California 10: The Other Congressional Race

Death by 1000 Papercuts ^ | Nov 2, 2009 | Mondo Frazier

[BAW]

With only four races of national interest in Election 2009, most of the media attention has been focused on the two governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey. Of the two congressional seats up for grabs, New York’s 23rd congressional district race has received the lion’s share of coverage.

But there is another election that will send its victor to Congress: California’s 10th congressional district, which roughly covers the northern part of California’s Bay Area.

IF NY-23 is a referendum of sorts on the policies of the Obama administration, as some have insisted, then isn’t the same hold true for California 10?

While NY-23 runs reddish, it went for Obama in 2008 by 5%. California 10 runs deep blue, with Obama winning by over 30%.

The two contestants are Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi (D) and Republican David Harmer. Garmendi is favored in this blue district and leads in the latest poll last week by CBS Channel 5 by 10%. Harmer, an attorney and author, has fought a surprisingly competitive campaign, though.

Over half of the votes in the election have already been cast, according to CBS-5.

Harmar’s advocates insist that the polls are within the margin of error. That may be (the CBS-5 poll included a sample of 581 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.1), but it seems somewhat unlikely.

However, this is the season of discontent, and might not polls underestimate this factor?

David Harmer’s partisans can certainly hope so.

At any rate, Baehr’s observation that a 10% win for a sitting Lt. Governor in a blue district represents a loss of the support that Democrats displayed only 12 months ago is valid.

The truth will be known 24 hours from now.

[BAW]

It is hard to get votes for a Conservative in the San Francisco Bay area - the belly of the liberal beast. Even if Republican David Harmer does not win, he might still take a bigger percentage of the votes than McCain took in the presidential election, and thus eat into Obama's electoral energy.

[Parley Baer]

I have done my part by sending Harmer my “little guy” $20 contribution.

[Truth is a Weapon]

Me too. But just think what might have been if the RNC and RNCC did not waste $900,000 on Favabeans in NY-23. The leadership of the RNC must go.

[Drango]

I’ve gone done to Harmer’s office and done the phone bank calls.

[Tzimisce]

It’s a liberal blue state. It will stay that way.

[Michael.SF.]

California’s 10th congressional district, which roughly covers the northern part of California’s Bay Area.

Well, not really. The 10th district covers the East bay Area: Walnut Creek, San Ramon, Pleasanton, Livermore.

George Miller's 7th District covers more of the North East bay: Concord, Pleasant Hill, Martinez, Solano County.

[Saab-driving Yuppie]

Me too. But just think what might have been if the RNC and RNCC did not waste $900,000 on Favabeans in NY-23. The leadership of the RNC must go.

I seriously doubt the RNC and NRCC would have ever spent money on this district, even without NY-23. They would have kept it in the bank for 2010.

Kerry and Barry each took this district by around 20. Even though it was represented by a Republican as recently as 1996, re-districting made this a safe Rat seat.

[HamiltonJay]

Conservatism is on a massive unified rise, across the country, it won’t cause wins in the bluest of blue districts for conservatives, but liberal wins will be much smaller.

The reality is simply this,liberals (republican or democrat) and moderates (regardless of party) are going to face bloodbaths in 2010. Only those from the bluest of blue districts will be safe.

Liberal republicans are going to face serious conservative challengers in their primaries, and many will lose their primaries. This will result possibly with some R’s going D in bluer trending districts that had elected the liberal R going D, but it will upend far more of the “blue dog” dems in the General, and also get rid of liberal R’s representing conservative districts.

2010 is going to make 94 look like a cakewalk for the dems.

Only those from the bluest of blue districts will be safe for them. Liberal republicans are going to be taken in primaries around the country as well.

The days of “moderate” (liberal) leading the RNC are over, moderates are welcome in the party, but they won’t be steering the ship.

[Logical me]

IF NY-23 is a referendum of sorts on the policies of the Obama administration, as some have insisted, then isn’t the same hold true for California 10?

Nope. Kalifornia, the clown state, is full of RATS.

[BigBobber]

It’s an off year election and this race is not highly visible. Only the diehards are going to bother to vote tomorrow.

For that reason I think Harmer could pull the upset.

Even if the carpetbagger Garamendi wins by 10% that is a huge drop from last year.

[XHogPilot]

$25 to Harmer from me.