Well, Intrade basically responds to the polls. these came out late. I suspect things will change tomorrow.
Also, intrade is mainly guessing, they don’t really know what’s going to happen. John McCain was at 1% on intrade in the fall of 2007 to win the nomination. Sarah Palin was around 0% on August 28th to be the VP nominee.
But if you do like them, they asay it’s only around 13% that health care will pass this year, which is a good thing.
Intrade is only a snapshot of public opinion on that particular day. It can’t predict the improbable.
Still, if you think Christie will indeed win on Tuesday, there is easy money to be made. $380 will get you $620 next Wednesday.