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The Recession is Over; the Depression Continues
Vanity, based on data from BEA and USA Today | 10-29-09 | Dangus

Posted on 10/29/2009 8:38:26 AM PDT by dangus

Obama now fully owns the economy. No matter how bad his economic policies hurt the U.S. economy in the Spring, it was very difficult to quantify how much of the recession was his fault, and how much could be blamed on the Bush-Kennedy-Pelosi administration; the faster the economy sank, the lower the bar would be for him to claim credit for its recovery. Now that the recession is "over," however, he must take full blame for another recession.

The depression is not over, however. This Spring, I warned Freepers not to be fooled by a 3rd-quarter "recovery." The economy hasn't truly grown; it's been lifted. The GDP reports include government spending, even deficit spending. The mere action of transfering funds from the government to recipients counts as economic "production." Out of roughly three and one half trillion dollars of such "production" in the past quarter of it, more than three hundred billion dollars (more than five percent!) of it was due to an increase in federal, deficit spending... Yet the economy only grew three and a half percent. In other words, economic production has continued to fall.

Subtracting just the increased production of motor vehicles from the GDP lowers the figure from 3.5% to 1.9%. Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy rose only 0.5%. What happens when you exclude motor vehicles along with food and energy gross domestic purchases isn't part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' report, but it's hard to see how it could be positive.

Is it reasonable to subtract car sales from economic growth? Given that the boost in car sales is due to the government's destruction of existing cars, yes!

Leading indicators in the USA Today Economic Outlook Index already indicate a massive slowdown of growth in the first quarter of 2010:

Some leading indicators are up, but several of these don't make the Obama administration look good.

These data result in the index dropping from 3% at the end of the year to 2.3% in March, 2010. (Curiously, the most recent updates have been removed from the USA Today web page; these are the data that were up last night.) 2.3% is still healthy, though, isn't it? Unfortunately, the USA Today index is a 6-month trailing, rolling average, meaning that the 2.3% includes some of the same growth that is already scored in the 3rd Quarter 2009 GDP, and all of the 4th quarter GDP growth. That's very close to flat for the 4th-quarter GDP. And keep in mind, the GDP isn't regressed for population growth, so anything less than 1.5% growth is a decline in wealth per capita.

It gets still worse. Keep in mind that the 1st Qtr 2010 is still receiving nearly the full support of the economic "stimulus." Late in 2010, the federal government will reduce the amount by which it is propping up the economy, or be forced to release another round of confidence-crushing, deficit-launching stimulus.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: chat; dangus; vanity

1 posted on 10/29/2009 8:38:26 AM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

I KNEW there was a reason for me to drink so much so early.


2 posted on 10/29/2009 8:40:02 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: dangus

NO one is fooled by the propaganda the Feds under the Fascist regime of Zero puts out.
Just ask all the unemployed if the “recession” is over.


3 posted on 10/29/2009 8:40:45 AM PDT by Marty62 (former Marty60)
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To: dangus
As soon as the first time home buyer program ends, the housing market will crater taking the economy with it.
4 posted on 10/29/2009 8:41:27 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied, the economy died)
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To: Marty62
"Just ask all the unemployed if the “recession” is over."

Ask all the unemplyed if there are any helpful programs available to them ... the programs our taxes paid for so many years.

5 posted on 10/29/2009 8:44:00 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: knarf

The majority of the unemployed WANT a job. Who wants to live on a taxpayer handout. Especially if you have a fam to support.


6 posted on 10/29/2009 8:46:34 AM PDT by Marty62 (former Marty60)
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To: knarf

>I KNEW there was a reason for me to drink so much so early.

You too, huh?


7 posted on 10/29/2009 8:47:05 AM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: dangus
Oh utter horsefeathers, you can't selectively remove pieces of the national product accounts and pretend you are measuring the economy. They are double entry books about where income comes from and where it goes to.

The economy grew in the third quarter because the savings rate stopped rising and instead reversed, and because the fall in private inventories slowed. Unsustainable trends reverse is the only message, and economies naturally right themselves.

Unemployment remains high and it is going to remain high for some time, and GDP remains below its peak level and will remain so for some time. The english word used to describe the period of time in which those things remain true but GDP growth is positive, is "recovery".

I am so sick of people trying to substitute their doom mongering political spin for objective economic or financial analysis. It is bad enough when the infantile left does it, they lie for a living and want to live in fantasies; when the right, which is supposed to know economics and be willing to face reality squarely, does it, it is just pathetic.

8 posted on 10/29/2009 8:48:44 AM PDT by JasonC
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To: Marty62
Y'can't prove age discrimination ... but ......


And it DOES feel like the death panel starting to turbine up.


The youngsters in "positions" are practicin' gettin' it down right.

9 posted on 10/29/2009 8:50:29 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: OneWingedShark

Yeah ... I got a lil’ Cap’n in me ....


10 posted on 10/29/2009 8:51:24 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: knarf

Did you listen to that porno new conf. I thought it was intersting that ole Hoyer said: “this bill has been on available to the public since JUNE.
IS HE SAYING THEY NEVER CHANGED THE ORIGINAL...JUST ADDED 800+ MORE PAGES OF C***.

Americans better get real. This is NOT a joke.


11 posted on 10/29/2009 8:54:26 AM PDT by Marty62 (former Marty60)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

It is being extended to April. They are also going to expand it to include some present home owner’s to buy new homes from what I understand.


12 posted on 10/29/2009 8:54:34 AM PDT by charles1252
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To: dangus

-0 Economic growth to 3.+.
ZERO JUST CALLED THIS THE LARGEST ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2 YEARS.
HE IS ON HIS LAST 2 YEARS SCAM.
SORRY ZERO...THIS MONKEY IS ON YOUR BACK NOW.


13 posted on 10/29/2009 8:57:54 AM PDT by Marty62 (former Marty60)
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To: JasonC

[I am so sick of people trying to substitute their doom mongering political spin for objective economic or financial analysis.]

Sane people do not listen to you Jason. You’ve been predicting a rebound for many months and all to no avail.


14 posted on 10/29/2009 9:01:19 AM PDT by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: dangus
All these phony statistics that this administration are crowing about amount to nothing. I got news for ya Barry, the recession ain't over until people are getting jobs; REAL JOBS, not some ACORN census counter job, but a REAL LASTING JOB that actually adds value to the economy. The fed can shuffle a dwindling pot of money around to prop up this piece of the economy or that piece but until business feels confident enough to hire, Zer0s approval will continue to tank.

Two things need to happen. Taxes and spending need real cutting and that money given back to taxpayers and businesses AND we need a REAL leader at the top to give people confidence to start spending again. Until we get that we remain screwed.

15 posted on 10/29/2009 9:03:47 AM PDT by YankeeReb
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To: dangus

Another round of confidence-crushing, deficit-launching stimulus.


16 posted on 10/29/2009 9:06:26 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: dangus

Great synopsis!

I heard Christine Romer say this morning that GDP for the quarter would have been 0 or negative without government spending, as a result of the stimulus bill, and this would only last for maybe one more quarter. She expects the market to then step in and provide future growth.

It looks like we are near or at the top of a V recovery to me.


17 posted on 10/29/2009 9:21:28 AM PDT by Walleye_Walter
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To: Marty62

Let’s put it this way: Gallup will probably show a very small spike in Obama’s approval ratings over the next few days. That spike will be the high-water mark for Obama for the rest of his administration. When the economy goes down again in 2010, his approval ratings will shrink to the core of non-swing-voting leftists. And that’s if they don’t blame him for not getting the health care bill passed.


18 posted on 10/29/2009 9:43:44 AM PDT by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: Marty62
SORRY ZERO...THIS MONKEY IS ON YOUR BACK NOW.

Thats racist! I think it's a hate crime now too.
19 posted on 10/29/2009 9:47:39 AM PDT by Overtaxed Patriot (Lock and load)
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To: JasonC

>> Oh utter horsefeathers, you can’t selectively remove pieces of the national product accounts and pretend you are measuring the economy. <<

I don’t pretend to be able to report a measurement of the private sector economy shrinking; any subsections of economic growth I cite are the government’s own reports. I only point out that government spending is driving the current growth, and that the growth in government spending is not sustainable. I make no claims such as “Without this growth, the economy would have shrunk 1.3%” nor do I write any predictions, such as that “the economy will shrink in 1Q 2010 by 1-2%” even though many economic experts have made such predictions.


20 posted on 10/29/2009 9:48:56 AM PDT by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: Walleye_Walter

“W” shaped. Hopefully not “n” shaped.


21 posted on 10/29/2009 9:51:37 AM PDT by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: Overtaxed Patriot

Ok now..that was the best I could do in a short time.

but I still think it fits:
Etymology: based on an earlier meaning of a monkey on your back (a habit of using an illegal drug)


22 posted on 10/29/2009 10:17:03 AM PDT by Marty62 (former Marty60)
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To: JasonC

>> I am so sick of people trying to substitute their doom mongering political spin for objective economic or financial analysis <<

I don’t think you’re at all fair to me. I’m not doom-mongering. In fact, I’m fairly bullish on the long-term economy. I don’t believe in peak energy, and I see a huge number of technological advances which could reignite the industrial age, which has heretofore given way to the information age.

I have seen articles predicting 100-trillion-dollar bank failures and the collapse of our entire financial system. Or talk of the “real” unemployment rate hitting 30%. You don’t see that in my articles, because I don’t concur with their predictions. But I do believe the FY2009-2010 growth will be insufficient to reverse escalating unemployment rates within that fiscal year, or restore our budget deficits to economically sustainable levels. And, yes, I believe a debt which grows at a rate less than the rate at which the GDP (unadjusted for inflation!) grows is economically sustainable, so I’ve not even been one of those deficit alarmists... until the deficit went completely berzerk in 2008.

And none of my statements can be predicated on any such economic or fiscal disasters taking place.


23 posted on 10/29/2009 10:17:15 AM PDT by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: FastCoyote
No avail? Tell my 401k.

The GDP rebound is here. The stock market rebound has been here for 6 months. The bond market rebound has been here for 9 months and change. Everyone who has listened to me about it has made money and lots of it.

24 posted on 10/29/2009 3:43:39 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: dangus
You aren't being fair to accounting reality. The rest is commentary. Nobody cares about fairness to you; you don't matter. Economic reality does. You can't selectively include and ignore line items of the national product accounts and pretend your make-believe subset of reality is the economy.
25 posted on 10/29/2009 3:45:24 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: Walleye_Walter
Woulda coulda --- wasn't.

Stop lying.

26 posted on 10/29/2009 3:46:21 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: JasonC

Complain to the US government; they’re who make the “minus motor vehicle” nad “minus food and fuel” categorizations.


27 posted on 10/29/2009 3:55:02 PM PDT by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: knarf

>Yeah ... I got a lil’ Cap’n in me ....

Soon I’ll have a little porter in me. (The problem of living within a block of a brewery is that you can always take a little walk for more.)


28 posted on 10/29/2009 3:58:51 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: JasonC

>> The GDP rebound is here. The stock market rebound has been here for 6 months. The bond market rebound has been here for 9 months and change. Everyone who has listened to me about it has made money and lots of it. <<

For the record, last Fall, I predicted on FR GDP growth by June. In June, I warned on FR not to be fooled by GDP growth of 3-5 percent. My investments are very aggressive, but mostly oversees to capitalize on the weak dollar. They rose 28% last quarter. (Unfortunately, I’m just starting out and have been focused on reducing debt, so that’s 28% of not a lot of money.)

I’ll admit, I didn’t expect the recession to be nearly this bad, arguing in 2Q 2008 that the economy was threatened only by doom and gloomers. But then, I didn’t expect the Bush Administration to scream, “OMG, We’re all going to DIE” to a special joint session of Congress. So events on the ground can always screw up predictions. Again, fortunately, I was paying off debts so wasn’t heavily exposed to the drop.

I’m simply reporting the data, with maybe an attention-grabbing headline; you’re the one giving (remarkably bad) investment advice.

O, and I’m leaving my money in the stock market, just moving more of it towards “Old Europe.”


29 posted on 10/29/2009 4:06:51 PM PDT by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: dangus
Remarkably bad investment advice?

Stop. Lying.

It isn't any cuter when you do it...

30 posted on 10/29/2009 5:49:25 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: dangus
The economy is still WAY BELOW what it was at its peak barely more than a year ago.

Until there's sufficient growth to pull even with the previous high, we will continue to be in serious trouble.

Obama hasn't got a clue about this and neither do any of the Commie pigs he's surrounded himself with.

31 posted on 10/29/2009 7:52:00 PM PDT by muawiyah (Git Out The Way)
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