The Recession is Over; the Depression Continues

Vanity, based on data from BEA and USA Today | 10-29-09 | Dangus

[dangus]

Obama now fully owns the economy. No matter how bad his economic policies hurt the U.S. economy in the Spring, it was very difficult to quantify how much of the recession was his fault, and how much could be blamed on the Bush-Kennedy-Pelosi administration; the faster the economy sank, the lower the bar would be for him to claim credit for its recovery. Now that the recession is "over," however, he must take full blame for another recession.

The depression is not over, however. This Spring, I warned Freepers not to be fooled by a 3rd-quarter "recovery." The economy hasn't truly grown; it's been lifted. The GDP reports include government spending, even deficit spending. The mere action of transfering funds from the government to recipients counts as economic "production." Out of roughly three and one half trillion dollars of such "production" in the past quarter of it, more than three hundred billion dollars (more than five percent!) of it was due to an increase in federal, deficit spending... Yet the economy only grew three and a half percent. In other words, economic production has continued to fall.

Subtracting just the increased production of motor vehicles from the GDP lowers the figure from 3.5% to 1.9%. Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy rose only 0.5%. What happens when you exclude motor vehicles along with food and energy gross domestic purchases isn't part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' report, but it's hard to see how it could be positive.

Is it reasonable to subtract car sales from economic growth? Given that the boost in car sales is due to the government's destruction of existing cars, yes!

Leading indicators in the USA Today Economic Outlook Index already indicate a massive slowdown of growth in the first quarter of 2010:

• The S&P 500 declined in October, despite a robust start, after several months of strong growth.
• The decline in the number of hours worked accelerated in September, after moderating in August.
• Sales of new homes declined in September, despite the homebuyers' credit, suggesting that permits must decline soon.
• Crude oil prices are at their highest prices since last October, over $80 per barrel, after falling into the $30 dollar range.
• Predictably, light vehicle sales are falling again, after the expiration of "Cash for Clunkers"

Some leading indicators are up, but several of these don't make the Obama administration look good.

• The Real federal funds rate is still way below zero, meaning that the government is losing money trying to prop up the economy.
• The ISM export index is soaring... meaning other nations' economies demands are growing much faster than our own. That rate of growth is unsustainable. We're almost back to our 2007 level, after being off more than 40 percent.
  (One last measure, the corporate bond spread is roughly stable, lately.)

These data result in the index dropping from 3% at the end of the year to 2.3% in March, 2010. (Curiously, the most recent updates have been removed from the USA Today web page; these are the data that were up last night.) 2.3% is still healthy, though, isn't it? Unfortunately, the USA Today index is a 6-month trailing, rolling average, meaning that the 2.3% includes some of the same growth that is already scored in the 3rd Quarter 2009 GDP, and all of the 4th quarter GDP growth. That's very close to flat for the 4th-quarter GDP. And keep in mind, the GDP isn't regressed for population growth, so anything less than 1.5% growth is a decline in wealth per capita.

It gets still worse. Keep in mind that the 1st Qtr 2010 is still receiving nearly the full support of the economic "stimulus." Late in 2010, the federal government will reduce the amount by which it is propping up the economy, or be forced to release another round of confidence-crushing, deficit-launching stimulus.

[dangus]

“W” shaped. Hopefully not “n” shaped.

[Marty62]

Ok now..that was the best I could do in a short time.

but I still think it fits:
Etymology: based on an earlier meaning of a monkey on your back (a habit of using an illegal drug)

[dangus]

>> I am so sick of people trying to substitute their doom mongering political spin for objective economic or financial analysis <<

I don’t think you’re at all fair to me. I’m not doom-mongering. In fact, I’m fairly bullish on the long-term economy. I don’t believe in peak energy, and I see a huge number of technological advances which could reignite the industrial age, which has heretofore given way to the information age.

I have seen articles predicting 100-trillion-dollar bank failures and the collapse of our entire financial system. Or talk of the “real” unemployment rate hitting 30%. You don’t see that in my articles, because I don’t concur with their predictions. But I do believe the FY2009-2010 growth will be insufficient to reverse escalating unemployment rates within that fiscal year, or restore our budget deficits to economically sustainable levels. And, yes, I believe a debt which grows at a rate less than the rate at which the GDP (unadjusted for inflation!) grows is economically sustainable, so I’ve not even been one of those deficit alarmists... until the deficit went completely berzerk in 2008.

And none of my statements can be predicated on any such economic or fiscal disasters taking place.

[JasonC]

No avail? Tell my 401k.

The GDP rebound is here. The stock market rebound has been here for 6 months. The bond market rebound has been here for 9 months and change. Everyone who has listened to me about it has made money and lots of it.

[JasonC]

You aren't being fair to accounting reality. The rest is commentary. Nobody cares about fairness to you; you don't matter. Economic reality does. You can't selectively include and ignore line items of the national product accounts and pretend your make-believe subset of reality is the economy.

[JasonC]

Woulda coulda --- wasn't.

Stop lying.

[dangus]

Complain to the US government; they’re who make the “minus motor vehicle” nad “minus food and fuel” categorizations.

[OneWingedShark]

>Yeah ... I got a lil’ Cap’n in me ....

Soon I’ll have a little porter in me. (The problem of living within a block of a brewery is that you can always take a little walk for more.)

[dangus]

>> The GDP rebound is here. The stock market rebound has been here for 6 months. The bond market rebound has been here for 9 months and change. Everyone who has listened to me about it has made money and lots of it. <<

For the record, last Fall, I predicted on FR GDP growth by June. In June, I warned on FR not to be fooled by GDP growth of 3-5 percent. My investments are very aggressive, but mostly oversees to capitalize on the weak dollar. They rose 28% last quarter. (Unfortunately, I’m just starting out and have been focused on reducing debt, so that’s 28% of not a lot of money.)

I’ll admit, I didn’t expect the recession to be nearly this bad, arguing in 2Q 2008 that the economy was threatened only by doom and gloomers. But then, I didn’t expect the Bush Administration to scream, “OMG, We’re all going to DIE” to a special joint session of Congress. So events on the ground can always screw up predictions. Again, fortunately, I was paying off debts so wasn’t heavily exposed to the drop.

I’m simply reporting the data, with maybe an attention-grabbing headline; you’re the one giving (remarkably bad) investment advice.

O, and I’m leaving my money in the stock market, just moving more of it towards “Old Europe.”

[JasonC]

Remarkably bad investment advice?

Stop. Lying.

It isn't any cuter when you do it...

[muawiyah]

The economy is still WAY BELOW what it was at its peak barely more than a year ago.

Until there's sufficient growth to pull even with the previous high, we will continue to be in serious trouble.

Obama hasn't got a clue about this and neither do any of the Commie pigs he's surrounded himself with.