do what they want. I just don’t think it’s smart to play into this.

We now have tents set up outside hospitals. We have people flocking to doctors offices in large numbers. We have our resources stretched.

The people who normally get the sniffles and go about their lives, are now getting the sniffles and rushing to a doctor’s office, only to find out they’re going to be just fine in a few days.

Yesterday I read an article about how this flu season is going to impact the internet. Why it’s resources would be pushed to the limit because we were going to have many people working from home.

Think about that. Work is necessary. Political awareness forums are not. Do you begin to see where they could go with this?

Of course nobody ever had the flu and worked from home in previous years right? These folks don’t miss a trick, and I think we play a very dangerous role, if we help to support the idea this is going to be a pandemic year when all bets are off.

That’s just my take on it. If you folks want to think I’m all wet, okay, think I’m all wet. I can see where this could lead and I don’t want to be a party to it. And I will try to explain to others why they shouldn’t be either.

I was grumpy last night, so I’m sorry I was rude.

Take care.

[DoughtyOne]

Exactly right... I couldn’t agree with you more here.

I realize the CDC isn’t perfect. I don’t believe they are above game playing either. Back in April they and the NIH were both gaming the H1N1 influenza for all it was worth.

Then by the end of September their own figures revealed that 0.0267% of those who contracted this influenza were dying. And that was just the people they could document. There were others that didn’t even go to a doctor or hospital.

While we were having this conversation up here, down in New Zealand and Australia, they were seeing the influenza play out without a massive mortality rate.

I read an article recently that stated the influenza in one of those nations turned out to be 70% H1N1 this (their) winter, and the rest was made up of the conventional influenza. I believe that’s what we’ll see here too. And like down there, I don’t believe we have nearly the need for fear that some have been saying we do.

I do believe the pharmaceutical companies are demonized, but I do believe they are problematic at times. I just think we need to keep things in perspective, and I don’t want to see people think they are all good or all bad.

[SaraJohnson]

I am not immune to bouts of grumpy myself, DaughtyOne.

And I understand your fear about Obama using this pandemic to shut down the internet or any other police state action he wishes to take against the American public and our freedoms.

When the public’s fear of government abusing power precludes our ability to collect and analyize real medical data on the flu - good news or bad news - we know the Federal government has become the major problem we face.

In addition, when you have the government controlled by folks who talk lightly about killing old people to save health care dollars or imposing restrictions on the number of children families may have, it becomes even more frantic for the public and feeds the wild conspiracy kooks.

All I want is the vital data that is missing because the CDC stopped collecting it. How can Obama claim there is a National emergency when he does not even know how contageous the virus is or the incidence numbers in order to determine the accurate death rate? How can the doctor you posted claim it is harmless without valid scienitific population data for an accurate death rate beyond his little experience in the world? People can make up whatever they want when valid public health medical data is not available to check on their accuracy.

And so it goes with the CDC making up the number of 36,000 when their published data on their web site shows only an rough average of 2,000 deaths/yr. The answer is that they don’t know - they did no valid studies on the death rate for regular flu because they did not collect valid data as you suspect. So an honest response from the CDC would have been: “we don’t know the death rate from regular flu because we did not collect that data. However, we would guess - based on this caculation - that probably 36,000 Americans die each year from regular flu.” Medical people would then evaluate the reasonableness of CDC’s caculation and be able to decide how valid the guess might be. The public would be aware the CDC failed to collect valid data on the regular flu’s death rate.

What struck me was CDC pulling that number out of their bottoms when the public was concerned about the outbreak in Mexico. It appeared to be spin and there is no room for manipulating political spin in Western medicine as far as I am concerned. It can kill people and it can kill freedom.

They need to be nailed on spin and their public health incompetence. Given Obama is a Marxist, his spin will now lean towards causing panic in the public and justifying police state emergency now after spinning the public that the virus is harmless when that served him policially in May. Not good for the quality of medicine in the US when a pandemic becomes a political game.

If we recognize the CDC has failed to collect the necessary public health data on the swine flu are are manipulating the public with no scientific knowledge to back their claims and policy, they lose their power over people. Further, if the Marxists think they are going to score brownie points for panicking the public based on no valid data and then refuse to give them the vaccine because they created shortages, they are seriously mistaken!

ONe other thing we need to pay attention to. The CDC just decided to count regular flu deaths and swine flu deaths in one count. They want to manipulate a higher number of flu deaths...just as Obama starts making noise about taking over the Internet. The public won’t know they did this. They will think newly reported “flu deaths” out of the CDC means swine flu deaths and that the death rate has increased.